Coronavirus, the Mid July Edition

 Coronavirus, the Mid July Edition

       By the Numbers 

There is only one piece of news worth noting.  The Delta Variant of Covid has taken root in the largely unvaccinated portions of the country.

The rapid retreat of Covid due to vaccinations and social distancing was nothing short of a miracle of medical science.  From a peak of over 301,000 new cases a day on Jan 8, to an average of 12,200 per day for all of June.  And with that drop, states have been rescinding all the rules.  In Pennsylvania there was the caveat you can go mask-less if you are vaccinated.  But everyone was going mask-less, vaccinated or not.  

The unvaccinated are relying on the the vaccinated to keep them safe.  They are wrong to do so.  On July 16th, the new case count was 36,700, tripling last weeks daily count and accelerating.  In PA, the average was down to 140 per day, was now over 500 on Thursday.  In the same time period, Texas was 1,200 per day, and was 3,600. 

About 49% of the population is fully vaccinated, and some percentage partially so.  Not enough to put the brakes on Covid.  States are closing down their vaccination sites due to a lack of interest.  From a couple of million doses a day to 400,000 or so nation wide.  

Back in May, I reported what happened in the Seychelles Islands.  This is as close to a controlled experiment as you can get with humans.  Totally isolated, with a population of 98,000, 62% vaccinated.  They removed restrictions and within 6 days had a 1,068 new cases among the unvaccinated.  In the USA, this would be like 320,000.  

And now the USA has replicated the Seychelles Experiment.  Science! 

The Reproductive number, which is the evaluation of how many people an infected person will infect normally, for flu is 2, for Covid Alpha, it was 4, for Delta it is a 5.  Delta became the dominant variant in the USA this month.  

Delta is more infectious, and by some accounts more lethal.  I have seen headlines of people dying faster.  But I have also seen evaluations that it is not more lethal.  So the jury is still out. 

But if you have been vaccinated, your concerns are minimal.  It works just fine against Delta. In May only 150, or .8%, of the Covid deaths were among the vaccinated.  Not hitting the top 12 causes of death.  For the unvaccinated, 18,000 deaths, which puts Covid at #3 over accidents, (13,400 per month in 2017).

If you account for the concentration effect, that those deaths are going to occur in a sub set of the population, would be 36,000 equivalency for the month, which does not reach #2 spot of Cancer at 50,000 per month.  

I am just trying to put the numbers in perspective. 

If you are vaccinated, don't worry about it.  Enjoy life.

If not, WTF is wrong with you?

Covid deaths are now preventable.

A cartoon from the 30's.  History repeats.