Wednesday, June 30, 2021

UFO's Are NOT Flying Saucers Part 1

UFO's Are Not Flying Saucers
Part 1
By the Numbers

This is in response to the newly released report by the Pentagon on the subject of UFO's. The long and the short is this: The Pentagon has observed 144 objects since 2004 that it cannot explain what they are.  They are not saying they are alien produced flying saucers.  Recently one of the more prominent videos was this:


Referred to as the "The Go Fast" video.  Released about 5 years ago.

The pilot was claiming amazing changes of speed of an object that was next to the water.  The Navy has analyzed the footage and has responded with nothing.
 
The Navy will not comment officially because this was a new sensor system, the Raytheon Multispectral targeting system, and formally a secret. And because it's just general policy not to reveal our capabilities.  

But, one analyst, Mike West, did crunch the numbers on the screen above and calculated the the object was not at sea level, but at 12,000 feet, this changed the speed it was traveling from 300-400 knots to between 20 and 40 knots. In addition, the camera was set to "black hot" mode so the whiteness of the target is it's infra red color. White meaning it is the same temperature as the surrounding air.
 
So contrary to the claims, this object is moving along with the current wind speed, at the ambient air temperature. In short, it is a weather balloon.
 
The pilots involved are misunderstanding what the display is telling them. This happens all the time.
 
Each account has to be assessed individually. And the Navy is not going to release any findings on any system for security reasons. So we are down to individual analysis of this video. Mike West used to convert 3D physics programs for video games into 2D images.  So analyzing a 2D image to what is happening in 3D is second nature to him.  So while he is not official, these are some pretty good credentials.
 
Then there is this:
ufo uap pentagon footage
Referred to as "The Flying Pyramid" video
 
In the video there is a flashing light on the UFO.  Why would someone make something in the shape of a pyramid fly?  As it turns out, this camera has a triangle shaped aperture, and out of focus objects will have a triangle shape.  The flashing light is repeating at a rate consistent with commercial aircraft. 
 
Back in the 80's I was in the US Navy serving as a Terrier Mod 8 Surface to Air missile radar engineer/operator.  As such I spent a lot of time tracking flying objects.  Our motto was, "In God We Trust, All Others We Track".*  We didn't see much that couldn't be explained, but one time, one of my juniors called me over, because he was tracking a target, and in the fire control world, everything is a "target", that was changing it's velocity by 200 yards a second, in an instant. That's a difference of 400 MPH.  Way beyond the capabilities of any thing that flies.  Or any other object in existence.

I looked at it and told him he had two planes, flying nearly wingtip to wingtip. And the radar was bouncing from one to the other.  Each bounce would be recalculated as a range rate change.  A common deception by warplanes to avoid being tracked.  Later, they will split apart, the plane still being tracked, because they know they are being tracked, will fly off, the other will continue the run unobserved.  Or so they hope.

"How do you know", he asked?
 
"You're looking at the peaks, I'm looking at the noise".  In the noise you could see a larger than normal divot, that occasionally split in two.  But when the display circuit was trying to make sense of it, both those divots merged into a single spike.

And a minute later, they split off. Our radar maintained lock on one, while number 6 tracked the other.  So much for hope.

So my Junior would have reported an anomaly like the pilots in the above video. It happens.
 
Radars for the Detection and Tracking of Ballistic Missiles, Satellites,  and Planets
Not the same as the 55 Radar, but it provides a reference.  The crap above the Range arrow is "noise".  While the bump would be the target.  Our system had a much cleaner image than this.  But that cleaner image comes at a cost of processing power.  And some conditions were just not engineered in, and anomalies can occur.

So lets look at the numbers.  From the 40's through 90's it seemed like UFO's were everywhere.  Along with the  blurry photos.  It really did seem like there was a universal presence observing us.  But there was a total lack of good photographs or any hard evidence.  Why is easy to explain.  
 
Everything filmed as a UFO was in that visual event horizon referred to as the low information zone.  If it was closer, you would know what it is.  Further away, and it is not noticed.  At the early ages of portable cameras, this was a very small bubble.  

You have to have the equipment available, and ready (like with film) for such a picture.  In the 60's, cameras got more convenient, with Polaroids, and 110 Instamatics.  This increased the number of cameras available, but the tech conveniences came at a cost of lower picture quality.  So the number of bubbles increased, but did not improve in quality.

