Friday, August 25, 2023

The Donald Went Down to Georgia

My apologies to the Charlie Daniels Band

The Donald Went Down to Georgia, he was lookin’ for votes to steal
He was in a bind ‘ he was way behind
And he was willin' to make a deal

When he came across this governor man maken deals and playin' it hot
And the Donald made a conference call
And said, "boy, let me tell you what"

“You may not know this, but I’m  a deal maker too
The best there is, and I’ll make a deal with you.
Now you’re a pretty good governor boy,
I’ll give you your due
Just 12,000 votes against the USA’s soul
'Cause I know I'm better than you"

The governor said, "my name's Kemp and I know that its a sin
But I'll take your call, you're gonna regret
'Cause I'm the best there's ever been"

Kemp, call up your constitutional scholars now,
'Cause Hell's broke loose in Georgia, when Forty-Five deals the cards
If you win, you get this foot note in the history books
But if you lose, the USA loses it’s soul

The Donald opened up his case and he said, "I'll start this show"
And fire flew from the phone as his bombast began to flow
Their Twitter feeds went ding
His sycophants made an evil hiss
Then a band of lawyers joined in
And it sounded something like this

11,780 votes, Hilary, Laptop, Election stolen lies, fake news, etc…

When the Donald finished, Kemp said, "Not good enough, ol' son
But sit down in that chair right there
And let me show you how it's done"

"Election Fraud Lies, Oh come on…"
“More Ballots Cast than Voters, Really now?”
“Dead Voters Casting Ballots, There were exactly two.”
“Vote Routed Through Frankfort, Germany?  How does that work?”

The Donald bowed his head because he knew that he'd been beat
And he left the conference call in a huff, offering no conceit.  
Krmp said, "Donald, just come on back if you ever wanna try again
Attorney Carr will be indict if you ever wanna try again

 

 

Coronavirus, Late August 2023

Coronavirus, Late August 2023

 By the Numbers

The Numbers: 

The weekly hospitalization numbers with Covid was 12,600 for the week ending Aug 12. This is up from 7,100 around July 21. For perspective, the lowest weekly hospitalization numbers was in June at 6,200. The highest was over 100k last year.

Source Covid-19 hospitalizations here...

Dominant Variants in the US:

XBB's  60% Down from 83% in Mid July
EG.5    23.9% Up from 11% in Mid July

FL 1.5   13.3% Up from zero in mid July

And the rest...

Per CDC tracker...

Repeat Covid Summer "Bump"

This is a rerun, as the numbers of the bump have increased since last missive. From a low of 6,200 to 12,600 for the week ending Aug 12, more than doubled.

The main Covid news is about the increase in Covid hospitalized cases reported late this month. Explanations as to why range from new variants to increased traveling.

My theory, and it is just my theory, is that our Covid herd immunity is timing out. The body has two types of immune memory. One is short term, as with the common cold or flu, and the other is long term, as with mumps and measles. Our body's defenses treat Covid like a cold and relegate it to short term memory. So the 4th booster shots and last major surges in December are timing out. Combined with increased exposure through things like air travel and other normal human behavior, and you have a bump.

Another reason is only 17% of the population received the latest bivalent booster.  81% received the original vaccine.   

The "Bump" no longer accurately describes this increase, now double, in the number of cases.  Hospital systems are considering going back to requiring masks on the premises.  

EG.5, aka "Eris"

You may see headlines of how the variant "Eris" is now the dominant strain of Covid in the US. While totally true, it is also totally misleading. See the above numbers. EG.5 is gaining traction, but the total of the XBB's is still the majority of the cases.

There is no increase in cases or deaths or that infections involving this variant are more severe.

The Next Vaccine

The next vaccines are scheduled for release in mid September. The vaccine was built from the XBB 1.5, "The Kraken", variant. Currently about 5% of all infections are XBB 1.5, but most of the the variants, including "Eris", and FL 1.5.1 totaling 97% of all current infections, are descended from it.

