Coronavirus, Very Late July, 2023

 Coronavirus, Very Late July, 2023

 By the Numbers

The Numbers: 

The weekly hospitalization numbers with Covid was 7,100 last week.  It was at 7,000 in early June, and dipped to about 6,200 in between.  Which could be due to school being out, and the little ones not churning the pot as much.

Source Covid-19 hospitalizations here...

Dominant Variants in the US: 

    XBB's  83%    Down from 97%  in June
    EG.5  11.5%  Up from zero in June

    And the rest...

The XBB variant is immune to treatment with monoclonal antibodies.

Per CDC tracker...

Covid Summer Bump

The main Covid news is about the increase in Covid hospitalized cases reported late this month.  Explanations as to why range from new variants to increased traveling. 

My theory, and it is just my theory, is that our Covid immunity is timing out.  The body has has two types of immune memory.  One is short term, like with the common cold or flu, and the other is long term, like mumps and measles.  Our body's defenses treat Covid like a cold and relegate it to short term memory.  So the 4th booster shots and last major surges in December are timing out.  Combined with increased exposure through things like air travel and other normal human behavior, and you have a bump.

What is Variant EG.5?

It looks like Omicron variant XBB's dominance is being challenged by the EG.5 Variant.  My observations are that if a variant hits 5% against the champ, that it will become dominant in the future.  Again, that is just my opinion.  

EG.5 is variant of XBB.1,9.2.  With an extra spike mutation, which rates a different alphabet designation.  There is no increase in cases or deaths or that infections involving the virus are more severe.

Excess Deaths (good news)

The Excess Deaths indicator lags real time by a few months, as it takes time to assemble all the information.  It was one of the indicators used to shut down the Covid deniers arguments that Covid was being excessively counted.  If anything, the number of deaths caused by Covid was under counted by several hundred thousand.  See here, around the 3rd page.

At its peak, the excess deaths in the US was over 30% than it should have been.  Most of 2022 was 8%.   Since February, 2023, the number has hit zero, and possibly gone a bit into the negative numbers.

The virus isn't gone, as about 80 people die each day from/with Covid.  Out of an average of 7,700 total deaths per day.  So those of us with immune deficiencies need to take their normal precautions.  As they would anyway to protect themselves from every other communicable disease.  

The Next Vaccine

I have not found any real information about the next vaccine to be available for this fall.  I have seen recommendations of what it could be, but nothing real.

All the original vaccines have been retired.  The current one available is a bivalent version of both the original and the original Omicron variant BA.4.  

Giuliani admits he lied in Gerogia vote fraud claims

Update, July 2023.  In court papers filed by Rudolph W. Giuliani, he conceded that while acting as a lawyer for former President Donald J. Trump, he made false statements by asserting that two Georgia election workers had mishandled ballots while counting votes in Atlanta during the 2020 election.

This was in response to Giuliani being sued for defamation of character by some of the vote counters in Georgia.  Naming them by name and accusing them of stuffing the ballot box.  So this is the only lie he has so far admitted to. 

Mr. Giuliani’s declaration conceded that his clients had “honorably performed their civic duties in the 2020 presidential election in full compliance with the law, and the allegations of election fraud he and former President Trump made against them have been false since Day 1.”

The Case Against Ethanol

I had an opportunity last week to put pure gasoline in my car.  It is a Nissian Altima,  2.5 liter engine and a continuous velocity transmission. The tank size is 18 gallons.  I was able to top it up with 15 gallons.  I monitor my mileage closely and had an opportunity to go from the gas station almost straight to the highway for my return trip home.  Traveling between 65 and 72 MPH, and 60 miles later, the dash indicator read my car was getting 49.3 MPG.  Similar runs in the past have topped off at 43.5 MPG.  A 13% improvement. 

I despise the "watering down" of our gasoline with ethanol.  Most of the reasons for blending our fuel, is at best, specious.  And in many cases an lie.  

The reasons why have to do energy security.  So we are not beholden to OPEC.  A secondary reason is it added to help oxygenate the fuel for a better burn.  Ethanol is considered also a cleaner burning fuel.

But the real reason is of course, the money.  Economists regard ethanol for fueling vehicles as a farm subsidiarity.  It doesn't add or subtract from the economy as a whole, it just shifts the dollars around.

Some of the numbers:

    Energy in a gallon of Gasoline:  115,000 BTUs

    Energy in a gallon of Ethanol :   75,500 BTUs

    Energy in a gallon of 90/10 blended Gasoline:  111,050 BTUs

        Energy difference, 3.5% less

    Price Barrel Oil (7/1/2023):  $70.50

    Price Barrel Ethanol (7/1/2023):  $105.84

The energy cost to create a gallon of Ethanol:  Currently, the state of the art, is at 37,000 BTU's.  But plants from an earlier era actually took more energy to create the Ethanol than you get out of it.  95,000 BTU's in 2005.  Many of those are probably still in operation.  So the goal to obtain energy independence in the 90's and 2000's was just an out and out lie.

And this is reflected in the cost.  Ethanol costs more than gasoline.  For the numbers of July 1, this adds about 5%, or 18 cents per gallon.

How much less miles per gallon do you get from adulterated gas?  The energy difference is 3.5% less, and that would imply just 3.5% less MPG's.  But how much really?  The Ethanol industry will tell you that there is zero loss in MPG's.  And any difference is due to the changes in driving style.

Which of course is utter bullshit.

This link is provided by someone who also experimented over time, and got 7% better mileage.  He logs in 10 tanks of adulterated gas against 10 tanks of pure gas.

Regarding "Cleaner burn."  While the ethanol itself burns cleaner than gasoline.  It is not cleaner if you consider the BTU's spent to create a gallon of this cleaner fuel.

Then there is the cost of burning up our ground to grow excessive amounts of corn.  Which we don't need for food.  More fertilizers and chemicals into the environment.   Between 25 and 40% of our corn acreage is for Ethanol production. 

So there you have it.  We have a fuel that costs more, has less value, and pollutes more or less the same.  

So why are we still using it?