Coronavirus, End of March, 2024

Coronavirus, End of March, 2024

 By the Numbers

It's been a couple of months since the last update.  Not much to report, and that is a good thing.

The Numbers: 

The number of hospitalizations from Covid in the US seems to have hit its peak the first week of January,  and is now in decline.  From 35,000 on Jan 6, 2024 to 9,300 the third week of March.  The overall low in the last 12 months was last May at 6,000. Weekly Covid deaths is down sharply from 2,500 in January to 240 in March.  Covid has dropped to 4th most likely cause of death in the US.  For a reference the leading causes are, in order, Heart Disease, Cancer, Accidents, Covid, then Stroke.

Source Covid-19 hospitalizations here...

Dominant Variants in the US:

JN.1  97.8% up from 7.5% in November

And the rest don't matter...

But at least it was easy to summarize.  

Per CDC tracker...

Too Much of a Good Thing?

A 62 year old man in Germany has been reported to have received 217 Covid vaccines.  In all, he received 8 different types of vaccines.  How and why is not important.  He has now become what is euphemistically called an "Interesting Case Study".

Since then, he has been studied for a number of things of interest to immunologists.

His immune system did not collapse from being overloaded.  Which has been touted by anti-vaccine nutballs as an excuse not to get MMR vaccine.

Other than a sore arm, he is suffering no ill effects.  No liver or kidney damage, no development of auto-immune disease. 

His level of memory and effector T-Cells against Covid is 5 times better than "Wild" Covid, and 11 times better against Omicron. 

He had none of the indicators that he ever contracted Covid.  Which could be from the hyper-vaccination, but could also be just behavioral.

The quality of other antigens he had been vaccinated for showed no degradation.

In all, the German health services ran some 60+ tests on the man.  This is why you do not want to be an "Interesting" case study.

There are many articles on this.  Here is one...

And as a reminder, Don't do this at home folks...

Mixed Blessings

All the tactics deployed to keep Covid from spreading had a collateral effect of having the mildest flu season in over a decade.  Just 5,000 deaths from flu in 2021-22.  The nearest after that was 12,000 in 2011-12.

And it seems like distancing and masks have killed off one of the 4 main strains of flu.  The branch, "Yamagata", hasn't been seen in a couple of years, and this year's flu vaccine will not include it's formula.

The other strains are 2 labeled 'A' H1N1 and H3N2, and 'B', "Victoria".  Article BMJ Yale

Just a refresher.

If you have one or more of the comorbidities (age, weight, diabetes), and test positive for Covid, then getting Paxlovid within 5 days reduces the effects of Covid.  Even though the latest variants are milder, as of mid February, 21,000 still required hospitalization for 2024, and about 10,000 deaths are reported.  Note, that is not 10,000 of the hospitalized. 

Of those hospitalized, 66% are 65 and over.  50% are 75 and over.  And as validation of vaccine effectiveness, only 4% of the those hospitalized had received the latest version of the vaccine out last fall.

The isolation rules have been changed from a hard 5 days to 24 hours fever free.

For 65 and older, a booster shot is being recommended in the spring.  This shot will be the same vaccine as was given in the fall.  

 

 

 

 

Coronavirus, February 2024

Coronavirus, February 2024

 By the Numbers

The Numbers: 

The number of hospitalizations from Covid in the US seems to have hit its peak and is now in decline.  From 15,000 in November to 35,000 on Jan 6, 2024.  By Jan 20, the number of admissions had dropped to 26,600.  For perspective, the low for the year was 6,000 in May.  So the peak did not hit 44,000 that was the first week of January, 2023.  Covid deaths are now about 1,500 a week.  Covid has dropped to 4th most likely cause of death in the US.

Source Covid-19 hospitalizations here...

Dominant Variants in the US:

JN.1  86% up from 7.5% in November
HV.1    5.3% Down from 31% in November
XBB's   1(ish)%  Down from 12% in November
JD 1.1   1.6%, down from 7.7% in November
BA 2.86  1.5%, down from 8.8%  last month
And the rest don't matter...

Per CDC tracker...

All the dominant variants are still "Omicron" derived, and the latest vaccine is still effective at mitigating the symptoms. 

There has been hype about variant JN.1 now being dominant.  But it is mostly filler for the news.  The variant is no more or less lethal than its ancestor.  But again is listed as more virulent.  I have had so many variants listed as "more virulent" that the numbers just don't matter.

