The 2020 Election Lies You May Have Heard
Lies, Damn Lies, and Statistics
OK, this a statistic and not strictly a lie. A Texas lawsuit brought to the Supreme Court, had, as it's evidence, a statistical analysis that the Presidential election results were impossible, by a factor of quadrillion to the 4th power, to 1. This conclusion was drawn up by Charles Cicchett, Ph.D. an economist.
His math is based on the statistical sample of the electorate at 3am on Nov 4, and if applied to the remaining ballots, then the odds of drawing out enough votes from what were left to counter Trumps lead is 1 x 10 to the 72nd power. A higher number than we have prefixes to describe.
And if the remaining (mail in) ballots were the same percentages as the "day of" ballots, he would have been right. But they were not. In Pennsylvania, those ballots broke 3-1 in favor of Biden. See my article The Pennsylvania Million Vote Dump.
The reasons for this were obvious and expected. The candidates followers have personality types. The Trump led by example and flagrantly ignored, claiming to be fearless, and even belittled the precautions advised for protection of all involved and his followers followed suit and insisted on voting in person on election day.
Biden also led by example, he kept himself isolated, and wore a mask in public. And his supporters voted by mail. As I mentioned, in Pennsylvania, by 3-1.
So that is where Dr Cicchett made his mistake with the math. His remaining bag of ballots were not the same mixture as the ballots cast on election day.
But that didn't stop the Texas Attorney General, Ken Paxton, from running with it. This was the core argument for a case brought to the Supreme Court. Based on the probability that Biden could not do better than Hilary 4 years ago. Not a legal argument, but one steeped in flawed statistics being taken to the highest court in the land. They threw it out, quickly, on a vote of 7-2.
As a side note, where did the votes come from?
The short answer is the Millennials.
The Baby Boomers voted Trump over Biden by around 52-48 percent. And so Trump came out of that group with a few million lead, but basically, the Boomers canceled each other out.
The Baby Bust generation voted Biden over Trump, about 55-45, and that chiseled about a million votes off of Trumps lead.
The Millennials out number the Baby Boomers, and are just coming on line politically. 48 million were eligible to vote, 24 million did, and they broke 16-8 million, Biden over Trump. Giving Biden a 7 million vote lead in that group, for the win.
Simple math.
Other Lies you may have heard:
Pennsylvania's Million Vote Dump
Nationwide More Ballots Than Voters
Poll Worker Changing Votes Video
Lies, Damn Lies and Statistics
Votes Changed in Frankfort Germany
PA County with More Ballots Than Voters
No comments:
Post a Comment