Coronavirus, the Mid August Edition 2

 Coronavirus, the Mid August Edition

       By the Numbers 

Often these missives start immediately after publishing the last, and numbers edited and new articles added over time.  This one was no exception.  However there has been so much news on the Covid front that the the overall theme and cadence of its unpublished predecessor is no longer supporting the ad Hominem like alterations.  So first, back to the basics.

On Wed., Aug 11th, we had 144,635 new cases, for an estimated total of 1,690,000 active cases.  The nationwide growth rate is averaging 38% increase for the week, the week before was 37%, and the week before was around 21%.  The last time we had that many new cases, and growing, was November 11th, 2020.  One major difference is then, the weekly growth rate was 5% per week.

There is no sugar coating this, it's horrible.    In June, the average was 12,500 new cases a day, and an active case estimate of 270,000. 

So what went wrong?  Most of  country opened up before the vaccination plans were completed.  Vaccinated people celebrated and went on their lives, while the unvaccinated decided they were safe by virtue of of the arms of the vaccinated.  I'm being kind here.  I have seen their "echo chambers", and I lack the words to describe it.

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If you are Immunocompromised, then soon, a Covid "booster" shot will be available for you.  Dr. Fauci announced on 8/5 that approval for the boosters is in the works.

Priorities will be for the Immunocompromised and health care workers.  Among the 5,000+ known "breakthrough" cases, 44% are  with Immunocompromised people.  

Take a note on those numbers.  So far, there are only 5,000(ish) known "Breakthrough" cases, out of 3 million since May.  Those would be cases where the symptoms were severe enough that the person sought treatment.  Surely there are more, but they never reached the level of needing to seek help.  If you just look at the headlines you would think every other case was a breakthrough.

And the headlines will imply booster shots will be required for everyone.  So far, for the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines, the 6 month measurements show about only a 3% degradation in efficacy.  The articles regarding the J&J, is across the board in the 6 month efficacy tests.  Some say it increases in efficacy, others report a steep drop.  So a booster there may be in order there.  

There is a study being publish in Yale's Axios that puts the degradation in effectiveness much lower for Pfizer Moderna, especially against the Delta variant.  But that study has not yet been peer reviewed and contradicts other studies.  Stay tuned.

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Last month I reported the numbers posted by the CDC about "breakthrough" infections of fully vaccinated people in May.  They were small, totaling around 5,000 cases, constituting .15% of the hospitalizations and .8% of the deaths associated with Covid. 

The numbers were so small, the CDC decide to discontinue counting them.  That decision has been called into question and served as propaganda fodder for the refusenicks.  However, many states have continued counting and the problem of "breakthroughs" is growing and accelerating.  It is the states that do the actual counting anyway, the CDC is just accruing data sent by the states.  But without a single source, we have to go with a number of sources/articles/reports.

First, let me say, if you are vaccinated, the news is not as bad as the refusenick propaganda would have you believe.  Here are some numbers:

In Israel a 14 week study followed 1,500 healthcare workers looking for breakthrough cases. 39 became infected or 2.6%.  67% had mild symptoms, 33% were asymptomatic.  None were hospitalized.

See: https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2021/07/israeli-study-finds-26-covid-breakthrough-infection-rate

Cape Cod had a super spreader event in July.  469 cases of Covid, 346 were fully vaccinated.  Of the 346, about 1/3 was Delta, 1/3 Alpha, 1/3 unknown.  5 were hospitalized, none died.  Also noted in the article is that the source is the CDC, so they seem back in the game on counting breakthroughs.

See:  https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7031e2.htm

Iceland is having a surge of Covid, despite being one of the most vaccinated countries in the world (96% at least partial) The counts are small by US Standards, from the 10's in June and July to about 100 cases a day in August.  But no deaths since May.

See: https://qz.com/2044284/icelands-rising-covid-19-cases-demonstrate-vaccine-efficacy/

The example of the fleeing Texas legislature.   All vaccinated, 1 had it, 5 more got it.  2 had symptoms.