Long Covid Update

A Dutch study of 25 Long Covid patients has offered clues as to the reasons for fatigue suffered by Long Covid patients.  ..."acute exercise-induced reduction in skeletal muscle mitochondrial enzyme activity"...  Mitochondria turn sugar and oxygen into energy in cells.  If that is damaged, then the ability to exercise is limited.  So individuals inclined to hit the gym to rebuild their lost muscle mass and endurance can't.

Caveats however are the small sample size of 25 LC patients and a control group of 21. 

Covid v Flu Addendum

I do not think I was totally clear last article on the Covid v Flu differences.  Comparing Covid to Flu deaths last year, 98,000 to 4,900 would give the impression that Covid is 20 times more lethal.  But the number of flu deaths and hospitalizations are also way down from the average.  

In the last 10 years, the worst flu season, 2017/18, claimed 52,000 lives.  The least was 2011/12 with  12,000.  The average was 34,500.  About 1 person in 12 hospitalized by flu dies.   Per the CDC

Since 11/1/2022, with the dominance of the Omicron variant, the number hospitalized for Covid is 7.1 million, 68,000 have died, a percentage of just under 1%.  This seasons Flu has infected an estimated 18-35 million, 200-400 thousand have been hospitalized, of which 13 -38 thousand have died.  About .1% (that's point 1) percent if the estimated infected, and .8% of those hospitalized.  Per the CDC.

These statistics do not paint the complete picture.  And you will have to draw your own conclusions here.  The vast majority of flu sufferers do not get hospitalized.  Probably more than Covid.  But for the last year and then some, it is safe to say most Covid sufferers are also not being hospitalized.  

Since November, the number of weekly hospitalizations due to flu  peeked around Dec 30, at around 2,500, and has started to decline.

saRNA vaccines

Japan has authorized the first 'sa'RNA vaccine for Covid, referred to as "LUNAR-COV19".  The 'sa' stands for self-amplifying. While the previous mRNA vaccines did teach the body to make antibodies against Covid, the saRNA's teach the body to make more mRNA.  In theory this means a much smaller dose is required.  And it should last longer.  

A previous saRNA against flu required just 1/64th the dose.  

At this time, I am reticent about this.  A misfire could cause a "grey-goo" scenario.

For more information see here....

 

Godzilla Raids Again, a movie review.

Its  New Years Day.  The parade(s) are over and I have zero interest in the bowl games.  What to do?  Turner Classic Movies has a Godzilla marathon!  “Godzilla Raids Again”, the sequel to the last years (1954) feel good for the season movie*, “Godzilla”!

Feeling over salted and over fatted from the previous days festivities, I settled down to in front of the screen with an apple and two mandarin oranges.  Even the cat gave me the stink eye at the lack of lickable options. 

I am not sure if I ever saw this movie before.  Checking IMDB reveals it was released under different names, and was taken apart and reedited for a dinosaur flick, “The Volcano Monsters”.

The movie starts with a pilot scouting the ocean for fish for the Kobayashi fishing company.  After directing the Kobayashi Maru to a school of bonito, his radio team gets an emergency call that his buddy, also scouting for fish is going down near some island.

This island is small, you can see the whole thing in a shot, and it has to be near by Osaka, a few hundred miles a most, because the pilot returns there.  But of course, it is on this island we discover Godzilla, in his stop action form.  What are the odds?  Not only that, some other giant monster is there and they are in a brawl. 

The monsters, now in their vinyl suit form,  wrassle till they fall off the island and into the water.  The pilots escape, and tell the world that Godzilla is back, and from the description, the other monster is a giant ankylosaurus.  Mysteriously alive after 65 million years, and not so mysteriously (cough…H-Bomb… cough) grown from 25 feet to 150 feet long.

Japan goes on alert, the “Scientist”, played by an actor last seen in Seven Samurai, first notes that this must be Godzilla’s identical twin brother, since the real Godzilla was last seen stripped to the bone by a mad-scientist’s super acid, and calmly explains that Godzilla is suffering from PTSD from being H-Bombed, and is attracted to, indeed enraged, by lights.  A plan is devised.  When Godzilla shows up, the city will evacuate, go into complete black out, and planes will lure him out to sea with dropped flares.

And it works!  A Godzilla shaped object is first spotted by radar(!)**, the sighting then confirmed by a frigate(!)***.  Drama ensues.  People less than calmly evacuate, the city goes dark with amazing timing.  Not just the city lights, but the cars and trains all turn off their lights in the same second!  The planes fly by, flares are dropped, Godzilla takes a tail swipe at an light house, and heads out to sea.

