Coronavirus the Memorial Day Edition

Coronavirus, the Memorial Day Edition

By the Numbers

We hit a threshold right after last the last edition.  On Monday, May 17, the calculated number of infected went under a million, the growth rate about -.3%.  The last time we were under a million was October 11, when the number of new cases was growing by +3% per day. Then plunged faster than Bitcoin, to 890,000 5 days later, then under 800,000 2 days later (5/24).  As of 5/28 the estimated number of active cases is 729,000.

 

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I was on the PA state website regarding C-19, looking at county by county vaccination rates (Montgomery 59%, Chester 66%, Bucks 51%, state overall 41%) and noted a disclaimer on the recovered rate.  PA, like many other states is using an algorithm to determine the actual number of current cases.  Stating that if you haven't died, you recovered.

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As of 5/22, the state with the highest new cases, per capita, is Rhode Island, followed by Washington (state)  and Puerto Rico.

The states are, in order of the highest per capita of new cases

Order Number    State    Estimated 21x * 1.06 new cases   
1    Rhode Island     6,901    0.65%
2    Washington      35,393    0.46%
3    Puerto Rico     13,712    0.40%
4    West Virginia    6,344    0.35%
5    Colorado        18,075    0.31%
6    Delaware         3,005    0.31%
7    Pennsylvania    38,020    0.30%
8    Montana          3,027    0.28%
9    Maine            3,784    0.28%
10    Michigan       28,025    0.28%
11    Illinois       35,015    0.28%
12    Kentucky       12,043    0.27%
13    Wyoming         1,558    0.27%
14    Minnesota      15,115    0.27%
15    Oregon         11,019    0.26%
16    Indiana        17,541    0.26%
17    Florida        52,778    0.25%
18    Nevada          7,435    0.24%
19    Missouri       13,823    0.23%
20    North Carolina 22,705    0.22%
21    Idaho           3,740    0.21%
22    Utah            6,678    0.21%
23    South Carolina     10,418    0.20%
24    North Dakota     1,536    0.20%
25    Alabama     9,861    0.20%
26    Alaska     1,425    0.19%
27    Ohio     22,349    0.19%
28    New Mexico     3,851    0.18%
29    Arizona     12,710    0.17%
30    New York     32,566    0.17%
31    New Jersey     14,514    0.16%
32    Maryland     9,861    0.16%
33    Louisiana     7,568    0.16%
34    Wisconsin     9,038    0.16%
35    Kansas     4,519    0.16%
36    Arkansas     4,474    0.15%
37    Georgia     15,671    0.15%
38    Massachusetts     9,972    0.14%
39    Vermont     868    0.14%
40    Iowa     4,118    0.13%
41    New Hampshire     1,714    0.13%
42    Tennessee     8,526    0.12%
43    Texas     35,060    0.12%
44    Nebraska     2,315    0.12%
45    Connecticut     3,806    0.11%
46    Oklahoma     4,118    0.10%
47    Virginia     8,815    0.10%
48    Hawaii     1,358    0.10%
49    South Dakota     757    0.09%
50    District Of Columbia     601    0.09%
51    Mississippi     2,337    0.08%
52    California     27,224    0.07%

 

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The Texas Experiment continues. The number represented is the daily average of new cases for the week.    So for the first week represented, Texas had 99,223 new cases, or 14,175 per day.

WeekEnding     Texas    PA
12/7/2020     14,175   9,348
12/14/2020    14,412  10,493
12/21/2020    16,467   9,078
12/28/2020    13,270   7,669
1/4/2021      16,891   7,337
1/11/2021     22,927   8,732
1/18/2021     20,734   6,366
1/25/2021     18,815   5,305
2/1/2021      18,267   5,969
2/8/2021      12,487   3,895
2/15/2021    9,410    3,226
2/22/2021    5,012    2,681
3/1/2021     7,113    2,614  << Texas lifts restraints
3/8/2021     5,413    2,487
3/15/2021    4,437    2,492
3/22/2021    3,647    2,976
3/29/2021    3,443    4,019
4/5/2021     2,816    4,063
4/12/2021    3,467    4,336
4/19/2021    3,013    4,782
4/26/2021    3,095    3,821
5/3/2021     3,106    3,190
5/10/2021    2,200    2,299
5/17/2021    2,075    1,762
5/24/2021    1,666    1,342

5/31/2021                   <<PA Lifts restraints

Fully Vaccination Rates

PA   42%

TX   35%
USA 40%

Partially Vaccination Rates

PA   57%

TX   43%
USA 49%

 

The numbers say that Texas was right to lift restraints when they did.

By now, if there was to be a surge, then it would have happened, but Texas's drop in active cases is tracking with the rest of the country.

 

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I was listening to a Planet Money podcast that was interviewing an internet influencer on what message works the best to get people to accept the vaccine.

 

There has been extensive studies with feedback on what it takes.  Carrots or Sticks?  Oddball messages?  Social pressures?

 

Messages that did not work: 

    Shaming by showing what percentage your neighbors are vaccinated.

    Threats

    Offering $20

 

Messages that did work: 

    Telling someone that a dose has been reserved for them, and an appointment. (This worked the best)

     Offering $100

     Offering a free doughnut, every day, at Krispy Kreme.   