Through the 70's cameras got more prevalent, and the film quality dramatically improved from ISO 100 in the early 70's to ASA 1000 by 1980.  So the number of bubbles and the radius of the event horizon of the low information zone increased.  But what UFO's that were filmed, still remained in that zone.

This continued decade after decade.  Millions of potential photographers, zero solid photos.

Around 2005 the numbers logarithmically improved.  Instead of 100 million possible photographers there were now a billion with cameras in their phones, being carried all the time, with no film requirements they would always be available and with a 10X zoom the size of the low information bubble increased in size.   So our ability to film a speeding UFO increased by more than 10,000 fold over the 60's and 70's. 
 
And yet, the aliens seem to be able to hug that ever increasing low information zone.
 
In 2021, there are an estimated 3.5 billion cell phones available, most with with 40x zoom and UHD resolution.  Call it between 12 and 48 times better than 2005.
 
So where are the photos?
 
So either the aliens left, developed new stealth technology, or were never here.
 
They could have left, but it begs the question why they were here to begin with?
 
They could of developed new stealth technology, but that fact they are here implies they surpass our tech in so many ways, and since visual stealth, seems already in our reach, wouldn't that have  been installed on their craft long ago? If they wanted to hide, then why have they shown themselves previously?

This leaves they were never here.  When you exclude the impossible, whatever is left, is the answer.
 
The current Pentagon report only covers the last 17 years so as to have high quality data to work with.  Of that, the Pentagon has observed 144 objects that it cannot explain.  Out of how many it can explain?    Billions very likely.  A single Aegis phased array radar could track a 1,000 objects simultaneously.  24x7, So out of those 144, how many are just a lack of accurate data.  How many are electronic translation of an unusual situation?  The Pentagon acknowledged this with the statement in their release, "The sensors mounted on U.S. military platforms are typically designed to fulfill specific missions. As a result, those sensors are not generally suited for identifying UAP."  
 
This is another way to saying, "If you want us to start shooting them down, we can oblige you.  Then you will know exactly what they were."
 
But then Egypt won't disassemble the Great Pyramid to find all the secret rooms either.
 
I was a late comer to the UFO's are aliens skepticism.  Up until the early 2000s, I was a big believer in all the fantastic claims.  Devils Triangle**, Ancient Visitors***, Bigfoot****, Nessie*****, UFO's!  I gobbled them up and morphed them into one belief.  My belief was heavily reinforced when I was 14 when this flew overhead:
16 Ool ideas | marilyn monroe death, marylin monroe, marilyn monroe
Yes, we built one.

 
Now imagine this viewed from below, where the ailerons are not visible, and for reasons  unknown, no obvious USAF and insignia on the bottom.  I remember noting the mismatched coloration of the metal plates.  If you saw this from a quarter mile away, what would you think?

It was over 40 years before I tracked down this image.
 
UPDATE:  I have reason to believe this image is an Artist Conception, not a photograph.  But sans the stabilizers, which was not viewable from below, and the obvious USAF markings, this is what I saw.  An article is available here...

Anecdotal story:   Back in the 70's, one of Iran's F-14 fighter jets spotted a UFO and gave chase.  The pilot tried to "lock on" with his weapons but they failed.  Claiming that aliens must have jammed his equipment.
 
Or perhaps Venus, which is very bright in the thin high altitude air, is just a few million miles out of range of the air to air missiles?  We laughed at the stupid Iranians.  
 
And now they can laugh at us.

We are good at seeing things we have been told to see.  Strange things in the skies have been reported before the invention of the airplane, but skyrocketed since.  

The Amsterdam zoo once lost their panda.  It had escaped.  They put out request for help in the media, and received over 10,000 replies of people that saw the panda.  A few days later it was found, dead, killed by a train right next to the zoo.

None of those 10,000 people saw the panda. 
 
I did not expect this to be a two part series, but some interesting information came to light on the fraud behind promoting UFOs.  UFO's are Not Flying Saucers, Part 2
 
* The other motto is "If it flies, it dies." 
 
** Statistically, considering miles traveled, the Bermuda triangle has a lower disappearance rate than other heavily trafficked areas in the world.
 
