Coronavirus, Early
February, 2021
By the Numbers
Deceptive Vaccine Headlines:
I have seen a number of headlines that read "something" disheartening about
the vaccine, only to open it up and find that it is just that, a headline, that
technically is true, but totally deceptive.
For Example: 17-year-old was hospitalized in an ICU unit after
receiving second coronavirus vaccine dose.
Totally true. However the text
notes this was after 2 days and has intense chest pains and nothing else. Not even an implied cause and effect other
than the headline. And it happened in
another country, and so not likely one of our vaccines.
Another one screamed about a
doctor being hospitalized after getting the vaccine, and the article pointed
out it was a week later, and the hospitalization was not vaccine related.
Then
there is the nurse that was the first in the USA to receive the
vaccine, getting the virus a week later. Lunatic fringe groups are now
claiming she died. The clamor is so much, the hospital has presented
her several times to the media.
Think about the
probability. The mortality rate of the USA
at 18 people per million, per day.
We have injected the vaccine
into 35 million as of this writing. Probability
suggests that 630 of them have died on today alone.
Doesn’t matter which day, pick any one.
“Virus cases are falling more
sharply in the U.S. than at any previous point.” Another absolutely true, and totally
misleading headline. The day before the
NYT published this, we had 151,000 new cases, down from the 301,000 peak on Jan
8. What is buried in the text is that in
September, we had 36,000 new cases per day.
So, down 50% from peak, but up 420% from Summer. It all depends on the emotion you want to
convey.
So don’t get excited by
headlines. Read the article. The headlines can, and do, give you a false
impression.
On AntiVaxers: The antivax conversation has been in the
chatter since at least last summer. Initially it was
extremist rhetoric in an era of having no choice anyway. With the existence of a vaccine it has now
become a concern for those whose personal threshold of risk is lower than
average. My opinion on them is to “let
it go”. Statistically, as long as vaccines don’t go
wanting for lack of arms, this not something to be concerned about.
The whole plan is about the
percentages. To me, it doesn’t affect
the infection count one wit if someone passes on the vaccine and another gets
it in their stead. The overall
protection of the herd has increased. So
until almost everyone is vaccinated, it is not worth the argument.
In truth, it just raises the
angst level of the population and we don’t need that either.
Their concerns are valid. These vaccines have not been tested to the
level they would in a normal world. We
do not know the long term effects. This
time around, the whole world is on “3rd stage trials”. And if your risk aversion is not up to it,
then so be it.
Next year, there will be a headline somewhere about
someone refusing to be vaccinated giving Corona to his dear old auntie, whose
immune system wouldn’t permit it as well.
With billions of people and millions of reporters looking, it is going to happen. But so are two people passing it on to each
other because it is only 95% effective.
So the odds would be 1 in 400.
But what we won’t see anymore is C-19 being passed on in super spreader
events.
An anecdotal example: My wife has a lower risk level than I. I see it in a number of things. She starts getting antsy when the gas tank is
at ¼ full. I drive to ‘E’. But then, she has run out of gas a few times,
me only once, and at that time I was able to coast to the next gas station. And there is a big culture difference between
a helpless woman at the side of the road and a 6’ 2” foot male. So her concern is valid.
She also restocks toilet paper
when a fresh case is broken open. Or
when it’s on sale. I figure each of the
three bath rooms has 4 rolls available, and will wait till the fresh case has
been distributed. FYI, when the hoarding
of TP was a thing last year, we were still on November’s supply which ran to June. :)
On Herd Immunity:
There is a real world example
that trying to reach “Herd Immunity” through natural means is not a good idea. Brazil’s overall leadership is following the
Trump model, including denial, expectation of a miracle and promoting
treatments that do not work.
Manaus, a city in Brazil of
some 2 million people, had 2/3rds of their population infected by June of last
year. Also noted during the April – June
period, they were the first city in Brazil to dig mass grave sites
getting there. By the end of June the
C-19 infections did go to a minimum level and they largely went back to normal
behavior believing they had achieved “Herd Immunity.” Starting in September, however, what immunity
that was conferred started wearing off.
Currently their death rate is 200 per day, in a city where 40 per day
were considered normal. As compared to
the USA where the death rate is 18 per million per day. (see previous comments about headlines)
There is no hard number as to
what constitutes Herd Immunity, but estimates range from 70-85%. So 66% isn’t quite there, but was considered
good enough.