But that would be a 40 minute movie.  We can’t have that.  So we inject a scene where a dozen prisoners, who are being evacuated, take control of their prison truck and split into 4 or 5 groups.  Police efficiency is at its best, even though there were only 4 police in the truck, every group of convicts has 3 or 4 police chasing them.

Except one group of convicts, who hot-wired a truck.  They were being chased by only 2 police in a commandeered vehicle driven by our hero, the pilot, mentioned in paragraph 4 above, who just happened to be driving by.  I guess when you pay top dollar for an actor, he gets as much face time as you can, no matter how contrived the situation.

They of course, crash into the Osaka refinery, starting a major conflagration, and catching the attention of Godzilla, along with his ankylosaurus wrestling buddy.  Mayhem ensues.  The wrassling kaiju are drawn to Osaka castle like tornadoes to a trailer park, and it is destroyed.      

After that, the budget being tight, Godzilla seems to be satisfied with the destruction in his wake, goes back out to sea.  Where he is found again by our sharp eyed hero, somewhere north of the island of Hokkaido.  What are the odds?  Hokkaido itself is about a 1,000 miles north of Osaka, and Godzilla is north of that!  Running out of fuel (no kidding), his scout plane is replaced by one flown by his buddy introduced in paragraph 4. 

We next see Godzilla in his non-animatronic incarnation (the device just didn’t work, so he just stands there motionless)  as he goes to ground on a small, but mountainous and glacier filled island.

The air force is sent to bomb Godzilla.  The hero pilot asks to join them.  And they accept.  Now he was an Army or Navy pilot during the war, so at least he deserved consideration.  But he has since been flying float planes, and not military jets.  So that would be a hard no all round.  But again, its the movies.  Independence day took this to the logic absurdity putting a drunk crop duster into a F18 super hornet.

Buddy dies because, “drama”, air force arrives, but bombs are useless.  The hero sees there is a chance to bury Godzilla in an icy avalanche.  Air force rearms and buries Godzilla in ice.

Where he will be forever, unless the planet warms up, or maybe, summer.

Could this be the same island that the US Air Force buried the Blob 3 years later?  There's an ugly thought.

*Godzilla came out in Nov, 1954, Godzilla Raids again, April, 1955.  Tells you a lot about the expected production values.

**As a former radar operator of 50's designed equipment, I find this description unlikely.  A big signal return, yes, but Godzilla shaped?  No.  Just a spike on the hash is all you will see.

***Probably a bad translation.  While there is no general definition for the term, "Frigate", but nothing in the post WWII Japanese navy would be described as such. 

Coronavirus, December 2023

Coronavirus, December 2023

 By the Numbers

The Numbers: 

The most recent surge of weekly hospitalization numbers with Covid peaked at around 21,700 for the week ending Sept 19. Then it went into a slow decline to 15,700 by the end of October.  

Since then, the weekly hospitalization has been rising to 18,100 at the end of November.

Source Covid-19 hospitalizations here...

Dominant Variants in the US:

The XBB variant is no longer the dominant variant
HV.1      31.7% which was new in September.
XBB's   12% Down from 42% in September
BA 2.86  8.8%  
JD 1.1     7.7%
EG.5     13% Down from 24% in September
FL 1.5   6% Down from 13.7% in September
HK.3     7.5%
And the rest...

Per CDC tracker...

All the dominant variants are still "Omicron" derived, and the latest vaccine is still effective at mitigating the symptoms.

Covid v Flu 

Since the start of the 2023-2024 Flu season in the US, from Oct 1 to Nov 18, the Flu has claimed an estimated 740-2,200* lives.  During the last (22/23) season, 4,900 deaths in total were from the Flu.

In the same period of time, Covid has claimed 7,573.  98,000 lives since the beginning of the last Flu season.  

So Covid is currently accredited to 3.5 times the number of deaths this season, and almost 20 times since the last season.  

I bring this up because the Covid deniers are still out there, and they are active politically. The Texas legislature passed a bill forbidding employers from mandating Covid vaccines of their employees.  Which includes hospitals.  But hospitals can require unvaccinated individuals to where protective gear, including masks. 

IMHO, Politicians should not be making medical decisions. 

