Coronavirus, the Late April Edition

 Coronavirus, the Late April Edition

By the Numbers 

The  nationwide increase in the number of active cases seems to have plateaued, and may be dropping slightly.  From an estimated number of 1,347,000 on Mar 22 to 1,612,000 on April 22.  Down to 1,535,000 on April 27.

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The hold on the J&J one shot vaccine has been lifted.  From what I can dig up, the hold was put on because it was thought a blood clot problem (thrombosis) developed in 7 out of 1,000,000 woman, ages 18-49, 7-14 days after receiving the vaccine.  An that at least 2 of them died. 

Upon review, only 15 cases were identified out of  8,000,000 vaccinated individuals.  All the cases were women, none died.  9 women had low platelet counts (thrombocytopenia).

For more information see: https://www.cnn.com/2021/04/26/health/blood-clots-johnson-johnson-vaccine-wellness/index.html

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The big news is that researchers in Lubbock, Texas, has discovered the mechanism with which Covid causes long term health effects.

The short form, it's editing the genes.

The study refers to patients with chronic long term effects like skin problems, shortness of breath, losing the sense of taste or smell, kidney and lung damage known as "Long Haulers".  I suspect we are going to see more of that word in the future. 

A brief article is at  https://www.studyfinds.org/covid-alters-genes-long-haulers/

While most Long Haulers are in high risk categories for Covid, there is a  growing percentage of people who were otherwise healthy before they became infected. But, the new cases of Covid are more affecting healthier individuals then before. 

Researchers of the BMA (British Medical Association) estimate about 10% of COVID-19 patients become Long Haulers, according to a recent article from The Journal of the American Medical Association and a study done by British scientists. 

Reading some of the research material says that 10% means 10% of all who tested positive have symptoms continuing beyond 12 weeks. Source: the BMJ a journal published by the British Medical Association.

Worst Movies Ever

 The Worst Movies of All Time

When I first started this list, I thought it would be easy.  But as things developed I realized there is a difference between "bad" movies, and movies I just didn't like.

For example,  I hated Clockwork Orange, but it has a cult following and if I have to think about it, it wasn't a bad movie.  I didn't like Schindler's List either, but would never say it was bad.

And thanks to all that offered suggestions.  I seem to have avoided a lot of stinkers out there :)
And no, I am not going to watch any of them to see if we agree ;)

So here are the genuine bad movies.  Some of which I actually liked, like Inframan, but it still is a bad movie.

8mm (the karma of the world would be raised by some amount if we tracked down and destroyed every copy of this movie)

Atlantic Rim (not a typo)
Attack of the Killer Tomatoes
Austin Powers (just pick one, any one)
Barbarella
Battlefield Earth

Bridge to Terabithia
Buckaroo Banzai
Caligula
Cats (And I have seen the play many times and loved it)
Cry Wilderness

Destroy All Planets
Frankenstein Island  (A close second to Plan 9 From Outer Space)
Frankenstein Meets the Spacemonster
Gamera vs Guiron
Godzilla, Mothra, and King Ghidorah: Giant Monsters All-Out Attack, (2001)
        Imagine men in suits with the obvious special effects of the Scy-Fy channel.      
        Now add in just two ok actors and a bunch bad actors.  Now shrink Godzilla to half size.
        Now ignore canon, which may be the only thing holding 50 years of Godzilla movies together.  
        But at least Gadzuki wasn't in it.

Godzilla vs Kong (2021)
Hawk, the Slayer (but not the worst movie with Jack Parlance in it)
Heavens Gate
Howard the Duck
Inframan (I liked the movie, but it is bad)

King Kong vs Godzilla (1963)
Master of Disguise (My son made me watch it)
Max and Me
Mission Stardust (I'm a Perry Rhodan fan, what a disappointment!)
Plan 9 From Outer Space (I finally saw it out of research)

Prince of Space
Santa Claus Conquers the Martians (I actually saw that one in the theater)
Space Probe Taurus
Star Trek V (Sad to say, I saw this one in the theater also...)
Starcrash

