Coronavirus, the Ides of April Edition
By the Numbers
For some of these reports, nothing much new happens for weeks, and others I start writing right after publishing. For this the point was with the numbers. There has been chatter of a new surge of cases, especially in Europe, but my numbers were not showing much increase nationwide. Some states were climbing a little, others were falling, and nationwide the number of new cases per day had stabilized.
And now the curve has shown to have bottomed out from the major drop in February to early March and is starting to climb again.
Percentage wise, over half the states have seen an increase in the total number of new daily active cases in excess of 10%, 10 states over 30%, while only 10 have see a drop of 10%.
Vermont and Delaware over 40%. But in total that is still only 1,110 actual cases for a whole week. So it’s major for them, but nationally, just a blib.
Michigan is close behind at 39% but because of its greater population, is adding 10,300 new cases
Followed by New Jersey, New York, Illinois, Florida and Pennsylvania each between 5-6,000 new cases.
And like the sudden drop earlier this year, no one can justify why the numbers are going up. Latest theory is the dominant strain in the US is “Kent”, more infectious, and no less deadly. The current vaccine regimen is capable of dealing with it.
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Despite some heavily promoted headlines, the vaccines do have efficacy against the “South African” strain. Not as well as against other variants, but still within desired parameters. Patients catching that strain that have been vaccinated suffer far less than normal as well. Despite ominous terms like vaccine evasion, you are still better with the vaccine then without. Preliminary reports regarding South African and the J&J shows reduces the severity of the disease, while Pfizer and Moderna are still at least 60% effective. For more information, refer to this New York Times article.
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J&J’s “one shot” vaccine has been paused pending research on blood clots being observed. The numbers I have are 7 million people have received the vaccine, and 6 recipients have reported with the problem. 1 fatally so, 1 in critical condition. As near as I can determine, in Europe the numbers are 2 million recipients, and 4 cases, 1 of which was fatal. But before we declare this is literally 1 in a million. I noticed that all the articles were pointing to just a report from Nebraska. Which means, if there is a problem here, it's in all the states, but not getting attention from the press. If the vaccine is causing this problem, it may be 1 in 100,000 or more.
Which is why J&J's is paused. To give the CDC a chance to gather more data.
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A study posted in the Lancet is showing that a third of Covid-19 survivors were diagnosed with a brain or psychiatric disorder within six months, suggesting the pandemic could lead to a wave of mental and neurological problems, This did not seem to be related to how severe the infection was.
Also, among the severe Covid cases, 7% suffered a stroke within 6 months.
This
is a highly detailed study, encompassing 240,000 patients and comparing
against “normal” groups against 55 factors, like Sex, Race, Age,
economic situation, Obesity, Blood pressure. A large enough control group to separate normal anxiety pressures from enforced isolation from disease caused.
Covid seems to attack the vascular system, and as blood goes everywhere. Just about any system can be damaged, including the brain.
For more details here is the Lancet publication. https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanpsy/article/PIIS2215-0366(21)00084-5/fulltext#sec1
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The Texas experiment continues. Their daily average in new cases has bottomed out the week before 4/5 and have begun to climb again. By percentage increases, Texas is #17, by total numbers, #4. But Texas is the second most populated state in the Union.
Week before TX PA
2/22/2021 5012 2681
3/1/2021 7113 2614
3/8/2021 5413 2487
3/15/2021 4437 2492
3/22/2021 3647 2976
3/29/2021 3443 4019
4/5/2021 2816 4063
4/12/2021 3467 4336
Note that PA is the 5th most populated state in the USA, but has 40% the population of Texas.
By percentages, the most increases are:
Nebraska 318%
Guam 204%
North Carolina 147%
US Military 141%
Nevada 139%
Arizona 132%
Louisiana 130%
South Dakota 128%
Rhode Island 128%
Wisconsin 127%
By Raw numbers (increases in number of active cases, PER DAY):
Michigan 1215
Guam 823
Florida 591
Texas 568
Illinois 446
Pennsylvania 420
North Carolina 404
Ohio 383
California 369
Nebraska 238
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Another rant on Anti-vaxers.
I came across an interesting article was published on Web MD recently.
65% of all anti-vaccine content on social media between Feb 1 and Mar 16 were posted by just 12 people. They have been labeled the Disinformation Dozen. Think about that. Just 12 influencers, most of which are unknown to you, have managed to raise the "natural" anti-vax rate from 7% (see my last edition), to 30% in the USA.
And because the internet has no borders, they have contaminated the information stream in Canada as well. Canadians are more internet connected than the USA and has been assaulted by right wing propaganda from south of the border.
Who are these The Disinformation Dozen? A cursory google has come up with the following:
Ty and Charlene Bollinger
An alternative medicine activist and author of several books
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Motivation unknown, but has been an ardent anti-vaxer for 16 years. Scanning his writings, I think he is just a loonie...
Joseph Mercola, DO
Sells natural health products.
Sherri Tenpenny DO
Several books on alternative medicine and anti vaccines
Rizza Islam
In addition to being anti-vax, he is antisemitic, anti-LGBTQ. He seems to support himself by gaining followers of his conspiracy theory's.
Rashid Buttar DO
An actual doctor, but not certified by any reputable boards. I am not seeing any financial incentive for his claims.
Erin Elizabeth
Runs Health Nut News (her description, not mine), spouse of Joseph Mercola, above.
Sayer Ji
Degree in Philosophy, Runs Green Med Info.
Kelly Brogan MD
Several books on alternative medicine
Christiane Northrup MD
Promotes anti vax and "instinctive medicine" Doesn't subscribe to germ theory.
Ben Tapper
I am not finding anything about him save that he is on this list
Kevin Jenkins
Executive Director of the Urban Global Health Alliance. Makes claims that vaccines are weapons being used in the ongoing race war.
Just over half of them have businesses that profit from anti-vax hysteria. About half are actual doctors. Some seem to benefit from having followers. At least one is just an influential lunatic
But I am heavily biased here. The anti-vax movement has killed 1,000's of children if not more. Currently in American Samoa over measles.
Lies often repeated are believed, and these people are really good at repeating their lies.
On an up note. Penn and Teller did an episode called "Vaccinations" where they dig into the people behind the anti-vax movement and point out the deficiencies in their arguments. It was an entertaining and informative 30 minutes. But I can't find the whole episode, it is owned by Showtime, and maybe still available in their streaming services. But here is a 90 sec bit from the show if you are interested.
One solid piece of advice they give you. If you are listening to professional magicians for your medical advice, you are an idiot. Talk to your doctor.
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