Coronavirus, the Late September Edition

 Coronavirus, the Late September Edition

By the Numbers

The Numbers 

Nationwide, the numbers continue to oscillate around 3 million active cases. Almost all the states are in decline,

Sending the kids to school seems to be a major factor. In Pennsylvania, 30% of the new cases, some 20,000 of the 70,000 new cases in the last two weeks, are school age children.

San Francisco seems to be doing a good job on tracking sources of infection, and identified that the vast majority of school age infections were acquired in the home, not at the school.

Booster shots

The information on booster shots changes daily. Currently the CDC is recommending booster shots for "at risk" people whose last vaccination was 8 months ago. The reported decline in efficacy of the vaccines is still wildly varied. But even the lowest numbers, about 65%, are above what immunologists would consider effective. 

Ethicists are complaining, and rightly so, if Americans don't want the vaccine, then ship it to locations around the world that need it. Let none go to waste. The logistics of shipping the mRNA virus is daunting as they require a very cold environment, but doable. It would be a great photo op to have thousands of Nigerians lining up at the air plane for their shots. We could tell the Refusenicks the Nigerians are getting their shots. 

Refusenick Hell

I have tried to avoid talking about the death counts in my missives. My goal is not to induce fear, but provide context through the numbers. But sometimes, the death count is what is required to make the point. 

How badly is the current Covid surge affecting the refuseniks of the vaccine? At the peak of the pandemic, the 15 weeks from November 2020 to February 2021, 286,000 Americans died of Covid out of an adult population of 255 million*, or about 1,122 out of every million. 

During the 15 weeks from June to September 11, 75,000 died of Covid. The CDC places this loss as 85% unvaccinated so the number of the unvaccinated that have died is 63,900. Every hospital graph I have seen puts this at 95%+**, and I have seen dozens of them by now, but I have to assume the CDC did a better job of looking at all hospitals, and not just the ones promoting their beds dedicated to Covid. So I'll use their lower number.

The number of unvaccinated adults from June-Sept is around 97 million. This puts the death count per million at 736 per million. In the same time frame the death count for the vaccinated is 71 per million. 

And this does not consider the long term debilitating effects of the virus settling into your vascular system. This seems to effect about 32% of all the moderate to serious cases of Covid. Assuming the serious cases are all hospitalized and that number is closed to 3 million, almost 700,000 died, giving us around 730,000 with various "Long Hauler" effects.

So it is the concentration of Covid that is the major problem. This is nothing we didn't already know. But even in those areas, Covid is not spreading as badly as it did at it's peak last winter. Even in the refusenik strongholds about 40% are vaccinated, and that seems to have mitigated the disaster that has fallen on them. It's just those areas tend to be much poorer and less able to deal with a reduced version of this plague. 

*I know children are catching Delta now, but they are still a small percentage of the serious cases. Feel free to distort my numbers a couple of percentage points to account for them.

**DC reports their breakthrough rate at .72%, PA at 6%, NJ at .002%. A very wide range.

Which States are still growing, and which are declining.

The graph below is the counts of NEW cases for each state and protectorate for the last 4 weeks. 

2 states and the Navajo nation are still showing an increase from last week. the rest are reporting a decline. 10 have a less than 10% decline, the rest more so.

27 states and protectorates still have more new cases this week than 4 weeks ago.

Looks like my prediction of a sharp drop in September was bogus. 