Super Mario Brothers
Superman IV
The Avengers (Fiennes/Thurman/Connery)
The Big Lebowski (really bad, but it has a huge cult following)
The Shape of Things to Come (This is the worst movie with Jack Parlance in it)

The White Buffalo
Thunderbird 6
This is Spinal Tap (really bad, and has a huge cult following)
Wonder Woman 1984

Coronavirus, the Ides of April Edition

Coronavirus, the Ides of April Edition

By the Numbers

For some of these reports, nothing much new happens for weeks, and others I start writing right after publishing.  For this the point was with the numbers.  There has been chatter of a new surge of cases, especially in Europe, but my numbers were not showing much increase nationwide.  Some states were climbing a little, others were falling, and nationwide the number of new cases per day had stabilized.  

And now the curve has shown to have bottomed out from the major drop in February to early March and is starting to climb again.  

Percentage wise, over half the states have seen an increase in the total number of new daily active cases in excess of 10%, 10 states over 30%, while only 10 have see a drop of 10%.  

Vermont and Delaware over 40%.  But in total that is still only 1,110 actual cases for a whole week.  So it’s major for them, but nationally, just a blib.

Michigan is close behind at 39% but because of its greater population, is adding 10,300 new cases

Followed by New Jersey, New York, Illinois, Florida and Pennsylvania each between 5-6,000 new cases.

And like the sudden drop earlier this year, no one can justify why the numbers are going up.  Latest theory is the dominant strain in the US is “Kent”, more infectious, and no less deadly.  The current vaccine regimen is capable of dealing with it.

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Despite some heavily promoted headlines, the vaccines do have efficacy against the “South African” strain.  Not as well as against other variants, but still within desired parameters.  Patients catching that strain that have been vaccinated suffer far less than normal as well.  Despite ominous terms like vaccine evasion, you are still better with the vaccine then without.  Preliminary reports regarding South African and the J&J shows reduces the severity of the disease, while Pfizer and Moderna are still at least 60% effective.  For more information, refer to this New York Times article.

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J&J’s “one shot” vaccine has been paused pending research on blood clots being observed.  The numbers I have are 7 million people have received the vaccine, and 6 recipients have reported with the problem.  1 fatally so, 1 in critical condition.  As near as I can determine, in Europe the numbers are 2 million recipients, and 4 cases, 1 of which was fatal.  But before we declare this is literally 1 in a million. I noticed that all the articles were pointing to just a report from Nebraska.  Which means, if there is a problem here, it's in all the states, but not getting attention from the press.  If the vaccine is causing this problem, it may be 1 in 100,000 or more. 

Which is why J&J's is paused.  To give the CDC a chance to gather more data.

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A study posted in the Lancet is showing that a third of Covid-19 survivors were diagnosed with a brain or psychiatric disorder within six months, suggesting the pandemic could lead to a wave of mental and neurological problems,  This did not seem to be related to how severe the infection was.

Also, among the severe Covid cases, 7% suffered a stroke within 6 months.  

This is a highly detailed study, encompassing 240,000 patients and comparing against “normal” groups against 55 factors, like Sex, Race, Age, economic situation, Obesity, Blood pressure.  A large enough control group to separate normal anxiety pressures from enforced isolation from disease caused.

Covid seems to attack the vascular system, and as blood goes everywhere.  Just about any system can be damaged, including the brain.  

For more details here is the Lancet publication.   https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanpsy/article/PIIS2215-0366(21)00084-5/fulltext#sec1

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The Texas experiment continues.  Their daily average in new cases has bottomed out the week before 4/5 and have begun to climb again.  By percentage increases, Texas is #17, by total numbers, #4.  But Texas is the second most populated state in the Union.

Week before    TX    PA
2/22/2021    5012    2681
3/1/2021     7113    2614
3/8/2021     5413    2487
3/15/2021    4437    2492
3/22/2021    3647    2976
3/29/2021    3443    4019
4/5/2021     2816    4063
4/12/2021    3467    4336

Note that PA is the 5th most populated state in the USA, but has 40% the  population of Texas.