 *Because influenza surveillance does not capture all cases of flu that occur in the U.S., CDC provides these estimated ranges to better reflect the larger burden of influenza. These estimates are calculated based on data collected through CDC’s Influenza Hospitalization Surveillance Network (FluSurv-NET) and are preliminary. (emphasis theirs)

 

Things We All Have Been Taught By Hollywood, That Are Wrong

 Things We All Have Been Taught By Hollywood, That Are Wrong

Anti-Radiation pills

Hollywood would have you believe that you can survive in a radiation hazardous environment by simply taking enough iodine pills.  Twice this year, 2023, I have seen a desperate hero recover from radiation induced weakness by getting to his pills, and having another go at the villain.

How this myth came about is easy to track down.  In areas where there is a nuclear reactor, households are issued iodine pills in case of a reactor melt-down.  The Russians verified this after Chernobyl, that the single most life saving treatment was iodine.

And all this is true.  If a reactor near you releases radioactive materials, one of the things you should do is take an iodine pill, or a couple of multivitamins with iodine.  But not too many though, as Vitamin 'A' does have a toxic level, about 25,000 IUs.  About equal to about 5 pills.  After that, do not ingest anything.  AT ALL.

Mask up, wear long sleeve clothing and put distance between you and the reactor.  Depending on the wind, double the distance reduces your exposure by a factor of 4 or more.  

Hollywood writers are touting iodine pills as this magic protection because they only know one thing, and haven't bothered to do any research into it.  One of the elements created in reactor meltdowns is irradiated iodine.  When in your system, the iodine finds it's way to your thyroid, of which we all are to lesser or greater extent, deficient, and then chemically binds to it.  Taking the iodine pills first, will fill all those holes, so when the irradiated iodine gets there, it finds no place to bind, and is eliminated.  Any irradiated iodine that binds to the thyroid will be emitting highly energetic alpha particles and kill your thyroid.

Radioactive iodine has a half life of 8 days.  So each one that binds, is irradiating your thyroid for 8 days. Then, half of them for another 8 days.  Growing steadily weaker all the time.  After 32 days, the iodine is emitting only 1/16th the radiation it did on day 1.  But if there are no slots to bind, the iodine will be eliminated on the same day.  What radiation it does emit will be spread out over the whole body, and not concentrated in any one place.

Accounting the half life of iodine, after a year, the amount of iodine still radiated is one over 70 trillion the original amount.  Effectively zero. Other radioactive particles are still present, each with their own reduced values depending on their half life values.  Some are less than 8 days, but a lot are more.

So having the hero taking these magic iodine pills 40 years after Chernobyl isn't going to do dink.

Walking with a cane

The actor Hugh Laurie of "House", has done no favors for people learning to use a cane for the first time.  Some people get a cane, and imitate his scrunched over walk, and possibly doing more damage to their legs and posture before being corrected.  See here...

He walks with his cane and damaged leg are on the same side.  This is not the proper use for walking with a cane.  The cane rules state that with a hip problem the cane should always be used on the opposite side to change the D2 lever arm (Click here for a lesson on this)

So why does he walk that way?  If you google why Hugh Laurie is doing it wrong, you will find all kinds of "justification" by the producers of the show that his condition is different and it is really correct.

But really it is because they don't want to admit he was just doing it wrong.  

Once you see it, you cannot unsee it, and I have seen movies in black and white, with actors using the cane both incorrectly and correctly.  They are just acting.  Emphasizing the condition for  the sake of the character in the story. I would bet plays in the centuries past would see the same behaviors

Proper CPR techniques

Everyone has seen CPR being done.  Hero takes turns bouncing on the chest between force breaths upon a heart attack victim.  

But until Damar Hamlin suffered a cardiac arrest in front of millions of Buffalo Bills fans, no one has seen it done correctly on television.

First thing to do is to clear the area.  This includes removal of all clothing around the chest area.  Including cutting the bra off if necessary.   

So the reason Hollywood never does it right has to do with modesty.  But don't think you know how CPR is done because you have "seen it" a thousand times on TV.  Take a course.

Air Duct Sizes.

Air ducts come in all sizes.  The bigger the area needing air, the bigger the ducts.  

Or more importantly, the more the hero needs to get around in secret, the bigger the air ducts.

I have worked on air ducts feeding entire hospital wings.  Getting in them is not possible.

Now the main trunk lines for a major building could take a human.  The problem is that line then sprouts smaller ducts that go to the actual rooms.  So the hero isn't going to have that dramatic access just in a nick of time.  

And when have you ever seen ribbons on an actual air duct showing air is flowing?

