Coronavirus the Memorial Day Edition

Coronavirus, the Memorial Day Edition

By the Numbers

We hit a threshold right after last the last edition.  On Monday, May 17, the calculated number of infected went under a million, the growth rate about -.3%.  The last time we were under a million was October 11, when the number of new cases was growing by +3% per day. Then plunged faster than Bitcoin, to 890,000 5 days later, then under 800,000 2 days later (5/24).  As of 5/28 the estimated number of active cases is 729,000.

 

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I was on the PA state website regarding C-19, looking at county by county vaccination rates (Montgomery 59%, Chester 66%, Bucks 51%, state overall 41%) and noted a disclaimer on the recovered rate.  PA, like many other states is using an algorithm to determine the actual number of current cases.  Stating that if you haven't died, you recovered.

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As of 5/22, the state with the highest new cases, per capita, is Rhode Island, followed by Washington (state)  and Puerto Rico.

The states are, in order of the highest per capita of new cases

Order Number    State    Estimated 21x * 1.06 new cases   
1    Rhode Island     6,901    0.65%
2    Washington      35,393    0.46%
3    Puerto Rico     13,712    0.40%
4    West Virginia    6,344    0.35%
5    Colorado        18,075    0.31%
6    Delaware         3,005    0.31%
7    Pennsylvania    38,020    0.30%
8    Montana          3,027    0.28%
9    Maine            3,784    0.28%
10    Michigan       28,025    0.28%
11    Illinois       35,015    0.28%
12    Kentucky       12,043    0.27%
13    Wyoming         1,558    0.27%
14    Minnesota      15,115    0.27%
15    Oregon         11,019    0.26%
16    Indiana        17,541    0.26%
17    Florida        52,778    0.25%
18    Nevada          7,435    0.24%
19    Missouri       13,823    0.23%
20    North Carolina 22,705    0.22%
21    Idaho           3,740    0.21%
22    Utah            6,678    0.21%
23    South Carolina     10,418    0.20%
24    North Dakota     1,536    0.20%
25    Alabama     9,861    0.20%
26    Alaska     1,425    0.19%
27    Ohio     22,349    0.19%
28    New Mexico     3,851    0.18%
29    Arizona     12,710    0.17%
30    New York     32,566    0.17%
31    New Jersey     14,514    0.16%
32    Maryland     9,861    0.16%
33    Louisiana     7,568    0.16%
34    Wisconsin     9,038    0.16%
35    Kansas     4,519    0.16%
36    Arkansas     4,474    0.15%
37    Georgia     15,671    0.15%
38    Massachusetts     9,972    0.14%
39    Vermont     868    0.14%
40    Iowa     4,118    0.13%
41    New Hampshire     1,714    0.13%
42    Tennessee     8,526    0.12%
43    Texas     35,060    0.12%
44    Nebraska     2,315    0.12%
45    Connecticut     3,806    0.11%
46    Oklahoma     4,118    0.10%
47    Virginia     8,815    0.10%
48    Hawaii     1,358    0.10%
49    South Dakota     757    0.09%
50    District Of Columbia     601    0.09%
51    Mississippi     2,337    0.08%
52    California     27,224    0.07%

 

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The Texas Experiment continues. The number represented is the daily average of new cases for the week.    So for the first week represented, Texas had 99,223 new cases, or 14,175 per day.

WeekEnding     Texas    PA
12/7/2020     14,175   9,348
12/14/2020    14,412  10,493
12/21/2020    16,467   9,078
12/28/2020    13,270   7,669
1/4/2021      16,891   7,337
1/11/2021     22,927   8,732
1/18/2021     20,734   6,366
1/25/2021     18,815   5,305
2/1/2021      18,267   5,969
2/8/2021      12,487   3,895
2/15/2021    9,410    3,226
2/22/2021    5,012    2,681
3/1/2021     7,113    2,614  << Texas lifts restraints
3/8/2021     5,413    2,487
3/15/2021    4,437    2,492
3/22/2021    3,647    2,976
3/29/2021    3,443    4,019
4/5/2021     2,816    4,063
4/12/2021    3,467    4,336
4/19/2021    3,013    4,782
4/26/2021    3,095    3,821
5/3/2021     3,106    3,190
5/10/2021    2,200    2,299
5/17/2021    2,075    1,762
5/24/2021    1,666    1,342

5/31/2021                   <<PA Lifts restraints

Fully Vaccination Rates

PA   42%

TX   35%
USA 40%

Partially Vaccination Rates

PA   57%

TX   43%
USA 49%

 

The numbers say that Texas was right to lift restraints when they did.

By now, if there was to be a surge, then it would have happened, but Texas's drop in active cases is tracking with the rest of the country.

 

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I was listening to a Planet Money podcast that was interviewing an internet influencer on what message works the best to get people to accept the vaccine.

 

There has been extensive studies with feedback on what it takes.  Carrots or Sticks?  Oddball messages?  Social pressures?

 

Messages that did not work: 

    Shaming by showing what percentage your neighbors are vaccinated.

    Threats

    Offering $20

 

Messages that did work: 

    Telling someone that a dose has been reserved for them, and an appointment. (This worked the best)

     Offering $100

     Offering a free doughnut, every day, at Krispy Kreme.   

          A comment from one of the presenters, "That one is so stupid."  And the influencer being interviewed replied, "I thought so too, but my grandfather said that is why he got his."

 

 Planet money is always a good listen.  This podcast can be found at:

Podcast Article here