By percentages, the most increases are:
Nebraska        318%
Guam            204%
North Carolina  147%
US Military     141%
Nevada          139%
Arizona         132%
Louisiana       130%
South Dakota    128%
Rhode Island    128%
Wisconsin       127%

 
By Raw numbers (increases in number of active cases, PER DAY):
Michigan      1215
Guam           823
Florida        591
Texas          568
Illinois       446
Pennsylvania   420
North Carolina 404
Ohio           383
California     369
Nebraska       238

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Another rant on Anti-vaxers.

I came across an interesting article was published on Web MD recently.

https://www.webmd.com/children/vaccines/news/20210325/disinformation-dozen-driving-anti-vaccine-content

65% of all anti-vaccine content on social media between Feb 1 and Mar 16 were posted by just 12 people.  They have been labeled the Disinformation Dozen.  Think about that.  Just 12 influencers, most of which are unknown to you, have managed to raise the "natural" anti-vax rate from 7% (see my last edition), to 30% in the USA.

And because the internet has no borders, they have contaminated the information stream in Canada as well.  Canadians are more internet connected than the USA and has been assaulted by right wing propaganda from south of the border.

Who are these The Disinformation Dozen?  A cursory google has come up with the following:
Ty and Charlene Bollinger
    An alternative medicine activist and author of several books

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
    Motivation unknown, but has been an ardent anti-vaxer for 16 years.  Scanning his writings, I think he is just a loonie...

Joseph Mercola, DO
    Sells natural health products.  

Sherri Tenpenny DO
    Several books on alternative medicine and anti vaccines

Rizza Islam  

        In addition to being anti-vax, he is antisemitic, anti-LGBTQ. He seems to support himself by gaining followers of his conspiracy theory's.

Rashid Buttar DO
    An actual doctor, but not certified by any reputable boards.  I am not seeing any financial incentive for his claims.

Erin Elizabeth
    Runs Health Nut News (her description, not mine), spouse of Joseph Mercola, above.

Sayer Ji
    Degree in Philosophy, Runs Green Med Info.  

Kelly Brogan MD
    Several books on alternative medicine

Christiane Northrup  MD
    Promotes anti vax and "instinctive medicine"  Doesn't subscribe to germ theory.

Ben Tapper
    I am not finding anything about him save that he is on this list

Kevin Jenkins
    Executive Director of the Urban Global Health Alliance.  Makes claims that vaccines are weapons being used in the ongoing race war. 

Just over half of them have businesses that profit from anti-vax hysteria.  About half are actual doctors.  Some seem to benefit from having followers.  At least one is just an influential lunatic

But I am heavily biased here. The anti-vax movement has killed 1,000's of children if not more.  Currently in American Samoa over measles. 

Lies often repeated are believed, and these people are really good at repeating their lies.

On an up note.  Penn and Teller did an episode called "Vaccinations" where they dig into the people behind the anti-vax movement and point out the deficiencies in their arguments.   It was an entertaining and informative 30 minutes.  But I can't find the whole episode, it is owned by Showtime, and maybe still available in their streaming services.  But here is a 90 sec bit from the show if you are interested.

One solid piece of advice they give you.  If you are listening to professional magicians for your medical advice, you are an idiot.  Talk to your doctor.

 

 

Life is too short 2

 Life is too short for some annoyances.

This annoyance is called the Paste Options Icon. It is found in all the Microsoft Office programs when you paste some thing into a document or spread sheet. It's a helpful little thing that prevents you from copying into the destination cell by hovering over top the area you are trying to copy to.

And it doesn't go away. If you scroll, it follows the area.

It only exits when you find some corner of the cell uncovered and manage to CTRL-V there.

To remove this "Son of Clippy" Pick Options--> Advanced.

Scroll down to the section marked Cut, copy and paste.

Uncheck the options "Show Paste Options..." "Show Insert Options..."

 

In Office 365:

1. Click the File tab, then click Options.

2. In the Advanced category, under Cut, copy, and paste, clear or select the Show Paste Options button when content is pasted check box to hide or display the Show Paste Options button.

 

 

While you are in there, you can change the number of recent documents open to something more manageable, like 10.