The new vaccines will be produced by Moderna, Pfizer and Novavax. J&J is no longer producing Covid Vaccines. 

An Anecdotal Story About Mask Effectiveness

A story related by Dr. Steven Novella on the latest podcast of "Skeptics Guide to the Universe."  His hospital went mask optional 3 weeks ago.  And he now has caught his first cold, not Covid, in over 3 years.  No mystery as to why.  He sees many patients a day, some of which had obvious sniffles or other cold like symptoms.

The Skeptics Guide to the Universe podcast is on my short list of podcasts I listen too when I am running errands.  Regulars include a pair of doctors and a few science geeks.  They tare into current bullshit fads with evidence based information.

Covid Mortality vs the Flu

I was asked if Covid mortality rates had hit flu levels yet?  The answer then was I wasn't sure, so off to Google land. 

I found this article analyzing databases provided by the Veterans Administration (VA) for the time period between 10/22 and 1/23.  Mainly the Omicron variant, which is far less lethal, but more virulent than the original Covid Variants.

Short form.  If hospitalized, the fatality rate for Covid was 6%, Flu was 3.75%.  In the pre-vaccine days of Covid, the fatality rate was around 20% of hospitalized cases.  Flu was 3.8%, and so largely unchanged.

In addition, there were 9,000 hospitalizations for Covid, 2400 for Flu.

You could multiply that out and make a case that Covid is still 6 times deadlier than Flu.  Or just note that the number hospitalized for Covid was more than triple that of Flu, during the height of Flu season.  

Note: The peak hospitalization during this period of time for Covid nationwide was 44,000 in a week.  Vice 12,600 two weeks ago.  Flu hospitalizations peaked at 26,000 for the week of Dec 12.  

Currently the number of weekly Flu hospitalizations in the USA is around 675.

Since this study was based on VA data, the study group was from older and predominantly male population.






Monday, August 14, 2023

Waterloo Redeux, 208 years later

A Headless Body Production

Venue: An Undisclosed Basement
Event: Waterloo
Players: Phil Gardocki running 4th Division, 1st Corps
+ 15 others
Game System: Fire and Fury adapted for Napoleonic era.

This battle report will not have a lot of the standardization of my other reports. I did not intend to write one, and so I did not take all the pictures required to fill out the details. A normal game would have for each turn, a picture of left, center and right, with the units described and movement detailed. Then the bottom half of the turn, and 3 more pictures. On a game of 7 turns, including deployment, that is around 48 pictures. For this, I took a total of 21, but mostly just the center area where my brave Frenchmen struggled against the combined British and Dutch forces.

The Forces:
French: 4 Division, commanded by Pierre Francois Joseph Durutte.
2 Brigades, Regulars, each with 5 stands of infantry, and a battery of light guns.
1st Light Cavalry Division, commanded by Baron Jacquinot
2 Brigades of Elite Hussards or Lancers and a Company of horse guns.

British/Dutch.

Who is to say? There were a lot of foot, at least 40 stands. Mostly conscripts, some elites. Supported by 3 batteries of artillery, 8 stands of horse.

Another problem with standard presentation is the board was big. 16 feet by 6 feet. So no photograph can do it justice. Normally I shrink the pictures down to 1280x1024. The main reason is so the page loads more quickly. 4032x3024 pixels is 5 megabytes, while the 1280x1024 is 350 kilobytes. When you have 50 pictures on a page, it takes a lot more time to load. 250 megabytes vs 17.

But for this one, I am letting the full size ride with the page. That way you can take advantage of your monitors resolution and see the fine details not necessary when viewing 10 elements of the L' Art de la Guerre battle field.

The battle field from the west. the Al had this table top sheet special made for the game.
Picture taken from the East.

The French are going for a double envelopment. The first reason was to do something different than historical. The second reason was to give as many players as possible a chance to be the "Spearpoint".  There are so many of us, it seemed only fair, that win, lose or draw, that we all get to actively attack.

