Coronavirus, Late January Edition, 2022

 Coronavirus, Late January Edition, 2022 <heavy sigh>

By the Numbers

 

The Numbers:

The Omicron surge seems to have peaked on Jan 17th, and since then, the number of daily new cases has declined by 1.8%, per day, for 11 days now.  From 780,000 new cases a day to 497,000 yesterday.

My estimated number of current cases peaked on Jan 21 at 10.3 million cases, more on that calculation later..  The winter wave last year peaked on Jan 19 at 5.3 million.  The near coincidence of those days implies causality.  Probably a combination of a harmonic of the incubation period and holiday get together, followed by the winter doldrums.  I'm sure there will be many PHD theses's (thesisi? Hell-- Dissertation)  in years to come that will be looking at those stats.  

Last year, the daily new cases peaked at 301,000 on Jan 8, 2021.

A note on my estimated number for current cases.  Until Omicron, I based this number by summing up 3 weeks new cases, and multiplied by 1.06 to account for severe cases that last longer.  Omicron seems to have a shorter duration, and fewer severe cases, so I altered the formula to sum up 2 weeks cases and multiplied by 1.03.  And when I reduced the count with the overall formula, the Omicron variant has just about twice the number of active cases despite the shorter sick time and lower severity.   

Keep in mind also, that the Omicron counts are definitely under counted.  The medical system was drastically overloaded and test kit shortages were everywhere led to frustration and people just went home to suffer there.  Fortunately, most Omicron cases seem to devolve down to a really, really, bad case of the flu, followed by a nagging bronchial cough that could last months.

 

Free Covid Test Kits:

In response to the test kit shortage everywhere, the federal government will ship 4 test kits, tuned to include Omicron, to your home.  Just follow this link.  What is good about this is you don't have to wait anywhere and you will just know.  What is bad, is the number of tests executed and return positive is unknown to the medical authorities, and reduces their ability to track the pandemic.  This is one of the reasons why any numbers you see are going to be low.  For instance, Johns Hopkins had reported several days of over a million new cases, while the official numbers never broke 900,000.  I assume that Johns Hopkins's plus number had some way of factoring in the unknowns.  As one of the premier medical systems on the planet, I have to assume they know what they are talking about.

 

Omicron Death Counts: 

I try to avoid the morbid death counts.  I don't even track them.  There are plenty of places to get them if you want to.  Omicron is certainly less fatal one on one, but there are a lot more ones.  The number of fatalities is now exceeding the Delta wave.  Over 3,100 yesterday.  The peak death count for the Delta wave seems to be around 2,800.  I expect the Omicron death count to climb, as it is a lagging indicator by several weeks on the new case numbers.  And they peaked about 11 days ago. 

 

Covid susceptibility  in your genes?:

Polish scientists have discovered a gene that they say more than doubles the risk of falling severely ill with, or even dying from Covid-19.  The University of Bialystock has determined that the gene is present in 14% of the Polish population, 9% of Europe overall, and 27% in India.

By their calculations, it is the fourth most important factor determining the severity of the illness after age, weight and gender.

 

For more details, but not much more, see here....

 

This is why I will not submit to one of those gene testing sites.  Once you have been typed, it is only a matter of time before the insurance companies will find out and make your genetics a pre-existing condition.  Another reason for the USA to adopt a universal (single-payer) health care system.

 

CBD as a Preventive Treatment for Covid?

CBD, or  Cannabidiol has it's fans.  Quite a large number of them.  I am NOT one of them.  I wrote an article on the subject earlier this year in response to my Chiropractor, whom I fired, for pushing the stuff.  So when I read the headline, "Oral CBD Prevented COVID-19 Infection in Real-World Patients, Study Suggests", I had to delve into it.   

Short form: The authors state in line 1, "While not a substitute for vaccines, CBD..."

 

Long form:  There is an explanation on why they think CBD is effective.  And the study was fairly large at 1,212 people.  It demonstrated that patients taking an dosage defined as 100mg/ml CBD having significantly fewer "breakthrough infections".  The patients seem to have all been taking CBD for seizure-related conditions already and they demonstrated 6.2% infected with Covid, compared to 8.9% of the control group.