*** Strange pictures on walls.  Our ancestors had imaginations.  Just like we do.  They invented all manner of aliens, they just called them gods and spirits. 

 **** Man in a gorilla suit.

***** Stick in the water being pulled by a string.
 
 
 
 

Why is Fox News so Successful

 Why is Fox News so Successful?

Regardless of your politics, you have to regard Fox News as a major success story.  Over 20 years ago they took on the big three networks in the niche market that is cable news and has thrived.

Their fan base is incredibly loyal.  Even when scandals rock their personalities and leadership, their market share seems never to waver.

If you are in a house with a Fox News watcher, you know it.  It's on the TV.  Constantly.  Why is that?

My experience with followers of Fox* spans decades, since the Monica Lewinsky scandal.  I have seen it pervert some of the greatest minds of my generation. 

I have recently started going back at the gym, and have a little insight on the matter.  It is not about the content, but the presentation.  Fox brooks no inattention.  The borders are bright primary colors, and about every minute or two they flash, FOX NEWS ALERT!

pbs.twimg.com/ext_tw_video_thumb/12654746487009...
Really, an Alert! for Biden Wearing A Mask?

Today, when Trump's CFO was being arraigned, the Fox Alert was about the Princess Diana statue being unveiled in the UK.  While other stations were covering the Miami condo collapse tragedy, Fox was doing a segment on Britney Spear's court case.  But each of these minutia were preceded with the flashing ALERT.  As if they were of any real importance.

 

Evolution of the Fox News Alert - YouTube
And this annoying100 point font in 3D lettering for other attention getting.


Meanwhile, the CNN display on the adjacent display is fairly ignorable.

Then there are the presenters.   While all presenters must be presentable, with the exception of the headliners like Hannity, Fox presenters are very well coifed.  Side by side against CNN and MSN, the difference is striking.

Their marketing style is mimicked by their advertising.  Flashing text that promises total ruin if you do not invest in their products.  Like their news, the advertisements focus on fear of inflation, so buy gold, or the economy will collapse so buy emergency food, and lets not let big pharma take away your useless supplements.   Sales pitches that makes your skin crawl with the dis-ingenuousness of them. 

I know Patriot Emergency supply has been in business for decades.  The last church I was a member of was trying to sell this stuff, in case you don't get translated to heaven when the rapture occurs**.  I've been hearing the gold pitch as a hedge against inflation for decades.  In 2011, gold was $1,900,  Yesterday it was $1,770.  So a net loss of about 6% + inflation.  

Supplements.  Because they are supplements, they are not required to be tested for the inferred, but not claimed, efficacy.  If they claim something, then it has to be proven, and big supplements will never  want that.

This is in keeping with Fox's tactics to get their fans good and scared, or angry, depending.  Reporting on items that occur under a Democratic administration are complete utter disasters, but not mentioned when the same thing was under a Republican administration.

And lets not forget the communists.  If there is one thing they really don't like is communism.  Including pain and suffering caused by corporate greed.  Which is the ultimate in capitalist expression.  And lately, it's Nazis.  Because apparently communists didn't scare people enough. 

Did Fox succeed because if found an under-served market, or did it create one?  Probably a bit of both.

Fox employs a number of cult strategies.  The first thing a cult does is cuts it's victims off from any voice of reason.  Your friends and family are all holding you back.  We are your family now.  They even call their morning show, Fox and Friends.  

Like a cult, Fox personalities insist they are the only source of truth.  They promote that the other major news agencies are lying to you and supporting big government.  So don't listen to them.  Once again, separating the victim from any other source of information.  It is true that most major news services is currently in the hands of 6 corporations.  But they also are in competition with each other. So it is unlikely there is a grand conspiracy of 5 of them verses Rupert Murdoch, who owns Fox and is not an American.  

Fox is the only service that does this.  The real news services are busy providing the information, not insisting on exclusivity of the news.

And if there really was this grand conspiracy, someone other than Fox would know about it.  These are not monolithic organizations, they employ millions.  Keeping a secret that big with that many people for this long is impossible.   