 

Go to Options->>Advanced--> and scroll to "Display" 

 

Under Quickly Access this number of recent workbooks, change the default of 4.

 

If you ask me why I bother to blog about these petty annoyances, it is so I know where to find the answer when I have to break in a new PC. I don't remember what they are called, but I know where to find the answer.

 

In my profession, this comes up about every contract. Sometimes twice because I have to break in the loaner PC, that remotes into the actual work PC.

Coronavirus, the Good Friday Edition

 

Coronavirus, the Good Friday Edition

By the Numbers

 As of Mar 30, 51 million Americans have been fully vaccinated. As production increases, and states get their act together, that figure is accelerating.

Everywhere there were complaints on how to get it. In some cases, it was like trying to get a ticket to a rock concert or ComicCon, with appointment slots being gone within minutes of posting.

If you are veteran, you can now bypass the your state system and use the VA system even if you are not normally signed up for VA benefits. Which is where I got mine. On Mar 24, Biden signed the Save Lives act, and any veteran, whether they are in the VA system or not, can get the vaccine. And their spouses. To date, over 1.6 million veterans have been vaccinated.

Visit https://blogs.va.gov/VAntage/84404/veterans-designated-caregivers-can-get-covid-19-vaccine-va/ for further details.
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Probably the biggest news is that the 2 dose vaccines, Moderna and Pfizer, have been shown to provide are 80% efficacy 2 weeks after the 1st shot. This is contrary to all early reports. Earlier, we simply did not know. Now with data from millions the effectiveness looks even better than before.

As a comparison point, when vaccine development was discussed last year, it was hoped that they would achieve 65% effectiveness, which Epidemiologists regarded that as good enough to deal with the epidemic. The 90+% effectiveness we have seen has been regarded as a blessing.

For more details, here is an article from the Business Insider:

https://www.businessinsider.com/covid-vaccine-one-shot-effectiveness-pfizer-moderna-astrazeneca-vaccines-dose-2021-3

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Pennsylvania* has changed its strategy. To deal with road blocks, PA was going to establish regional vaccination centers. This plan met resistance from all the areas where the centers were NOT. Now PA will issue the vaccine to the counties and the counties will arrange the distributing.

Other than the complaints on inequitable distribution that PA was already experiencing, like the rural areas were getting disproportionately more vaccine then the suburbs I think the reason for the change in plan was that reality had made the mass centers moot in the suburbs. Local pharmacies and even grocery stores are now able to do the injections.

PA will finally be vaccinating group 1B people on April 5. Firefighters, critical personnel under the age of 65.

The plan is for everyone else (group 2) to sign on starting April 19. 

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The overall numbers have dropped by a small amount in two weeks. From an estimated 1.43 to 1.39 million active cases. Down from a peak of 5.3 million on Jan 19. The death toll per day has dropped to around 1,000 a day, down from 4,000 peak.

The reason for the drop during what should be peak virus season, if you compare to the flu, is unclear.

One thought is the most vulnerable have caught it already and thus have limited immunity.

Another thought is that testing is down 35% from peak, fewer tests, and fewer identified new cases. The counter to this argument though is the positive rate is down about 66% nationally. In PA it is about half, from 16 to 8%. Only 10 states have a higher rating including South Dakota at 29% and Idaho at 23%. While that may seem extraordinarily high, those two states also have a testing per capita rate of less than 1/4 of PA. 75 per 100,000 vice 300. So they are doing fewer screening tests. So when they do test, it is more of a verification.

But I am leaning towards better behavior. By that I mean the Thanksgiving and Christmas surges have worked their way through the system, and we are now approaching “normal” cautious behavior over a long period of time.

Add 15% fully vaccinated Americans, 13% partially vaccinated and the estimated 15-30% that have been infected in the last 6 months and we are reaching “herd immunity” levels (70-80%) among those groups most likely to contract the disease.

So if you managed to avoid it so far, there is a good chance you are not in one of those groups and will need to continue to take precautions.