State	8/25 to 8/31	9/1 to 9/7	9/8 to 9/14	9/15 to 9/21	4 weeks change	Last week change
Alabama	7,805	11,695	11,765	6,923	89%	59%
Alaska	2,499	3,039	4,679	4,307	172%	92%
Arizona	22,387	21,730	21,129	16,919	76%	80%
Arkansas	14,023	15,050	13,795	9,191	66%	67%
California	82,920	85,150	74,143	54,379	66%	73%
Colorado	8,271	12,020	12,492	8,672	105%	69%
Connecticut	4,659	3,872	4,985	5,418	116%	109%
Delaware	2,159	3,098	3,332	3,245	150%	97%
DistrictOfColumbia	1,355	991	1,871	1,402	103%	75%
FederalPrisons	7,797	7,703	7,991	5,417	69%	68%
Florida	130,389	86,716	82,082	49,333	38%	60%
Georgia	47,404	47,389	48,877	27,390	58%	56%
Guam	5,483	4,231	3,012	2,010	37%	67%
Hawaii	6,279	5,815	4,504	3,246	52%	72%
Idaho	5,189	6,406	10,222	7,888	152%	77%
Illinois	18,818	22,841	27,389	15,963	85%	58%
Indiana	21,067	21,312	27,941	17,022	81%	61%
Iowa	559	1,918	734	437	78%	60%
Kansas	4,534	4,074	7,051	5,314	117%	75%
Kentucky	22,206	22,319	29,798	20,077	90%	67%
Louisiana	18,992	8,583	17,813	8,597	45%	48%
Maine	1,722	2,690	3,884	3,264	190%	84%
MarianaIslands	867	1,000	1,402	944	109%	67%
Maryland	8,031	8,932	9,073	8,621	107%	95%
Massachusetts	8,075	8,912	13,665	9,248	115%	68%
Michigan	6,754	7,037	13,710	13,280	197%	97%
Minnesota	10,872	10,361	15,867	15,686	144%	99%
Mississippi	16,799	13,883	15,150	10,555	63%	70%
Missouri	16,802	16,625	18,936	13,934	83%	74%
Montana	3,374	3,758	6,684	6,552	194%	98%
NavajoNation	142	151	109	127	89%	117%
Nebraska	3,934	3,117	4,607	3,244	82%	70%
Nevada	5,726	6,036	8,487	5,534	97%	65%
NewHampshire	1,436	1,239	2,465	1,580	110%	64%
NewJersey	13,908	14,955	18,571	15,419	111%	83%
NewMexico	4,303	4,230	4,604	3,143	73%	68%
NewYork	29,912	36,878	42,310	37,892	127%	90%
NorthCarolina	32,047	33,214	41,509	29,736	93%	72%
NorthDakota	2,062	2,986	4,084	3,153	153%	77%
Ohio	31,225	47,032	57,247	46,633	149%	81%
Oklahoma	17,280	12,660	16,764	9,952	58%	59%
Oregon	11,945	11,119	13,790	8,858	74%	64%
Pennsylvania	22,757	27,602	34,542	32,415	142%	94%
PuertoRico	210	223	248	248	118%	100%
RhodeIsland	1,557	1,509	2,543	1,843	118%	72%
SouthCarolina	22,981	25,450	30,040	17,973	78%	60%
SouthDakota	2,613	2,389	2,969	2,385	91%	80%
Tennessee	25,980	42,424	42,194	19,165	74%	45%
Texas	104,973	121,365	141,900	79,116	75%	56%
USATotalNotincludedintotals	909,368	941,555	1,090,958	753,411	83%	69%
USMilitary	2,572	2,183	4,540	2,001	78%	44%
Utah	6,103	6,931	11,428	7,448	122%	65%
Vermont	912	1,281	1,259	1,391	153%	110%
Virginia	19,319	23,199	29,887	21,523	111%	72%
Washington	17,676	18,907	24,838	14,822	84%	60%
WestVirginia	5,787	10,007	14,676	12,707	220%	87%
Wisconsin	10,478	11,778	16,640	16,339	156%	98%
Wyoming	3,194	3,095	4,402	3,266	102%	74%

Coronavirus, the Early September Edition

Coronavirus, the Early September Edition

By the Numbers

The Numbers 

Nationwide, we seem to have hit peak, and the number of new cases is now in a slight decline.  The last 4 days are showing about 2% fewer new cases than the week before.  The estimated total of active cases is over 3 million.  However, there is a 3 day holiday in the totals, and that tends to reduce the number of cases as it screws up the reporting.  But even the Thursday number, 160,748, is less than last Thursdays of 182,593.  So the decline seems real.

Nationwide, the estimated number of active cases continues to hold at just above 3 million.  Where it has been since 9/1/2021. 

Why is no one is dying of Covid in Florida anymore?

Florida changed how they report Covid death counts.  From the date the death certificate is processed, to the date of the actual death.  Because of this, if you were to graph Florida's deaths, it will now always look liked it peaked a few days back, and is now in decline.  When in fact, with Florida, the number of deaths is increasing commensurate with their disproportionate number of active cases.  Florida has 16% the number of cases in the nation, apportioned to 6.5% of the population.

But there is another subtle change in the day to day statistics.  If you look at Florida's numbers today, or yesterday, there are zero deaths.  So someone looking at the charts would think Florida is doing a good job as no one has died.  Their count of total deaths continues to go up, it is just not graphed.  See this web site.

 

An example Wednesdays numbers vs Thursdays.  Florida logged in 9 new deaths, but their total deaths went from 46,942 to  48,273.  +1,331!

Mu

The variant known as Mu, mutated in existence in Columbia, where it is the dominant variant.  The press is saying much about Mu, while knowing very little.  I have notice the word "could" used a lot.  Could be vaccine evading, could be more infectious.   The short answer is We... Don't... Know...

First on vaccine evasion.  This is just a fear mongering press trying to get head lines.  We... Don't... Know...  Mu mutated in Columbia in Jan, 2021, so it is impossible that it mutated in response to the current vaccines.