The reason is the type of
protection the body’s immune system uses against C-19. The body has long term protection plans and
short term protection plans. For what
ever reason, C-19 is being treated as a short term plan by the body, like the
common cold. And so the protection
generated by the body after natural exposure seems to last 3-6 months. The theory is that if the body regarded every
infection as long term, we would be nothing but immune system libraries.
Other News:
Merck has canceled its vaccine
project, citing disappointing test results.
Johnson and Johnson are
posting good news with their trials.
They are posting that their vaccine prevented 66% of moderate and severe
cases, and 85% of severe cases, 100% hospitalizations and deaths. The chief advantage of the J&J vaccine is
that it is one shot and done. I have
conflicting reports on when it will be available. J&J are saying March. Another report says next (Jan31-Feb 7)
week.
Novavax, an American firm, has
passed clinical trials with its vaccine tested in Britain and South
Africa. The company announced its
results on January 28th. In the British trial, the Novavax vaccine was nearly
90% effective against symptomatic covid-19 when given in two doses 21 days
apart. In South Africa, however, the same regimen was only 60% effective (and
down to 49% when people with HIV were included)—though these figures are still
preliminary and may change)
Of all the current approved
vaccine regimens, there is not a single known death from C-19 for anyone that
has had the vaccine. And the number of cases of hospitalization required if
C-19 is caught is way down.
A couple of weeks ago
Pennsylvania announced it would be offering the vaccine to the next priority
tier (1B). This was based on the Trump
Administration recommendation. However
it has since come to light that the federal stockpile was depleted and could
not support the additional load this entailed.
So PA is back to tier 1A.
The number of new infections
has declined somewhat. To around 125,000
per day, down from their peak of 300,000 in early January. This puts us about where we were in early-November. But the death rate, a lagging indicator, hovered
at around 4,000 per day, only dropping to 3,000 per day in February. This is actually raising the mortality rate
for the first time since April, 2020. Last
month, the mortality rate was around .8%, it is now closer to 1.5%. I assume hospital overload is the cause of
this.
Updates on the new strains:
The mutation from the UK is
called Kent. It spreads faster than the
original version, and is no less lethal, and is becoming the dominant strain in
the UK. Fortunately, the current
vaccines should handle it.
The other prominent version is
called South Africa. It spreads faster
than the original version, and is no less lethal. It is more resistant to anti-bodies used to
target it, reducing the effectiveness of the vaccine.
Some headlines will mention
these are deadlier versions, and from the point of view they spread more
easily, they are. But at this time, they
do not show higher mortality rates if you catch one of them. At the risk of repeating myself, vaccinated
people that do catch C-19, even the South Africa mutation, are shown to have much
lighter symptoms, and so far, no deaths.
Both strains have been found
in the US. Tracking efforts have failed
to determine how they got here.
(Spontaneous Generation?)
Modura is reworking their
vaccine to deal with these variants.
In the US, 35 million have
received the first dose of the vaccine. About
8 million the second dose. We are
currently tracking for 75% of the population to be immunized by September.
Boiler Plate:
We hit 450,000 deaths before months end. The surge from the
gatherings during Christmas peaked on Jan 8th at over 300,000 new
cases. For most of January, the daily
death count was over 4,000 a day, where it still hovers to this day. Depending
on your state, the current growth in new cases is between 5 and 10 times what
it was in September. In my state, Pennsylvania, from 700 new
cases per day in September to 10,000 on Jan 8, before settling down to 3,700 on
Jan 31.
The total
number of active cases on Feb 4, I estimate* to be at 4.15 million, even though on the CDC website it is listed as 11 million. This is up from an estimated 850,000
in September using the same methodology, and down from a peak of 5.3 million on January 19 -20.
*Since the states have done a lousy job of keeping up with "recovered" patients, the official active case count is inaccurate, but you can't just ignore the CDC numbers. They are the official ones.
To deal with this problem I am using a formula. The virus runs around 21 days, so I count up the last 21 days of new cases, and multiply by 6% to account for ICU cases which can take up to 6 weeks. This gives me an estimate of active cases. This may be a bit on the high side. But I am probably within 20% of "real". I feel this gives a better consistent result. I am more interested in the percentage increase/decrease than the exact number.