          A comment from one of the presenters, "That one is so stupid."  And the influencer being interviewed replied, "I thought so too, but my grandfather said that is why he got his."

 

 Planet money is always a good listen.  This podcast can be found at:

Podcast Article here

 

 

Coronavirus, the Mid May Edition

Coronavirus, the Mid May Edition

By the Numbers

The calculated number of active cases continues to drop. As of May 6th, the number of active cases was the new nationwide low for the year.  The last was on Mar 22 before the "4th", and hopefully last, surge, which was an estimated 1,347,000 afflicted. 

 

I do a calculation based on adding up the previous 3 weeks of new cases, and then multiplying by 1.06 for the estimated long term cases. This is because the various medical systems do not keep good track of the number of recovered individuals, and is why the CDC reports about 7,000,000 cases. They can only report the data they have.

As of May 12th, the estimated number of active cases was at 1,144,000 and falling rapidly.  The number of new cases was less than half the high of the last surge.

My estimated numbers may be off by as much as 20% from reality, and I suspect with better treatments they are, but I am going to ride them out till the end for consistencies sake. Keeping the comparisons "Apples to Apples".

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Even fully vaccinated people need to take care, especially if you are in the high risk category, which almost all of my readers are. (because that is my target group) Enough fully vaccinated people have now died of C-19 to have a reasonably accurate numbers.

The good news is that among the over 110 million fully vaccinated Americans, that the efficacy of the vaccines seems higher than the test groups of last year. In excess of 99% vice of 95%.  But I have suspicions about that.

For those that do catch the virus, the symptoms are much mitigated. More “asymptomatic”, shorter hospital stays, less severity. And most importantly a shorter time of being infectious.

But there are still fatalities. The numbers reported by the CDC is .008% has become infected, and of them, 1% has died. So the odds are 1 in 1,250,000. See the article  here.

I suspect however, that the 99% efficacy number for the fully vaccinated is not accurate. In the case described in the article above, the victim became ill, but was not tested for C-19, because he was vaccinated, and so, was misdiagnosed. He may have been saved otherwise. I suspect the 95% for the testing groups last year is closer to the truth.

Also, I believe that “It can’t be C-19, I’m vaccinated”, is probably a typical mindset.

So keep following the guidelines. Avoidance is still the best tool. Until the number of active cases is low enough that you are unlikely to be exposed in a group.

AND, IF YOU HAVE ANY OF THE SYMPTOMS, GET CHECKED. What bothers me about the numbers is the fatality rate for the vaccinated that catch C-19 is about the same as unvaccinated at 1%.

As of 4/20, 75 million vaccinated, 6,000 fully vaccinated were infected (<.1%) .  Of them, 400 were  hospitalized (<10% of 6,000), 74 died. (>1% 6,000).


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Interesting factoid on how pernicious this virus is. The Seychelles, an island in the Indian Ocean, with a population of 98,000, has vaccinated 62% of its population, the highest rate in the world. But still has had an outbreak in the last few weeks. On April 28, they had 612 active cases, and 6 days later the number grew to 1,068. Forcing them to go back into lock-down.

That is about 1.5% of the unvaccinated population catching the virus in under a week. The main explanation is relaxed restrictions in anticipation of the tourist crowd.

It gives us a perspective of where "Herd Immunity" is. It was hoped that 70% would be enough, but this Seychelles "experiment" belies that.

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Another study has demonstrated that if you have had C-19 previously, then only one of the two-shot vaccines is necessary to get your system up to snuff.

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In it's latest guidelines, the CDC announced that “less than 10 percent” of Covid-19 transmission had occurred outdoors.  Other virologists state that while true, the number is really < 1%.  And those cases were crowds or close conversations.  So enjoy the out doors worry free.

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Since my spread sheet macros are still tracking Texas vs Pennsylvania. Here are the weekly averages up till now. Texas removed all restrictions on Mar 3, PA went to 25% restrictions (??) in Mid April, and plans to remove all restrictions on May 31.

This is an odd decision for PA. On Mar 3, only 3 counties were in the "Red" zone. But with the 4th surge, on April 29, all but 3 counties were back in the "Red" Zone. Counties that are in red zones have more than 100 new cases per 100,000 residents, per week.

Pennsylvania's population is 40% that of Texas, so this means Pennsylvania is more than twice as infected as Texas.

WeekEnding In        Texas       PA
12/7/2020            14,175    9,348
12/14/2020           14,412   10,493
12/21/2020           16,467    9,078
12/28/2020           13,270    7,669
1/4/2021             16,891    7,337
1/11/2021            22,927    8,732
1/18/2021            20,734    6,366
1/25/2021            18,815    5,305
2/1/2021             18,267    5,969
2/8/2021             12,487    3,895
2/15/2021             9,410    3,226
2/22/2021             5,012    2,681
3/1/2021              7,113    2,614
3/8/2021              5,413    2,487
3/15/2021             4,437    2,492
3/22/2021             3,647    2,976
3/29/2021             3,443    4,019
4/5/2021              2,816    4,063
4/12/2021             3,467    4,336
4/19/2021             3,013    4,782
4/26/2021             3,095    3,821
5/3/2021              3,106    3,190
5/10/2021             2,200    2,299