Here is an article on how cults entrap people.  
https://blog.usejournal.com/how-cults-entrap-people-d2f012c10149

The tactics are familiar.  They include:
    Hiding True Intent:  Minority control of power by the rich over the poor.
    Installing Fear:  Every morning they have something new to make you afraid.
    Love Bombing and the Surrogate Family: Fox Friends. 
    Elitism:  Only "we" have the true truth.
    Shunning: Liz Cheney
    Towing the Party Line:   Remember RINO's? 
    Cult Activities Dominate Member's time: For cult members, Fox is on from morning to night.
    Leaving Members are Vilified:  I'm short for an example here. 

So why are they so successful?  It's big shiny packaging, and 98% factual information, and 2% subtle lies.  While you are distracted by the shinies, the lies just slip by.


*We are going to stop glorifying the Fox moniker with the appended "News" here.  "Entertainment" would be more appropriate.  

** Think about it.  If you don't make the first pass on the rapture, your first thought isn't going to be, well thank god I have this Patriot food in the basement with a 25 year shelf life!

2020 Election Lies, The Final Word

The 2020 Election Lies You May Have Heard
The Final Word

On an interview with Sean Hannity, Donald Trump finally admitted he lost the election.  It wasn't stolen, it was lost.  He describes it was shocking, somehow justifying his lies with "And shockingly, we were supposed to win easily at 64 million votes. And we got 75 million votes. And we didn't win..."

So all the trauma he subjected this country to, up to and including a insurrection against the Congress of the United States was because he was "Shocked".

Shocked gets you 3 days of bad behavior.  Maybe a week because it took a while for the official counts were in .  Shocked does not get 2 months of lying to your followers, many who believed your lies in their heart and soul.  And indeed, many still believe them.  

All the while he knew he lost, but "reverted to type".  Which in the past, after all contracts are signed, work is done, and Trump was holding the check for final payment, he would try to rework a deal.  A behavior he proudly describes in his book, "The Art of the Deal".

I had a hard time running down a video of the interview, I tried to find one on Fox News, where it was broadcasted, but no luck.  So this link is for the best I could find on secondary sources..

CNS News

On a side note, Giuliani has been temporarily barred from practicing law in New York for his part in inventing and promoting the many lies he told about the 2020 election.

Other lies you may have heard:

The Final Word

Addresses to Vacant Lots

Pennsylvania's Million Vote Dump

Nationwide More Ballots Than Voters

Stuffing the Ballot Box Video

Poll Worker Changing Votes Video

Lies, Damn Lies and Statistics

Votes Changed in Frankfort Germany

PA County with More Ballots Than Voters 

More Votes than Voters in Detroit

More Votes than Voters in Atlanta 


Friday, June 25, 2021

On the Job Front

 On the Job Front

By the Numbers

There is a lot of numbers on the job front.  Unemployment is going down, jobs are being created, employers cannot find workers.  Workers can't find jobs, workers won't find jobs. These all seem so contradictory.  

And they are.  The only thing the conflicting agendas can agree on is the economy is in a serious churn. And so there are numbers to support every position. 

At the gym, two different news channels.  "559,000 added to the payrolls", which on any other month would be great news, and on the other display the headline reads "-7.6 million since Feb, 2020".    

I do not believe that companies that added 559,000 jobs in a month are not able to find workers.  And I do not believe  "Generous unemployment benefits" kept those workers from seeking, and securing a position.  For those half a million jobs, employers and workers came to an agreement, and are now back in the races.

It's companies that refuse to acknowledge the world has changed.  They are doing things the way they used to, and workers are not accepting it.  Because, in addition to  "Generous unemployment benefits", people have reduced their expenses to a minimum, and are not as desperate to purchase that new toy.  

We survived 16 months of isolation, we can wait a little longer for reality to hit. 

After the Spanish flu pandemic. Wages went up significantly, from below a dollar an hour to about 1.75/hour by 1922.  Employers were desperate for workers, even with a flood of returning soldiers from WWI.  

After the Black Plague worked it's way through Europe.  Wages went up significantly as well.  We are seeing the signs now.  Efficiency has gone up.  So corporate costs are down.  Some of them are using that efficiency to hire top talent at a good price.  Others are waiting for the price of the talent to go down, and they now are complaining when it is not available or sub standard.

Many businesses are trying desperately to fight a rise in the minimum wage.  Many of them may not even have employees making minimum wage on their payrolls.

