Coronavirus, the Mid May Edition

Coronavirus, the Mid May Edition

By the Numbers

The calculated number of active cases continues to drop. As of May 6th, the number of active cases was the new nationwide low for the year.  The last was on Mar 22 before the "4th", and hopefully last, surge, which was an estimated 1,347,000 afflicted. 

 

I do a calculation based on adding up the previous 3 weeks of new cases, and then multiplying by 1.06 for the estimated long term cases. This is because the various medical systems do not keep good track of the number of recovered individuals, and is why the CDC reports about 7,000,000 cases. They can only report the data they have.

As of May 12th, the estimated number of active cases was at 1,144,000 and falling rapidly.  The number of new cases was less than half the high of the last surge.

My estimated numbers may be off by as much as 20% from reality, and I suspect with better treatments they are, but I am going to ride them out till the end for consistencies sake. Keeping the comparisons "Apples to Apples".

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Even fully vaccinated people need to take care, especially if you are in the high risk category, which almost all of my readers are. (because that is my target group) Enough fully vaccinated people have now died of C-19 to have a reasonably accurate numbers.

The good news is that among the over 110 million fully vaccinated Americans, that the efficacy of the vaccines seems higher than the test groups of last year. In excess of 99% vice of 95%.  But I have suspicions about that.

For those that do catch the virus, the symptoms are much mitigated. More “asymptomatic”, shorter hospital stays, less severity. And most importantly a shorter time of being infectious.

But there are still fatalities. The numbers reported by the CDC is .008% has become infected, and of them, 1% has died. So the odds are 1 in 1,250,000. See the article  here.

I suspect however, that the 99% efficacy number for the fully vaccinated is not accurate. In the case described in the article above, the victim became ill, but was not tested for C-19, because he was vaccinated, and so, was misdiagnosed. He may have been saved otherwise. I suspect the 95% for the testing groups last year is closer to the truth.

Also, I believe that “It can’t be C-19, I’m vaccinated”, is probably a typical mindset.

So keep following the guidelines. Avoidance is still the best tool. Until the number of active cases is low enough that you are unlikely to be exposed in a group.

AND, IF YOU HAVE ANY OF THE SYMPTOMS, GET CHECKED. What bothers me about the numbers is the fatality rate for the vaccinated that catch C-19 is about the same as unvaccinated at 1%.

As of 4/20, 75 million vaccinated, 6,000 fully vaccinated were infected (<.1%) .  Of them, 400 were  hospitalized (<10% of 6,000), 74 died. (>1% 6,000).


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Interesting factoid on how pernicious this virus is. The Seychelles, an island in the Indian Ocean, with a population of 98,000, has vaccinated 62% of its population, the highest rate in the world. But still has had an outbreak in the last few weeks. On April 28, they had 612 active cases, and 6 days later the number grew to 1,068. Forcing them to go back into lock-down.

That is about 1.5% of the unvaccinated population catching the virus in under a week. The main explanation is relaxed restrictions in anticipation of the tourist crowd.

It gives us a perspective of where "Herd Immunity" is. It was hoped that 70% would be enough, but this Seychelles "experiment" belies that.

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Another study has demonstrated that if you have had C-19 previously, then only one of the two-shot vaccines is necessary to get your system up to snuff.

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In it's latest guidelines, the CDC announced that “less than 10 percent” of Covid-19 transmission had occurred outdoors.  Other virologists state that while true, the number is really < 1%.  And those cases were crowds or close conversations.  So enjoy the out doors worry free.

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Since my spread sheet macros are still tracking Texas vs Pennsylvania. Here are the weekly averages up till now. Texas removed all restrictions on Mar 3, PA went to 25% restrictions (??) in Mid April, and plans to remove all restrictions on May 31.

This is an odd decision for PA. On Mar 3, only 3 counties were in the "Red" zone. But with the 4th surge, on April 29, all but 3 counties were back in the "Red" Zone. Counties that are in red zones have more than 100 new cases per 100,000 residents, per week.

Pennsylvania's population is 40% that of Texas, so this means Pennsylvania is more than twice as infected as Texas.

WeekEnding In        Texas       PA
12/7/2020            14,175    9,348
12/14/2020           14,412   10,493
12/21/2020           16,467    9,078
12/28/2020           13,270    7,669
1/4/2021             16,891    7,337
1/11/2021            22,927    8,732
1/18/2021            20,734    6,366
1/25/2021            18,815    5,305
2/1/2021             18,267    5,969
2/8/2021             12,487    3,895
2/15/2021             9,410    3,226
2/22/2021             5,012    2,681
3/1/2021              7,113    2,614
3/8/2021              5,413    2,487
3/15/2021             4,437    2,492
3/22/2021             3,647    2,976
3/29/2021             3,443    4,019
4/5/2021              2,816    4,063
4/12/2021             3,467    4,336
4/19/2021             3,013    4,782
4/26/2021             3,095    3,821
5/3/2021              3,106    3,190
5/10/2021             2,200    2,299