Coronavirus, the Good Friday Edition

 

Coronavirus, the Good Friday Edition

By the Numbers

 As of Mar 30, 51 million Americans have been fully vaccinated. As production increases, and states get their act together, that figure is accelerating.

Everywhere there were complaints on how to get it. In some cases, it was like trying to get a ticket to a rock concert or ComicCon, with appointment slots being gone within minutes of posting.

If you are veteran, you can now bypass the your state system and use the VA system even if you are not normally signed up for VA benefits. Which is where I got mine. On Mar 24, Biden signed the Save Lives act, and any veteran, whether they are in the VA system or not, can get the vaccine. And their spouses. To date, over 1.6 million veterans have been vaccinated.

Visit https://blogs.va.gov/VAntage/84404/veterans-designated-caregivers-can-get-covid-19-vaccine-va/ for further details.
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Probably the biggest news is that the 2 dose vaccines, Moderna and Pfizer, have been shown to provide are 80% efficacy 2 weeks after the 1st shot. This is contrary to all early reports. Earlier, we simply did not know. Now with data from millions the effectiveness looks even better than before.

As a comparison point, when vaccine development was discussed last year, it was hoped that they would achieve 65% effectiveness, which Epidemiologists regarded that as good enough to deal with the epidemic. The 90+% effectiveness we have seen has been regarded as a blessing.

For more details, here is an article from the Business Insider:

https://www.businessinsider.com/covid-vaccine-one-shot-effectiveness-pfizer-moderna-astrazeneca-vaccines-dose-2021-3

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Pennsylvania* has changed its strategy. To deal with road blocks, PA was going to establish regional vaccination centers. This plan met resistance from all the areas where the centers were NOT. Now PA will issue the vaccine to the counties and the counties will arrange the distributing.

Other than the complaints on inequitable distribution that PA was already experiencing, like the rural areas were getting disproportionately more vaccine then the suburbs I think the reason for the change in plan was that reality had made the mass centers moot in the suburbs. Local pharmacies and even grocery stores are now able to do the injections.

PA will finally be vaccinating group 1B people on April 5. Firefighters, critical personnel under the age of 65.

The plan is for everyone else (group 2) to sign on starting April 19. 

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The overall numbers have dropped by a small amount in two weeks. From an estimated 1.43 to 1.39 million active cases. Down from a peak of 5.3 million on Jan 19. The death toll per day has dropped to around 1,000 a day, down from 4,000 peak.

The reason for the drop during what should be peak virus season, if you compare to the flu, is unclear.

One thought is the most vulnerable have caught it already and thus have limited immunity.

Another thought is that testing is down 35% from peak, fewer tests, and fewer identified new cases. The counter to this argument though is the positive rate is down about 66% nationally. In PA it is about half, from 16 to 8%. Only 10 states have a higher rating including South Dakota at 29% and Idaho at 23%. While that may seem extraordinarily high, those two states also have a testing per capita rate of less than 1/4 of PA. 75 per 100,000 vice 300. So they are doing fewer screening tests. So when they do test, it is more of a verification.

But I am leaning towards better behavior. By that I mean the Thanksgiving and Christmas surges have worked their way through the system, and we are now approaching “normal” cautious behavior over a long period of time.

Add 15% fully vaccinated Americans, 13% partially vaccinated and the estimated 15-30% that have been infected in the last 6 months and we are reaching “herd immunity” levels (70-80%) among those groups most likely to contract the disease.

So if you managed to avoid it so far, there is a good chance you are not in one of those groups and will need to continue to take precautions.

To quote an article in the Atlantic, …”At our current vaccination pace, we’re adding about 10 million people to this “protected” population every week. We’re accelerating toward a moment, sometime this spring, when half of American adults should have some kind of Coronavirus protection. And we should be particularly optimistic about severe illness among older Americans, since the vaccines are disproportionately going to people over 50, who have accounted for 70 percent of all hospitalizations.”…

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The Texas removal of all restrictions experiment continues.  So far, it is a success with their Covid new cases about half the pre-restriction days of 3/2/2021. 

Texas tests 200 per 100,000, and has a positive rate of 6.1%, 20th in the nation.

Wk Ending In: Average Daily New Cases for the week
1/11/2021 22927
1/18/2021 20734
1/25/2021 18815
2/1/2021 18267
2/8/2021 12487
2/15/2021 9410
2/22/2021 5012
3/1/2021 7113 <<week of restriction removal
3/8/2021 5413
3/15/2021 4437
3/22/2021 3647
3/29/2021 3443

I decided to add Pennsylvania’s numbers for comparison. When looking at these, keep in mind, the population of Pennsylvania is about 40% that of Texas. So by percentages, Texas is doing significantly better.

Wk Ending In: Average Daily New Cases for the week
1/11/2021 8732
1/18/2021 6366
1/25/2021 5305
2/1/2021 5969
2/8/2021 3895
2/15/2021 3226
2/22/2021 2681
3/1/2021 2614
3/8/2021 2487
3/15/2021 2492
3/22/2021 2976
3/29/2021 4019

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The following is a bit of a rant. Feel free to just X out now.

The conversation is shifting to anti-vaxers. Those that claim they will never get the vaccine. I have mentioned previously that some are voicing doubts of safety and lack of long term testing. Everyone has different risk levels.

About 30% of Americans surveyed in 2021 stated that, if offered the COVID-19 vaccine, they would not take it. Forty-nine percent of that cohort consisted of Republican men; 6 percent were Democrat-identifying men. Moreover, 14 percent of Democrat women said they wouldn't receive the vaccine if offered, compared to 34 percent of Republican women. Source: Salon Magazine, poll by NPR, but also corroborated by other polls.

A 2015 poll determined that 7% of the population in general has anti-vax sentiments. Breaking 56/44 male/female. So why extreme difference? Obviously there is a political bent here.

But this poll was taken before it was revealed that Donald and Melania Trump received a vaccine in January, but didn’t reveal it till mid March. He recommends that everyone get the vaccine. Time will tell.

But this is not just an American problem. England’s medical journal, Lancet is observing a cult like following among Tories (their conservative party) regarding anti-mask, anti-vax, anti lockdown behaviors.

I am amazed to hear the same issues in Great Britain being brought up. Claims of a fake Pandemic, statistics are being manipulated by the National Health Service, or that the vaccine will turn you into a monkey (yes, someone made, and printed that claim). Like Trump, their prime minister, Boris Johnson had a cavalier attitude towards Covid, up to the time he caught it, and then spent a week in the ICU in what he described as “it could have gone either way”

And yet the skepticism persists there as here.

The amount of misinformation is amazing. Deliberate lies told in channels most of us are not hooked into. And when they bleed over to our comms, can be dismissed as the ravings of a random lunatic. But on their normal channels, this is incessant and multi layered. Large percentages of the population are being controlled for political reasons, starting with the lie of not trusting the other media.

This is the same tactics used by con men and cult leaders. Victims are told, "Don’t trust them… Trust us." They are trying to separate their victims from their supports.

If you go into a house where Fox news is on all day long, you understand. They never get any other version of events.

It has an agenda. To me, if 20 news sources say it is, and 1 says it’s not; I’m going to go with the 20.

The smartest man I know is one of them. I have known him for over 40 years. Brilliant to the extreme, but with politics, has a blind spot a mile wide.

I don’t have an answer here. As far as anti-vaxing, it is hoped that as more and more of the population is protected, the remainder will concede. And until the there are vaccines going wanting for arms, it is not a problem.

And for the record, my primary news source is Drudgereport, then NPR.

😊 *I live in Pennsylvania. If you don’t like me referring to it, write your own blog 😊