Why?  Because in this country, you do NOT get what you earn.  You get what you negotiate for.  And negotiation is not a skill set for many.  It certainly isn't one of my best skills.  So you have to start at a number.  And there is an axiom in negotiation.  The first person to put out a number has lost.  And if you find negotiation makes you uncomfortable, that number is out there for you.  

It's $7.25/hr.  That is the number you have to justify in your negotiations that you are worth more than.  Are you worth double minimum wage?  Triple?  Quadruple?  

And someone making $22/hr is doing fairly well on that scale and is probably happy.  But if the minimum wage is now $15, he has to start thinking that he is underpaid and deserves $45/hr.  And he is probably right to do so.  Employers don't want to go through that hell.  

But that's ok, because some other company will pay him $45/hour now.  Or close enough as to not matter. 

That is another reality in today's world.  The only way to get a good raise is from another company. This has been true for decades, but it's going to be more true now.

Employers that hire the talent now are going to succeed, the ones holding on to the old scales are doomed.

Here is my perspective.  I am a contractor.  My previous position ended on 12/2019.  I took a month off, and then the world changed...

I am used to finding work.  I have been doing it since 2004. My skill sets are in high demand, and I am at the top of my field.  Normally it takes me 6 weeks between positions.  

And the positions were being posted, all through Covid I was receiving prospects.  Companies with self described "Urgent Needs".  And I applied and received very few replies.  I probably applied to over a 1,000 positions in 16 months.  And that is not an exaggeration.  I had talked to recruiters and asked what's up?  They all said the companies are not answering back.  They put out requirements, accept names, and nothing.  

So why were companies putting out requisitions?  They think they were building stables of available talent.  So a thousand companies think I'll be available when they are ready, All of them were disappointed.  I still get a dozen prospects a day.

Now we have another case.  A young man, talented, some experience, and a degree in business from a major university.

He can't find a job.  Employers are not calling back.  The same employers that complain they cannot find workers, but ignore the prospects that are answering them.

One explanation is they are used to a lower wage, and don't want new hires locked into a higher tier.  But then the question is, why put out the requisitions at all?  

I don't believe in conspiracies, especially if it covers 10's of thousands of entities.  So I'll look for environmental behavior drivers.  

My current theory is information overload.  If you put out an Facebook ad looking for workers for your company, how many replies did you receive? On the low end 100's.  Could be 1,000's.  On the company's end there is one guy.  How many will he reply too?  10 a day? How many can he interview?  How many are qualified?  This could all be down to percentages.  

Call it chaos theory, or call it luck.  

So the companies that adapt to the new environment will get a head start at this new race.  The others will fall behind.  

So if you are an investor, I would look at a company that complains it cannot find workers and use that as part of the decision tree not to invest.  And look for companies that are quietly moving forward.  

There is no guarantees here, but frankly, they had 16 months to prepare for reopening.  Those that failed to plan on new on-boarding are now flailing in the economic churn.  To those that did plan, the talent is available in numbers, ready for the picking.

Just my 2 cents.


 

 

 

 

 


Wednesday, June 23, 2021

Coronavirus, the Late June Edition

 

Coronavirus, the Late June Edition

By the Numbers

The overall number of active cases continue to plummet, and I do not use that word lightly. Crashing through the 6 digit figures.  

Date    Calculated umber of active cases (in hundreds of thousands)
6/20            200's
6/12            300's
6/6             400's
6/1             500's
5/29            600's        
5/23            700's
5/21            800's
5/17            900's

=================================================================

Factors in the low number of active cases are, of course, the vaccination rate continues to climb.  (But then, it cannot decline)  And those testing for Covid are increasing coming up negative.  At it's peak in Pennsylvania, 12% of all tests were positive, now the number is 1.5%. 

================================================================= 

The Variants FAQ

Since the Variants are now being identified as Greek letters, here is a chart to help

A) Officially known as B.1.117, formally named as "Kent".  The major vaccines have demonstrated at least 90% effectiveness.  The variant is minorly more infectious and no less lethal.

B) Officially known as B.1.351, formally named as "South Africa".  The major vaccines have demonstrated at least 75% effectiveness.  The variant is minorly more infectious and more lethal.

G) Officially known as P.1, formally named as "Brazil".  The major vaccines have demonstrated at least 95% effectiveness.  The variant is minorly more infectious and no less lethal.