 

A note here, so far, despite all the claims of the benefits of CBD overall, like migraine, muscle pain, high blood pressure, and many, many more, it has only proven efficacy for epilepsy in children.  So a testing group of patients for seizures seems like a natural follow-up.

The journal this study was reported in, Science Advances, is listed as a peer reviewed journal, but there is some criticism on it's methodologies, but frankly, I am not qualified to offer an opinion on it.  

The dosage listed is confusing, as it is listed as a concentration level, and not a dose amount.  I dug into the term listed, CBD100, and got no further clarification on the dosage.

I would take the advice of the study's authors, “What we don't want… is people just running out and thinking, ‘I can take CBD, and then I don't have to get vaccinated or I don't have to be masked,’” Rosner said. “This is what we really don't want to see.”

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Coronavirus, The First Edition, 2022

 Coronavirus, The First Edition, 2022

By the Numbers

 

The Numbers:

The Omicron surge continues to be breathtaking.  The daily new cases blew past the previous record by almost double at 849,000 on Friday, Jan 7.  Pennsylvania broke its record new case numbers as well, with 32,000 on the same day.  My estimate on total number of cases is over 7.5 million. Triple what it was 2 weeks ago.

And this is only the official cases.  There is a shortage of test kits everywhere, so this number is certainly under counted.  John's Hopkins is reporting more than a million new cases per day for several days now. 

As an example, my sister probably caught Covid.  She attended a concert with a friend whose husband had tested positive, and she now has the mid range symptoms, but didn't want to wait 4 hours in the car to get tested.  

I have seen headlines that Omicron is "peaking".  I can say the percentage growth in new cases is reducing, from 14% per day last week to 7% per day this week.  You judge whether or not that is "peaking".

Omicron update:

Fortunately, Omicron continues to be more benign than previous variants.  And hospitals are only now just hitting peak, despite an estimated 300% higher count in the total number of cases over just 2 weeks ago. This is still a very bad thing, as hospitals are now cancelling surgeries to deal with the deluge.  

We now have some very solid numbers.  These are derived from an article from NPR.ORG.

 From initial infection, to onset of symptoms with Omicron is 3 days.  Delta was 4, and pre-alpha was 5.

Omicron is 2/3rds less likely to send you to the ER.  From 15% to 5%.

Omicron is half as likely to send you to the hospital overall, from 4% to 2%.

If hospitalized, the chances of going to the ICU is halved as well, from .8% to .4%.

And being on a ventilator from .4% to .1%

Evidence continues to point to Omicron residing more in the bronchial tubes vice the lungs.

The symptom of loss of smell and taste is not as common with Omicron. 

However, other symptoms, fever, gastrointestinal problems, aches and pains, brain fog, weakness are still in effect. 

Your odds skew much better if you are vaccinated, or have recently recovered from Delta. In hospitals, 80% of the Covid patients are still among the unvaccinated.

The net of this is that Omicron is between 1/10 to 1/2 as debilitating as Delta, but we have more than 4 times as many cases today, 8.7 million, and that number is low, then we had 30 days ago, at 2 million.

Fed up with Covid?:

There have been a number of articles, some pushed by the Drudgereport, of those that are tired of Covid, and are just going to live with it.  

Sometimes I'm tired of the traffic laws, but that doesn't mean I cross the lane divide and into oncoming traffic.

You can't make this stuff up:

North Korea held a massive rally to show support for the government's efforts in fighting Covid.

 

An update on "ReAwaken America":

2 weeks ago, I reported about a conspiracy convention, "ReAwaken America",where a number of their members had developed Covid symptoms, and blamed an anthrax attack.  

One of the infected members, Doug Kuzma, after 5 days of being ill, replied to a suggestion that he have a Covid test with, "no way"!  It was just his chronic bronchitis, or maybe anthrax. But either way, there was a photo of himself with a container of Ivermectin.  Is Ivermectin a proper treatment for anthrax?

He was found unconscious at his home on Christmas Eve, hospitalized, and died 10 days later.

Before anyone comments on me making light on what is a personal tragedy for Mr. Kuzma. I will point out that he was a podcaster and doing his best to rage against the vaccines that would have saved his life and others

 

I lost sympathy with him and his ilk about half a million deaths ago.

 

Personal count:

My personal count of Covid is now 18, 2 dead, 5 with long hauler symptoms.