Coronavirus, the Early September Edition

Coronavirus, the Early September Edition

By the Numbers

The Numbers 

Nationwide, we seem to have hit peak, and the number of new cases is now in a slight decline.  The last 4 days are showing about 2% fewer new cases than the week before.  The estimated total of active cases is over 3 million.  However, there is a 3 day holiday in the totals, and that tends to reduce the number of cases as it screws up the reporting.  But even the Thursday number, 160,748, is less than last Thursdays of 182,593.  So the decline seems real.

Nationwide, the estimated number of active cases continues to hold at just above 3 million.  Where it has been since 9/1/2021. 

Why is no one is dying of Covid in Florida anymore?

Florida changed how they report Covid death counts.  From the date the death certificate is processed, to the date of the actual death.  Because of this, if you were to graph Florida's deaths, it will now always look liked it peaked a few days back, and is now in decline.  When in fact, with Florida, the number of deaths is increasing commensurate with their disproportionate number of active cases.  Florida has 16% the number of cases in the nation, apportioned to 6.5% of the population.

But there is another subtle change in the day to day statistics.  If you look at Florida's numbers today, or yesterday, there are zero deaths.  So someone looking at the charts would think Florida is doing a good job as no one has died.  Their count of total deaths continues to go up, it is just not graphed.  See this web site.

 

An example Wednesdays numbers vs Thursdays.  Florida logged in 9 new deaths, but their total deaths went from 46,942 to  48,273.  +1,331!

Mu

The variant known as Mu, mutated in existence in Columbia, where it is the dominant variant.  The press is saying much about Mu, while knowing very little.  I have notice the word "could" used a lot.  Could be vaccine evading, could be more infectious.   The short answer is We... Don't... Know...

First on vaccine evasion.  This is just a fear mongering press trying to get head lines.  We... Don't... Know...  Mu mutated in Columbia in Jan, 2021, so it is impossible that it mutated in response to the current vaccines.

Mu has been identified in every state save Nebraska.  In each area, it represents less than 1% of the total cases.  Far less.  For example, in California, 380 cases have been identified, as opposed to an estimated 254,000 active cases, or .15% the total.

My thoughts are that if Mu was more infectious/deadlier/vaccine evading, it would be more prominent than that.    With a press corps tired of reporting about Covid, this is just something new to write up.

An example from the NY Daily News on press prevarication, "The U.S. saw its peak of Mu variant cases in mid-July but case numbers involving that variant have been declining since, signaling either a weakening of the strain or indicating a worrisome future."

Ivermectin 

The anti-parasitic drug Ivermectin has captured the imagination of meme developers everywhere.  Here is what we know.  Ivermectin and HCQ have both been looked into extensively as a treatment for Covid.  Both have been suggested in looking for a reason the Covid has not cut a swath through equatorial Africa.  Both drugs are in heavy use there for treating the various parasites in that region.

Ivermectin's supporters claim it has not been studied, and allude to pharmaceutical company conspiracies.  Anti-vaxers have latched onto it as an alternative to vaccines.

 

It has been studied.  At least 57 studies so far.  And only one study has shown efficacy.  The rest have not. 

 

The one study has been heavily downloaded and shared on the anti-vax boards.  The study as it was originally published, was not peer reviewed.  But that is part of the normal process.  We have a month or so now of medical researchers looking at the paper, and they have issues with methodology and record keeping.  Notably duplicate patient numbers and incomplete records of patients that showed positive effects vice those that did not.

 

The American Journal of Therapeutics, where they looked at many of these studies and posted their results here.   In their final evaluation, with the exception of just one category, all the "quality of evidence" ratings of these studies is rated "low" or "very low".  However, that one category is "death from any cause".  78 out of 1,000 for no ivermectin verses 48 per 1,000 for ivermectin.  A 61% improvement in death from any cause. So the Journal's conclusion reads:

 

"Moderate-certainty evidence finds that large reductions in COVID-19 deaths are possible using ivermectin. Using ivermectin early in the clinical course may reduce numbers progressing to severe disease. The apparent safety and low cost suggest that ivermectin is likely to have a significant impact on the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic globally."

Unfortunately, this has been taken to heart by the anti-vax refusenicks as meaning they do not need the vaccine. They are only told ivermectin is an effective treatment, and can be used as preventive medicine.  

 

And many are raiding veterinary supplies for non prescription ivermectin.  Unfortunately the recommended dosage's are in mcg per kg of the patient.  You know, metric, and you have to do math.  And it comes in pills and liquid.  People are getting it wrong and adding to the ER load.

Where the logic falls down is 61% improvement on outcomes with ivermectin is not as good as 17-1 (94.2%) benefit of the vaccine is currently (CDC Aug 13) showing at preventing hospitalizations, this number has Delta factored in, but may not be weighted properly, but I'll go with the experts.  If you want ivermectin after you get hospitalized, I have no problem with that, but also be aware, it is not just ivermectin, but there is no established treatment regimen yet in this country, or any western country.

Where there is a treatment regimen is in Brazil.  A cocktail of ivermectin, HCQ, anti-inflammatory drugs,  tetracycline, azithromycin, referred to as "early treatment". So we have a real world experiment on the value of this drug.  Brazil has a population 2/3rd's the US, and 584,000 deaths compared to the US's 666,000.

It's not an either or thing with ivermectin, except for the anti-vax refusenicks.  They have signs up declaring "We have ivermectin, you can keep your vaccine." 

 

States in decline

I missed this last surge was going to happen.  During all of June, the numbers averaged 11,600 new cases daily.  Down from a peak of 301,000 on Jan 8.   I was lulled into a sense that Covid was over.  The vaccine had won, and we could go about our lives.  I was contemplating the final edition of this missive.

 

Evidence of this surge was there in the numbers, and I missed it. The clue was the stabilization.  Which implies the bottom of the curve, when it should have continued to decline.  When you bottom out, you can only go up.  I didn't catch that, while some  states were in decline, others were increasing.  Concentrating in the Covid denial areas and growing.  

 

As of today, we do have the reverse situation happening.  Most states are in decline.  This is the list where Covid is still climbing:

Iowa            1,613 new cases last week, a 283% increase over the previous week.
Louisiana    11,977 new cases last week, a 150% increase over the previous week.
West Virginia 8,975 new cases last week, a 136% increase over the previous week.

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These states are still increasing but between 101 and 113% of the previous week.
Maine
Nebraska
Ohio
North Dakota
Puerto Rico
Pennsylvania
New York

The rest of the states, protectorates, military, and districts are in decline.

 

Though, Florida is in doubt, as their change in counting makes it seem like they are in serious decline, at 44% the previous week, but that is just statistical bull shit.