D) Officially known as B.1.617, formally named as "India".  The major vaccines have demonstrated at least 88% effectiveness.  But otherwise this variant is the most infectious, and more lethal. 

E) Officially known as B.1.429.   The major vaccines have demonstrated at least 95% effectiveness.  The variant is minorly more infectious and no less lethal.

I) Officially known as B.1.526.   The major vaccines have demonstrated at least 95% effectiveness.  The variant is minorly more infectious and no less lethal.

Not yet assigned, I guess Californians is fair game to stigmatize.  Officially known as CAL.20C, formally named as "California".  The major vaccines have demonstrated at least 95% effectiveness.  The variant is minorly more infectious and no less lethal.

=======================================================================

In a press briefing on June 22.  Dr Fauci and others mentioned that  20% of Covid survivors, that were asymptomatic during the disease, were later treated or hospitalized for one or more of the "long hauler" symptoms including pneumonia,  shortness of breath, chest pain, and fatigue.

Reported in the Lancet earlier this year, that among the severe Covid cases, 7% suffered a stroke within 6 months.  

A group of researchers in Texas has uncovered genetic manipulation the virus in areas where it was deep seated.

Anecdotal story:  We have a local coach that caught C-19 and his comments afterwards.  "Covid was nothing, but then I caught pneumonia and spent weeks in the hospital."  Mike drop...

=======================================================================

Experimentation on humans is largely regarded as bad thing.  So experimentation mainly takes the form of statistical analysis with attempts to separate all the other causes that may be the root of the problem.

There are those that reject the vaccine, because they do not want to be experimented on.  Well then, welcome to the control group!

The Delta variant, formally known as "India" is now the dominant variant in the UK.  In the US, Delta has taken root in the swaths of unvaccinated population, mostly in the southern areas.  How much more infectious?  How much more lethal?  We are going to find out.  Welcome to the control group!

Brazil's leader has enforced HCQ as the only effective treatment, and his country is paying the price.  They sell it as a cocktail called "Early Treatment".  It is a mix of anti-parasitic, anti-bacterial, vitamins, and HCQ.  Of the first three, none are effective on viruses, and HCQ has been shown in only 1 study to be have some minor efficacy if taken before the disease is caught.  

But this cocktail is the only treatment allowed by the government.  So far, 500,000 have died, and the number of active cases in Brazil has doubled since February.  

So next time someone complains about not allowing HCQ as a treatment, we can reply, "Thank God, look at Brazil!" 

=======================================================================

Anecdotal story: The IT Department in a Florida government building, Manatee County.  Experienced a Covid outbreak of the "Delta" variant.  7 people, all serious cases, 2 dead, 4 more hospitalized.  The only uninfected member of the team was vaccinated. 

They wore masks as mandated indoors, but the general rules do not take into account the time factor.  8 hours exposure with a mask could be like 15 minutes unmasked.  I don't know the exact ratio here, but time is a factor.  That is one reason that wearing a mask outdoors is mostly useless.  If you are just passing an infected person, that 15 seconds is the more dominant factor.   

Statistically, with millions of examples, extreme clusters are going to happen.  That is how random numbers work.  But it is a poignant example, none the less.

Back last year, Dr Fauci tried to explain this, and did so poorly, and was totally taken out of context to mean that masks didn't work.  Then later they claimed he flip flopped.  He didn't change is mind there, but didn't explain very well the time factor.

=======================================================================

What are monoclonal antibodies?  I know I am getting ad's for this treatment, often in the form of "Why doesn't the government want me to be treated with it?" 

First, monoclonal antibodies are clones of the antibodies you want to have to attack the disease in question.  This is not new science.

They have only been tested in mild to moderate cases of Covid.  The company claims 87% reduction of hospitalizations and death.  The FDA tests have 7% deaths in a placebo group vs 2% in the treatment group.  So they do seem effective. 

The FDA has approved their use since February.  So ad's about the government not allowing them are lies.  And frankly, if you lie to me in the headline, I am not interested in reading the text.  Some claims of cures within hours defies credulity.  

It seems that the cost is driving this treatment.  I am seeing $95,000 as a treatment cost.  This explains the excessive advertising. 

=======================================================================

Not Covid related, but I couldn't resist.  

Doctors in Germany had a patient in the emergency room after overdosing on a homeopathic remedy.  