As one player commented, it doesn't matter what the plan is.  Each player is going to do what he wants anyway.  Probably true to life.  I know one tank company commander that was told, "Once the battle starts, the only decision a commander can make is when to commit his reserves."

 

French side of the board.  On the left, the 2nd Corps has formed the "Grand Battery."  On the right is 1st Corps.
 

Not much to see here.  The Grand Battery is just right of center.  6th Corps is off frame on the left.  6th Corps is our major attack force, and will give Chateaux Hougoumnont a wide berth. 
 

Wellington's forces seemed well deployed to receive the attack.

The Young and Old Guard are deployed to the rear of the Grand Battery.  To attack after the bombardment.
 

11am, the march begins.
 

Historically, it was raining in the morning, so the battle got a late start.  For the first two turns, 11:00 and 11:30, the ground has mud affecting the movement. 

Ironically, the building was getting power washed. Water would sometimes penetrate the interior through the storm doors and windows.

My 4th division is near the center.  On the right are our cavalry commands.
 

11:30, the view from the west, 6th Corps is in march column.
 

An attempt at a panoramic shot. 
 

12:00 turn.  The view from the east.  The French Cavalry has begun to turn the Allied flank.
 

1pm.  Both game time and real.  My 4th division spent a turn behind a ridge line in preparation for the assault.  Then my foot troops all marched full to be within charge reach of 3 batteries of enemy guns, my lancers within a minimum distance of what turned out to be newly trained troops, and my artillery unlimbers at the top of the ridge.
 

My thought was to do my best to take out the Allied artillery first.  Then use my batteries to harass their line.  The job of my division is to just occupy Allied troops until our pincer moves hit.  

I gave their whole lot of targets, so that my artillery on the ridge line was not a priority for them.

I did not know that most of what I was facing was "Conscripts."

 

Major luck here.  The Allied artillery each rolled 1's, and had no effect.  My foot charged up the hill, capturing 2 batteries, routing the third, then pursued into the Allied foot.  It was Regulars vs Conscripts, and two Allied Brigades fled the field.
 

By major luck, the Allies rolled mostly 1's and 2's, and a single 7 on a 10 side die.  My troops rolled two 10's, a 9, a 7 and a 1.

The French 4th Division has blown a hole through the allied line 14 element wide and hold the ridge.  But the reality is the Allied forces still outnumber mine by about 3-1, and the follow-on attack by the rest of the 1st Corps was delayed.
 

My co-commander was using the wrong movement rate for his troops, so they were advancing only 6 inches a turn, while mine were moving 9.

Dismayed, but not broken, the allies mass their divisions for a bit of musketry, then charge.  The 4th divisions brigades are thrown back disordered.
 

 The expanded view has a squiggly line delineating the sides.

On the left, the rest of the 1st Corps is going to take their turn to charge.
 

Up the ridge they charge.  Causing an allied brigade to flee, capturing a couple of batteries.  Then a pursuit into yet another allied brigade, which retreated.
 

On the left, the 2nd Corps  attacked after many turns of bombarding with the Grand Battery. One allied unit fled under the bombardment, but another stood and sent the French packing.  

Off screen, left, the 6th Corps has arrived to its targets and is about to start it's assault.  Wellington's troops were well deployed to receive them, but over the hours, had units redeployed to deal with 2nd Corps attack.  

Off screen right, massive cavalry battles raged, mostly in favor of the French.  

About 4pm, both game time and real, the Prussians arrived.  

But Allied forces held a conference, and decided not to play it out.  The Prussians were too far away, and the French Cavalry on that flank was pursuing faster than the Prussians could march.  

My 4th Division was thrown off the ridge, it's brigades now rated as "Spent", were resting in the valley, with 3 batteries protecting them from any attack.  The rest of the 1st Corps, was still in attack mode, and widened the hole in the center to about 16 elements.