My wife's company's upper staff, all vaccinated.  5 caught it, 2 had mild symptoms.

The spread of the virus in the US has been described as a "Pandemic of the unvaccinated"  And in hospitals around the country the doctors will say it is true.  I have read 3 or 4 articles, which I did not log, from hospitals in Los Angeles, Georgia and Texas where the hospitalized are described as 95+% unvaccinated. And this seems to still be true.

This is all evidence that the vaccine is protecting its patients, and very well, but it is also clear that the vaccinated are getting and spreading Covid, we are just not paying the ultimate price for it.

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The fear of Covid seems to have hit some of the refusenicks.  Vaccinations have been up for a couple of weeks.  Almost 800,000 a day from a low of 400,000.  The peak was about 3.5 million a day.  

There is no clear vector to follow here.  The groups are clusters and not homogeneous within a cluster.  

As the unvaccinated are disproportionately feeling this 5th surge of the virus, by almost 2-1, so to will the effects of getting more vaccinated improve the situation with those groups.  

By that I mean, as an example if there are 102,000 new cases in the USA, it will feel like 204,000 if you are in the unvaccinated clusters.  Last year there were only 23 worse days than yesterday.  So in those areas, it is going to get much worse. 

Even in Pennsylvania, after hovering at 140 new cases a day throughout June, yesterday was over 2,000, last week the growth of it concentrated in 6 counties.  This week, 50 out of 67 counties had reported over 40% growth. In New Jersey, just one county has half the new cases. 

This is not a tragedy.  Tragedies are accidental and just happen.  This is an Atrocity!  A man made event.

Once again the Disinformation Dozen are in the news as they are a main source of antivax hysteria.  A later study has shown that since April, 73% of social media misinformation on vaccines derives from one of these 12 people.

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The refusenicks have been fed the lie that this surge is due to undocumented immigrants being flown around the country.  At first it was 200,000 of them.  But as that number is not sufficiently scary  sounding, so now it's 2 million.   Meanwhile they deliberately reduce the numbers of refusenicks for statistical purposes to validate their world view.  One claimed only 18% (54 million) of "US Citizens" remain unvaccinated.  My calculations put it closer to 100 million.  48 million under 12 and can't, 46 million and won't, and about 6 million that are just late to the party.

And to over sell this lie, they claim that due to this immigrant surge, measles, mumps and whooping cough are also surging. Another lie they are being fed.  And its easily disproved. I looked them all up and none of them are surging, actually they are at an all time low.  Measles is at 2 (not 2 thousand, not 2 hundred, just 2) this year, down from over a 1,000 in 2017, and then that was mostly in American Samoa thanks again to the Disinformation Dozen.  Mumps are down also in the US, from about 3,500 cases around 2016 just 52 this year.  But a quick google will not show that, because mumps is increasing in the UK, and that is bubbling to the top of the results.  You also have to dig deeper for Whooping Cough, because of Finland's current outbreak is driving those articles to the top as well.

On Aug 5, Dr Fauci also counts the number of eligible but unvaccinated Americans at 100 million.  It's nice to get validation.  

So blaming 200 thousand or even 2 million immigrants for this surge is patently ridiculous.  Its an attempt to distract the conversation from the real problem.

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We hit 70% partially or fully vaccinated on July 28.  Which means we are now tracking to 70% fully vaccinated by Aug 28, partially vaccinated  around  77% the same date.  

70% has been bandied about as the herd immunity level, but that was always just a hopeful wish.  There is no fixed number, and immunologists regard herd immunity as between 70 and 80%.  So 70% was always on the low end.  And if you are talking Flu, with an R rating of 1.8, that is a lower case 'ok', and still kills 10's of thousands a year.  

But Delta's R rating of 5?  No one knows.  I'll throw a dart and say 85% (281 million) vaccinated is going to be required.