Homeopathic medicine is an extremely diluted solution.  But magically done in a way that maintains the "essence" of the active ingredient, while removing the active ingredient itself.  You will see somewhere on the box a number and an X, euphemistically referred to as "Potency".  6X is common, but it goes up to 30X.  Each 'X' has 1/10th the active ingredient of the previous X.  At around 24X, depending on the amount (18 grams), there is a 50/50 chance of having a single molecule of active ingredient.

The Amazing Randy would prove the ineffectiveness of Homeopathic medicine by taking a whole box or two.  

So this German got a box of incorrectly processed remedy, and started having nerve problems, because it contained about 600 times the normal dosage of atropine normally used to dilate you eyes.  

FYI. Atropine is used to treat soldiers from nerve gas attacks.  But you first have to make sure you have been poisoned, or else the cure will kill you.  

He did live, so no Darwin here.










Thursday, June 10, 2021

Coronavirus, the Mid June Edition

Coronavirus, the Mid June Edition

By the Numbers

5,235.   My spreadsheet posted this number without comment, my internal music did not do a fanfare.  Out of habit, I then looked at the calculated* number of  active cases.  And noted in satisfaction that the total dropped into the high 600,000's.  

Then it truly hit me.

5,235.  On Memorial Day, the official count of new Covid cases, NATION WIDE, was just 5,235!

Whoa....

I know I am over emphasizing this.  But you have to understand, I am a numbers guy.  Numbers tell me stories.  And I have been reading this story 15 months.  I have now turned a page to reveal the final chapter.  The American medical system, the hero of this story, after dealing with tragedy, loss, adversity, and incompetency, is working towards the final win.  To use a military metaphor, this is D-Day at Normandy.  We are now on the ground and working towards the final defeat of the villain of this story.

Then for an epilogue, a Marshall plan, to save the rest of the world.  This time with the help of strong allies.

Let me put this in context.  First of all, having a plunge in new cases over a weekend, especially a holiday weekend, is not new, but an aberration of of the statistical accumulation and reporting.  (boy, was that pompous...) More people caught C-19 than was reported.  They will cycle through the system of testing and reporting through the rest of the week.  Typically Thursdays have spikes in the numbers.  And by Thursday, the number had risen to 17,821.  Which was down 22% from the previous Thursday at 22,800.

But the last time I saw a number of new cases with only 4 digits, even on a Sunday, was...

...

Never...

I didn't start logging "New Cases" until Sept. 2020. I did a switch over from reported "Active Cases" to "New Cases" to put some realism into inflated numbers that was reported as currently infected.  On Sept 21, 2020, we had 36,372 new cases.  At that time the new case number was increasing about 2%, per day.  That is a doubling rate of 36 days.  30 days later, the number of new cases was 63,663, and increasing by 3% per day, now doubling every 24 days.

The peak was on January 8th, when the CDC reported 301,000 new cases, of which, around 2,800 would die.

When I first started, my wife asked me why I am doing this?  My reply was, "How can I not do it?"  It was later I realized that just keeping this to myself was a bit of perverse masochism.  And so I started putting out out my reports, first as an email blast to friends, but eventually on the more formal blog post format.

And for the record, looking back at semi-official sources, the last time we saw a 4 digit number of new cases, was Mar 23, 2020.  At that time the number of new cases was growing about 25% per day.

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On June 6th, the estimated number of cases plunged below 500,000.  Down from a million 3 weeks earlier.  The last time we had that few active cases was April 10th, 2020. By Thursday, June 10th, the number was 428,000.

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The variants of C-19 will no longer be named after their location where first identified, like Kent, South Africa, Brazil or India, but by Greek letters.  Alpha, Beta, Gamma, and Delta.  So we no longer stigmatize the Africans, Brazilians or Indians, but the Greeks are fair game. ;)

There is an official variant identification, like for South Africa, but  B.1.351 just doesn't roll off the tongue like "Beta".

Is this going to work?  Or will it be Pi in the Psi? Or is Alpha nothing?  Or will it Eta way at them?

I think I'll need to put a a Kappa on this.

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An update on the Seychelles Islands, population 98,000.  Since it is an island and as close as possible to an isolated experiment with human subjects.  

