Coronavirus, End of March, 2024

Coronavirus, End of March, 2024

 By the Numbers

It's been a couple of months since the last update.  Not much to report, and that is a good thing.

The Numbers: 

The number of hospitalizations from Covid in the US seems to have hit its peak the first week of January,  and is now in decline.  From 35,000 on Jan 6, 2024 to 9,300 the third week of March.  The overall low in the last 12 months was last May at 6,000. Weekly Covid deaths is down sharply from 2,500 in January to 240 in March.  Covid has dropped to 4th most likely cause of death in the US.  For a reference the leading causes are, in order, Heart Disease, Cancer, Accidents, Covid, then Stroke.

Source Covid-19 hospitalizations here...

Dominant Variants in the US:

JN.1  97.8% up from 7.5% in November

And the rest don't matter...

But at least it was easy to summarize.  

Per CDC tracker...

Too Much of a Good Thing?

A 62 year old man in Germany has been reported to have received 217 Covid vaccines.  In all, he received 8 different types of vaccines.  How and why is not important.  He has now become what is euphemistically called an "Interesting Case Study".

Since then, he has been studied for a number of things of interest to immunologists.

His immune system did not collapse from being overloaded.  Which has been touted by anti-vaccine nutballs as an excuse not to get MMR vaccine.

Other than a sore arm, he is suffering no ill effects.  No liver or kidney damage, no development of auto-immune disease. 

His level of memory and effector T-Cells against Covid is 5 times better than "Wild" Covid, and 11 times better against Omicron. 

He had none of the indicators that he ever contracted Covid.  Which could be from the hyper-vaccination, but could also be just behavioral.

The quality of other antigens he had been vaccinated for showed no degradation.

In all, the German health services ran some 60+ tests on the man.  This is why you do not want to be an "Interesting" case study.

There are many articles on this.  Here is one...

And as a reminder, Don't do this at home folks...

Mixed Blessings

All the tactics deployed to keep Covid from spreading had a collateral effect of having the mildest flu season in over a decade.  Just 5,000 deaths from flu in 2021-22.  The nearest after that was 12,000 in 2011-12.

And it seems like distancing and masks have killed off one of the 4 main strains of flu.  The branch, "Yamagata", hasn't been seen in a couple of years, and this year's flu vaccine will not include it's formula.

The other strains are 2 labeled 'A' H1N1 and H3N2, and 'B', "Victoria".  Article BMJ Yale

Just a refresher.

If you have one or more of the comorbidities (age, weight, diabetes), and test positive for Covid, then getting Paxlovid within 5 days reduces the effects of Covid.  Even though the latest variants are milder, as of mid February, 21,000 still required hospitalization for 2024, and about 10,000 deaths are reported.  Note, that is not 10,000 of the hospitalized. 

Of those hospitalized, 66% are 65 and over.  50% are 75 and over.  And as validation of vaccine effectiveness, only 4% of the those hospitalized had received the latest version of the vaccine out last fall.

The isolation rules have been changed from a hard 5 days to 24 hours fever free.

For 65 and older, a booster shot is being recommended in the spring.  This shot will be the same vaccine as was given in the fall.  

 

 

 

 

Coronavirus, February 2024

Coronavirus, February 2024

 By the Numbers

The Numbers: 

The number of hospitalizations from Covid in the US seems to have hit its peak and is now in decline.  From 15,000 in November to 35,000 on Jan 6, 2024.  By Jan 20, the number of admissions had dropped to 26,600.  For perspective, the low for the year was 6,000 in May.  So the peak did not hit 44,000 that was the first week of January, 2023.  Covid deaths are now about 1,500 a week.  Covid has dropped to 4th most likely cause of death in the US.

Source Covid-19 hospitalizations here...

Dominant Variants in the US:

JN.1  86% up from 7.5% in November
HV.1    5.3% Down from 31% in November
XBB's   1(ish)%  Down from 12% in November
JD 1.1   1.6%, down from 7.7% in November
BA 2.86  1.5%, down from 8.8%  last month
And the rest don't matter...

Per CDC tracker...

All the dominant variants are still "Omicron" derived, and the latest vaccine is still effective at mitigating the symptoms. 

There has been hype about variant JN.1 now being dominant.  But it is mostly filler for the news.  The variant is no more or less lethal than its ancestor.  But again is listed as more virulent.  I have had so many variants listed as "more virulent" that the numbers just don't matter.

Long Covid Update

A Dutch study of 25 Long Covid patients has offered clues as to the reasons for fatigue suffered by Long Covid patients.  ..."acute exercise-induced reduction in skeletal muscle mitochondrial enzyme activity"...  Mitochondria turn sugar and oxygen into energy in cells.  If that is damaged, then the ability to exercise is limited.  So individuals inclined to hit the gym to rebuild their lost muscle mass and endurance can't.

Caveats however are the small sample size of 25 LC patients and a control group of 21. 

Covid v Flu Addendum

I do not think I was totally clear last article on the Covid v Flu differences.  Comparing Covid to Flu deaths last year, 98,000 to 4,900 would give the impression that Covid is 20 times more lethal.  But the number of flu deaths and hospitalizations are also way down from the average.  

In the last 10 years, the worst flu season, 2017/18, claimed 52,000 lives.  The least was 2011/12 with  12,000.  The average was 34,500.  About 1 person in 12 hospitalized by flu dies.   Per the CDC

Since 11/1/2022, with the dominance of the Omicron variant, the number hospitalized for Covid is 7.1 million, 68,000 have died, a percentage of just under 1%.  This seasons Flu has infected an estimated 18-35 million, 200-400 thousand have been hospitalized, of which 13 -38 thousand have died.  About .1% (that's point 1) percent if the estimated infected, and .8% of those hospitalized.  Per the CDC.