To quote an article in the Atlantic, …”At our current vaccination pace, we’re adding about 10 million people to this “protected” population every week. We’re accelerating toward a moment, sometime this spring, when half of American adults should have some kind of Coronavirus protection. And we should be particularly optimistic about severe illness among older Americans, since the vaccines are disproportionately going to people over 50, who have accounted for 70 percent of all hospitalizations.”…

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The Texas removal of all restrictions experiment continues.  So far, it is a success with their Covid new cases about half the pre-restriction days of 3/2/2021. 

Texas tests 200 per 100,000, and has a positive rate of 6.1%, 20th in the nation.

Wk Ending In: Average Daily New Cases for the week
1/11/2021 22927
1/18/2021 20734
1/25/2021 18815
2/1/2021 18267
2/8/2021 12487
2/15/2021 9410
2/22/2021 5012
3/1/2021 7113 <<week of restriction removal
3/8/2021 5413
3/15/2021 4437
3/22/2021 3647
3/29/2021 3443

I decided to add Pennsylvania’s numbers for comparison. When looking at these, keep in mind, the population of Pennsylvania is about 40% that of Texas. So by percentages, Texas is doing significantly better.

Wk Ending In: Average Daily New Cases for the week
1/11/2021 8732
1/18/2021 6366
1/25/2021 5305
2/1/2021 5969
2/8/2021 3895
2/15/2021 3226
2/22/2021 2681
3/1/2021 2614
3/8/2021 2487
3/15/2021 2492
3/22/2021 2976
3/29/2021 4019

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The following is a bit of a rant. Feel free to just X out now.

The conversation is shifting to anti-vaxers. Those that claim they will never get the vaccine. I have mentioned previously that some are voicing doubts of safety and lack of long term testing. Everyone has different risk levels.

About 30% of Americans surveyed in 2021 stated that, if offered the COVID-19 vaccine, they would not take it. Forty-nine percent of that cohort consisted of Republican men; 6 percent were Democrat-identifying men. Moreover, 14 percent of Democrat women said they wouldn't receive the vaccine if offered, compared to 34 percent of Republican women. Source: Salon Magazine, poll by NPR, but also corroborated by other polls.

A 2015 poll determined that 7% of the population in general has anti-vax sentiments. Breaking 56/44 male/female. So why extreme difference? Obviously there is a political bent here.

But this poll was taken before it was revealed that Donald and Melania Trump received a vaccine in January, but didn’t reveal it till mid March. He recommends that everyone get the vaccine. Time will tell.

But this is not just an American problem. England’s medical journal, Lancet is observing a cult like following among Tories (their conservative party) regarding anti-mask, anti-vax, anti lockdown behaviors.

I am amazed to hear the same issues in Great Britain being brought up. Claims of a fake Pandemic, statistics are being manipulated by the National Health Service, or that the vaccine will turn you into a monkey (yes, someone made, and printed that claim). Like Trump, their prime minister, Boris Johnson had a cavalier attitude towards Covid, up to the time he caught it, and then spent a week in the ICU in what he described as “it could have gone either way”

And yet the skepticism persists there as here.

The amount of misinformation is amazing. Deliberate lies told in channels most of us are not hooked into. And when they bleed over to our comms, can be dismissed as the ravings of a random lunatic. But on their normal channels, this is incessant and multi layered. Large percentages of the population are being controlled for political reasons, starting with the lie of not trusting the other media.

This is the same tactics used by con men and cult leaders. Victims are told, "Don’t trust them… Trust us." They are trying to separate their victims from their supports.

If you go into a house where Fox news is on all day long, you understand. They never get any other version of events.

It has an agenda. To me, if 20 news sources say it is, and 1 says it’s not; I’m going to go with the 20.

The smartest man I know is one of them. I have known him for over 40 years. Brilliant to the extreme, but with politics, has a blind spot a mile wide.

I don’t have an answer here. As far as anti-vaxing, it is hoped that as more and more of the population is protected, the remainder will concede. And until the there are vaccines going wanting for arms, it is not a problem.

And for the record, my primary news source is Drudgereport, then NPR.

😊 *I live in Pennsylvania. If you don’t like me referring to it, write your own blog 😊