Recap:  For most of 2020, The Seychelles shut down all travel, and from what I can see in the charts, had just one case of C-19 until December, 2020.  From Dec to April they had between 0 to 50 new cases reported daily.  From then to the end of April they fought the virus with lock downs and managed to vaccinate 62% of their population.  On April 28, with only 610 active cases, they removed restrictions. Their vaccination rate was the highest in the world, and they had a vested interest in rebooting their tourist industry, they reopened the country.

And the cases exploded 175% to 1,068 in 6 days.

Then it got worse. The day after I reported on this, on May 5th, they added another 500 new cases in a single day.  For comparison, if that percentage was applied to the USA, it would be like adding another 1,500,000 new cases in a single day.   As mentioned above, the USA peaked at 301,000 in a single day.

It has declined since, to between 100 to 200 cases a day.  Their vaccination rate is now 67%.  

This comparison gives evidence that the shutdowns in the USA did prevent a massive pandemic.  Back in Mar, 2020, we were projecting 8 million cases by the end of May.  "Flattening the curve" reduced that to "only" a million.

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The controversy on if the the virus was a natural mutation or not is gaining traction in the media.  First, to be clear, there is no new evidence bring this to the forefront.  

Other than it "just happened", the theories are:

1) China created and released this virus deliberately  

    While China has zero regard for their people, they are not stupid.  If this was an intentional release, they would have released it anywhere but next to one of their labs.

2) China created and released this virus accidentally.

        Various geneticist's have done forensics on the virus and have found no evidence of tampering. 

3) China was studying an unmodified version of the virus and it was released accidentally.

    This could be true.  There is no evidence one way or the other.  China has not been very forthcoming to the investigators.  If it is true, then China looks like bunch of idiots.  

4) The US created the virus and released it in Wuhun to blame China as part of it's ongoing war with China.

    ....

So you'll hear more about this in the news, but what you won't hear is anything new.

As a side note, the above theories have been suggested for all of the disease outbreaks in the last 20 years.  So nothing new there either.

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New Jersey has published information on "Breakthrough" cases of C-19.  IE, people that have been vaccinated but got it anyway.

.06% of the vaccinated group got C-19 anyway.  So 6 in 10,000 totaling 1,319 cases.  505 had symptoms, 92 were hospitalized, 14 died.  The number of actual cases is probably higher for those who had C-19, but didn't seek help, as they had minor symptoms or did recognize them.  

Compared to the expected 95% efficacy rate, this is excellent news.  .06% is about 80 times better than 5%.  Even if the number of "Breakthrough" cases is 10x that number, the efficacy rate is still much better than advertised.

72% of New Jersey is fully vaccinated and their new case numbers are around 200 per day, down from 400 per day 3 weeks ago.

I object to the media term "Breakthrough" cases.  It reeks with hyperbole.  It implies the virus is chiselling away at the vaccine wall.  But what can you do?

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The Texas Experiment continues.  The numbers now reflect the population differences.  PA has 40% the population of Texas.  The numbers represent the average daily new cases.

WeekEnding   Texas    PA
12/14/2020  14,412    10,493 <- PA's worst week
1/11/2021   22,927    8,732 <-Texas's worst week
3/1/2021     7,113    2,614 <-Texas removes all restrictions
3/8/2021     5,413    2,487
3/15/2021    4,437    2,492
3/22/2021    3,647    2,976
3/29/2021    3,443    4,019
4/5/2021     2,816    4,063
4/12/2021    3,467    4,336
4/19/2021    3,013    4,782
4/26/2021    3,095    3,821
5/3/2021     3,106    3,190
5/10/2021    2,200    2,299
5/17/2021    2,075    1,762
5/24/2021    1,666    1,342
5/31/2021    1,234      794
6/7/2021     1,197      487

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The final data is in on traffic deaths in 2020.  It was noted earlier that fatalities per mile were up, but overall miles traveled was down, so overall the roads were safer.

It turns out this was wishful thinking. Both deaths per mile AND total fatalities on the roads were up in 2020.

Total fatalities was up 8% (42,060) in 2020 over 2019, and the fatality rate per 100 million miles traveled is up 24%.  People are taking advantage of the reduced traffic to drive at insane speeds.

One example is in Minnesota.  In 2019, they issued 500 tickets for drivers going over 100mph.  In 2020 that number was 1,068.


* the sum of the last 21 days of new cases, times 6% for serious and ICU cases