Coronavirus, the Ides of March (ish) Edition

Coronavirus, the Ides of March Edition
By the Numbers

There are many of these missives that I start the same day as I publish the last, because, things happen.

Then there are others where I go almost two weeks because there is nothing interesting to report.  So far the only interesting C-19 news is with sports.

Then there is the announcement that the Texas Rangers will open to a full stadium, but require masks. I am not a screamer about all things C-19, and when I think of the math, this is not so bad.

My current estimates of those with C-19 in Texas is about 128,000.  About .0045%.  So a full stadium of 40,000 would have 175 infected members.  Probably less, because if you are really sick, you are not going to the game anyway, so call it 150.  The spread rate “out of doors” vice “in doors” rate has never been quantified.  There are studies from China that put it extremely low, but anything from China is suspect.  But overall with factors like evaporation, a lot more air, and ultraviolet, the spread out of doors is much lower.

Indoors on average, 1 person can spread it to 4 others.  That is the factor that made this virus a threat.  Out doors?  Could be 10x less.  If we go with that, then 150 will spread to 60 which will take it home for may be 240 more.  But masking is going to be required for this event, so that will keep awareness up and reduce the spread by another 10x, so 150 spread to 6.  At that point we are in the statistical weeds.  There will be other collateral increases caused by the event, as a fair number of people go to the bars to watch the game.  Outside the stadium the Phillies play in there is an eating/drinking complex that is absolutely packed after the 7th inning of people leaving early to avoid the rush, but have one more for the road.  Some spread, but not “the sky is falling” super spreader event.

This is not the same as the Sturgis motorcycle rally back in November which was a super spreader event.  The open air interactions caused a few cases to be sure, but the rally ran for 10 days of nightly indoor interactions as well.  260,000 cases were attributed to that rally.

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The number of active cases continues to improve.  To just over 50,000 new cases daily.  I estimate that we dropped below 1.5 million active cases on Sunday.  About the same number of cases as around Oct 13.  

The mortality numbers are finally dropping to about 1,400 per day, down from a peak of over 4,000.  I earlier calculated that the mortality rate, if you catch C-19 today, was actually higher than previous months, and had no valid reason to explain it.  It turns out I was wrong due to an Apples to Oranges comparison.   
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Tim Porter, aka the MadAxeMan, pointed out to me the error in my calculations, using a current set of active case numbers against a lagging indicator of deaths.  So the deaths have a disproportionate effect when the active cases are dropping, as well as when the numbers are climbing.  We saw this in the spring when the number of cases grew, sometimes 40% per day, and the mortality rate dropped dramatically from 25% initially to around 8% by late spring.  

There were other effects in play then, not enough testing for one.  Improper handling of the elderly another.  

So to be clear, there was never a bump in the mortality rate.  It was my calculation error. If anything, it went down due to the most vulnerable group getting vaccinated.

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Which segways to my personal news.  I had my first VA visit on Monday, where I found out that they had just lowered their age requirement to 55.  I called on Tuesday, and got my first shot (Moderna) on Wed.  It was the most efficient vaccination operation I have seen since boot camp (80 men, 640 shots, 10 minutes).  From arrival on a square mile campus in Coatesville, PA to departure, 45 minutes.  Signage was excellent, interacted with 7 personnel.  15 minutes was waiting after the shot to monitor for anaphylactic shock.  

I never felt the needle.  At + 7 hours the injected shoulder began to ache.  At + 15 hours developed light fever which lasted about 3 hours.  2 days later the shoulder is still tender to the touch, but that is all.  Your results may vary
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Texas removed all C-19 restrictions on May 2nd.  So it is still too early into the Texas Experiment to tell how their restriction removal will go.  But Pennsylvania plans on going up to 75% open in two weeks, Which in practice is actually full open.  Who is going to count the difference between a full occupancy and 75%?

I am doing a separate calculation for Texas, because science is about writing things down, otherwise you are just mucking about.

Wk Ending In:    Average Daily New Cases for the week
1/11/2021         22927
1/18/2021         20734
1/25/2021         18815
2/1/2021          18267
2/8/2021          12487
2/15/2021          9410
2/22/2021          5012
3/1/2021           7113  <<week of restriction removal
3/8/2021           5413
3/15/2021          4437