These statistics do not paint the complete picture.  And you will have to draw your own conclusions here.  The vast majority of flu sufferers do not get hospitalized.  Probably more than Covid.  But for the last year and then some, it is safe to say most Covid sufferers are also not being hospitalized.  

Since November, the number of weekly hospitalizations due to flu  peeked around Dec 30, at around 2,500, and has started to decline.

saRNA vaccines

Japan has authorized the first 'sa'RNA vaccine for Covid, referred to as "LUNAR-COV19".  The 'sa' stands for self-amplifying. While the previous mRNA vaccines did teach the body to make antibodies against Covid, the saRNA's teach the body to make more mRNA.  In theory this means a much smaller dose is required.  And it should last longer.  

A previous saRNA against flu required just 1/64th the dose.  

At this time, I am reticent about this.  A misfire could cause a "grey-goo" scenario.

For more information see here....

 

Godzilla Raids Again, a movie review.

Its  New Years Day.  The parade(s) are over and I have zero interest in the bowl games.  What to do?  Turner Classic Movies has a Godzilla marathon!  “Godzilla Raids Again”, the sequel to the last years (1954) feel good for the season movie*, “Godzilla”!

Feeling over salted and over fatted from the previous days festivities, I settled down to in front of the screen with an apple and two mandarin oranges.  Even the cat gave me the stink eye at the lack of lickable options. 

I am not sure if I ever saw this movie before.  Checking IMDB reveals it was released under different names, and was taken apart and reedited for a dinosaur flick, “The Volcano Monsters”.

The movie starts with a pilot scouting the ocean for fish for the Kobayashi fishing company.  After directing the Kobayashi Maru to a school of bonito, his radio team gets an emergency call that his buddy, also scouting for fish is going down near some island.

This island is small, you can see the whole thing in a shot, and it has to be near by Osaka, a few hundred miles a most, because the pilot returns there.  But of course, it is on this island we discover Godzilla, in his stop action form.  What are the odds?  Not only that, some other giant monster is there and they are in a brawl. 

The monsters, now in their vinyl suit form,  wrassle till they fall off the island and into the water.  The pilots escape, and tell the world that Godzilla is back, and from the description, the other monster is a giant ankylosaurus.  Mysteriously alive after 65 million years, and not so mysteriously (cough…H-Bomb… cough) grown from 25 feet to 150 feet long.

Japan goes on alert, the “Scientist”, played by an actor last seen in Seven Samurai, first notes that this must be Godzilla’s identical twin brother, since the real Godzilla was last seen stripped to the bone by a mad-scientist’s super acid, and calmly explains that Godzilla is suffering from PTSD from being H-Bombed, and is attracted to, indeed enraged, by lights.  A plan is devised.  When Godzilla shows up, the city will evacuate, go into complete black out, and planes will lure him out to sea with dropped flares.

And it works!  A Godzilla shaped object is first spotted by radar(!)**, the sighting then confirmed by a frigate(!)***.  Drama ensues.  People less than calmly evacuate, the city goes dark with amazing timing.  Not just the city lights, but the cars and trains all turn off their lights in the same second!  The planes fly by, flares are dropped, Godzilla takes a tail swipe at an light house, and heads out to sea.

But that would be a 40 minute movie.  We can’t have that.  So we inject a scene where a dozen prisoners, who are being evacuated, take control of their prison truck and split into 4 or 5 groups.  Police efficiency is at its best, even though there were only 4 police in the truck, every group of convicts has 3 or 4 police chasing them.

Except one group of convicts, who hot-wired a truck.  They were being chased by only 2 police in a commandeered vehicle driven by our hero, the pilot, mentioned in paragraph 4 above, who just happened to be driving by.  I guess when you pay top dollar for an actor, he gets as much face time as you can, no matter how contrived the situation.

They of course, crash into the Osaka refinery, starting a major conflagration, and catching the attention of Godzilla, along with his ankylosaurus wrestling buddy.  Mayhem ensues.  The wrassling kaiju are drawn to Osaka castle like tornadoes to a trailer park, and it is destroyed.      

After that, the budget being tight, Godzilla seems to be satisfied with the destruction in his wake, goes back out to sea.  Where he is found again by our sharp eyed hero, somewhere north of the island of Hokkaido.  What are the odds?  Hokkaido itself is about a 1,000 miles north of Osaka, and Godzilla is north of that!  Running out of fuel (no kidding), his scout plane is replaced by one flown by his buddy introduced in paragraph 4. 

We next see Godzilla in his non-animatronic incarnation (the device just didn’t work, so he just stands there motionless)  as he goes to ground on a small, but mountainous and glacier filled island.

The air force is sent to bomb Godzilla.  The hero pilot asks to join them.  And they accept.  Now he was an Army or Navy pilot during the war, so at least he deserved consideration.  But he has since been flying float planes, and not military jets.  So that would be a hard no all round.  But again, its the movies.  Independence day took this to the logic absurdity putting a drunk crop duster into a F18 super hornet.

Buddy dies because, “drama”, air force arrives, but bombs are useless.  The hero sees there is a chance to bury Godzilla in an icy avalanche.  Air force rearms and buries Godzilla in ice.

Where he will be forever, unless the planet warms up, or maybe, summer.

Could this be the same island that the US Air Force buried the Blob 3 years later?  There's an ugly thought.

*Godzilla came out in Nov, 1954, Godzilla Raids again, April, 1955.  Tells you a lot about the expected production values.

**As a former radar operator of 50's designed equipment, I find this description unlikely.  A big signal return, yes, but Godzilla shaped?  No.  Just a spike on the hash is all you will see.

***Probably a bad translation.  While there is no general definition for the term, "Frigate", but nothing in the post WWII Japanese navy would be described as such.