Mu has been identified in every state save Nebraska.  In each area, it represents less than 1% of the total cases.  Far less.  For example, in California, 380 cases have been identified, as opposed to an estimated 254,000 active cases, or .15% the total.

My thoughts are that if Mu was more infectious/deadlier/vaccine evading, it would be more prominent than that.    With a press corps tired of reporting about Covid, this is just something new to write up.

An example from the NY Daily News on press prevarication, "The U.S. saw its peak of Mu variant cases in mid-July but case numbers involving that variant have been declining since, signaling either a weakening of the strain or indicating a worrisome future."

Ivermectin 

The anti-parasitic drug Ivermectin has captured the imagination of meme developers everywhere.  Here is what we know.  Ivermectin and HCQ have both been looked into extensively as a treatment for Covid.  Both have been suggested in looking for a reason the Covid has not cut a swath through equatorial Africa.  Both drugs are in heavy use there for treating the various parasites in that region.

Ivermectin's supporters claim it has not been studied, and allude to pharmaceutical company conspiracies.  Anti-vaxers have latched onto it as an alternative to vaccines.

 

It has been studied.  At least 57 studies so far.  And only one study has shown efficacy.  The rest have not. 

 

The one study has been heavily downloaded and shared on the anti-vax boards.  The study as it was originally published, was not peer reviewed.  But that is part of the normal process.  We have a month or so now of medical researchers looking at the paper, and they have issues with methodology and record keeping.  Notably duplicate patient numbers and incomplete records of patients that showed positive effects vice those that did not.

 

The American Journal of Therapeutics, where they looked at many of these studies and posted their results here.   In their final evaluation, with the exception of just one category, all the "quality of evidence" ratings of these studies is rated "low" or "very low".  However, that one category is "death from any cause".  78 out of 1,000 for no ivermectin verses 48 per 1,000 for ivermectin.  A 61% improvement in death from any cause. So the Journal's conclusion reads:

 

"Moderate-certainty evidence finds that large reductions in COVID-19 deaths are possible using ivermectin. Using ivermectin early in the clinical course may reduce numbers progressing to severe disease. The apparent safety and low cost suggest that ivermectin is likely to have a significant impact on the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic globally."

Unfortunately, this has been taken to heart by the anti-vax refusenicks as meaning they do not need the vaccine. They are only told ivermectin is an effective treatment, and can be used as preventive medicine.  

 

And many are raiding veterinary supplies for non prescription ivermectin.  Unfortunately the recommended dosage's are in mcg per kg of the patient.  You know, metric, and you have to do math.  And it comes in pills and liquid.  People are getting it wrong and adding to the ER load.

Where the logic falls down is 61% improvement on outcomes with ivermectin is not as good as 17-1 (94.2%) benefit of the vaccine is currently (CDC Aug 13) showing at preventing hospitalizations, this number has Delta factored in, but may not be weighted properly, but I'll go with the experts.  If you want ivermectin after you get hospitalized, I have no problem with that, but also be aware, it is not just ivermectin, but there is no established treatment regimen yet in this country, or any western country.

Where there is a treatment regimen is in Brazil.  A cocktail of ivermectin, HCQ, anti-inflammatory drugs,  tetracycline, azithromycin, referred to as "early treatment". So we have a real world experiment on the value of this drug.  Brazil has a population 2/3rd's the US, and 584,000 deaths compared to the US's 666,000.

It's not an either or thing with ivermectin, except for the anti-vax refusenicks.  They have signs up declaring "We have ivermectin, you can keep your vaccine." 

 

States in decline

I missed this last surge was going to happen.  During all of June, the numbers averaged 11,600 new cases daily.  Down from a peak of 301,000 on Jan 8.   I was lulled into a sense that Covid was over.  The vaccine had won, and we could go about our lives.  I was contemplating the final edition of this missive.

 

Evidence of this surge was there in the numbers, and I missed it. The clue was the stabilization.  Which implies the bottom of the curve, when it should have continued to decline.  When you bottom out, you can only go up.  I didn't catch that, while some  states were in decline, others were increasing.  Concentrating in the Covid denial areas and growing.  

 

As of today, we do have the reverse situation happening.  Most states are in decline.  This is the list where Covid is still climbing:

Iowa            1,613 new cases last week, a 283% increase over the previous week.
Louisiana    11,977 new cases last week, a 150% increase over the previous week.
West Virginia 8,975 new cases last week, a 136% increase over the previous week.

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These states are still increasing but between 101 and 113% of the previous week.
Maine
Nebraska
Ohio
North Dakota
Puerto Rico
Pennsylvania
New York

The rest of the states, protectorates, military, and districts are in decline.

 

Though, Florida is in doubt, as their change in counting makes it seem like they are in serious decline, at 44% the previous week, but that is just statistical bull shit.