Helmets Must be Useless.

A movie hero will throw away his helmet as soon as he gets into combat.  Protection value be damned, an actors face time is the primary concern in any sword fight.

Ranged Weapons are Useless.

Ranged weapons have been effective for over 300 years now.  Why else would armies issue them to the rank and file troops.  But Hollywood would have you believe they are good for about two shots, and both will miss, and then it's hand-to-hand combat.  How man episodes of Star Trek, end in a brawl, after a million tons of high tech equipment fail to protect their captain and crew?

Coronavirus, September 2023

 Coronavirus, September 2023

 By the Numbers

The Numbers: 

The weekly hospitalization numbers with Covid was 19,600 for the week ending Sept 19. This is up from 12,600 around Aug 12. For perspective, the lowest weekly hospitalization numbers was in June, 2023 at 6,200. The highest was over 100k last year.

Source Covid-19 hospitalizations here...

Dominant Variants in the US:

XBB's 42% Down from 60% in Mid Aug
EG.5   24.5% Barely moving from 23.9% in Mid Aug
FL 1.5 13.7% Barely moving from 13.3% in mid Aug
HV.1     8.4% New in September.

And the rest...

Per CDC tracker...

The New Booster is Available

Various pharmacies have the latest booster available by appointment. I got mine from CVS. You can make your appointment here...

The cost was covered by my insurance. They will try to upsell you with a flu shot as well.
 

3 more and my next one is free! (wait a minute...)

Updates on Long Covid

From NBC News ... A study has been published about sufferers of long Covid have common features in their blood work.  The study was with 268 people who are a mix of fully recovered, never infected and the remainder having symptoms associated with long Covid like fatigue, shortness of breath, trembling, memory problems.

The Long Covid group has decreased amounts of cortisol, a hormone that makes people feel alert.  Also noted was patterns of T cells acting "irregular".  I'm sorry, that is how the article described it and I realize it is not helpful. 

More significantly, the study found that dormant viruses, like mononucleosis, reactivated in long Covid patients.  Different viruses would manifest in different ways, which could explain why long Covid patients have a variety of symptoms.  

The CDC reports that 7.5 percent of Americans have been affected by long Covid.  It is not clear how many of those have fully recovered.   

Free At Home Covid Tests

The government will ship another set of Covid tests to your door. The main reason is not necessarily the current upswing of cases, but to incentivize keeping open the assembly lines in case the numbers get much worse.   You can order them from this link...

 

Older tests on the shelf have all hit their "best buy" date. You don't need to dispose of them. The rule of thumb is this. If you use an old test, and it says you have Covid, then that is accurate. But a negative reading cannot be trusted, and an up to date test will be required.

The Donald Went Down to Georgia

My apologies to the Charlie Daniels Band

The Donald Went Down to Georgia, he was lookin’ for votes to steal
He was in a bind ‘ he was way behind
And he was willin' to make a deal

When he came across this governor man maken deals and playin' it hot
And the Donald made a conference call
And said, "boy, let me tell you what"

“You may not know this, but I’m  a deal maker too
The best there is, and I’ll make a deal with you.
Now you’re a pretty good governor boy,
I’ll give you your due
Just 12,000 votes against the USA’s soul
'Cause I know I'm better than you"

The governor said, "my name's Kemp and I know that its a sin
But I'll take your call, you're gonna regret
'Cause I'm the best there's ever been"

Kemp, call up your constitutional scholars now,
'Cause Hell's broke loose in Georgia, when Forty-Five deals the cards
If you win, you get this foot note in the history books
But if you lose, the USA loses it’s soul

The Donald opened up his case and he said, "I'll start this show"
And fire flew from the phone as his bombast began to flow
Their Twitter feeds went ding
His sycophants made an evil hiss
Then a band of lawyers joined in
And it sounded something like this

11,780 votes, Hilary, Laptop, Election stolen lies, fake news, etc…

When the Donald finished, Kemp said, "Not good enough, ol' son
But sit down in that chair right there
And let me show you how it's done"

"Election Fraud Lies, Oh come on…"
“More Ballots Cast than Voters, Really now?”
“Dead Voters Casting Ballots, There were exactly two.”
“Vote Routed Through Frankfort, Germany?  How does that work?”

The Donald bowed his head because he knew that he'd been beat
And he left the conference call in a huff, offering no conceit.  
Krmp said, "Donald, just come on back if you ever wanna try again
Attorney Carr will be indict if you ever wanna try again