Coronavirus, The Mid December Edition

 Coronavirus, The Mid December Edition

By the Numbers

 

The Numbers:

The number of new cases continue to grow.   For the week of 12/3 to 12/10, the number daily new cases increased about 9% per day, then has settled in to about 1.5% per day for the following week.   Bringing the total number of calculated cases to over 2.2 million cases nation wide.

In Pennsylvania, the average daily new cases continues to grow, 8,556 per day last week, up from 7,423 the week before, and 5,626 before that.

 

Omicron Highlights:

Since information on Omicron is coming in fast and furious these last two weeks, my missive was updated continuously and was in the form of stream of consciousness reporting.  So I split it in two, and you can read the ramblings if you want to.

Is Omicron more infectious?  Yes.   Research released by the UK, not yet peer reviewed, that Omicron will be the dominant strain in the UK by late December.  As of 12/13, Omicron represents 40% of all new cases in London.  In the US, Omicron is already 3% of the sequenced cases, and 13% of the new cases in NY and NJ.  For a comparison, previous variants, Mu and Lambda, never hit .1% in regions where they were found.

Is Omicron deadlier?  No, so far, there has been only 1 death attributed to Omicron out of 2,500 known cases in the UK.  And no deaths in South Africa against 78,000 cases.

Does vaccination help against Omicron?  Yes, initially the Astra Zenica and Pfizer vaccines does well for about 3 months, afterwards, the effectiveness drops down to the 35-40% range.  But vaccinations, even older ones have dramatically reduced the terms of hospitalization to 35% of that of previous variants. Boosters help bring it back to 75% effectiveness.  See diagram below.

Due to Omicron, the UK Recommendations for boosters is now 3 months vice 6 months.

Does Natural Immunity help against Omicron?  No. The omicron variant of COVID-19 appears to have a "substantial ability" to evade natural immunity acquired from past COVID-19 infections.

 

Does Omicron provide natural immunity against Delta?  We don't know. It is too soon to tell.

Does Omicron cause "Long Covid"?  We don't know. It is too soon to tell.

 

Omicron Ramblings:

The first case of the Omicron variant  detected in the US is a Minnesota man  who attended an anime convention November 19-21.  Since then, half of his group of 30 have come down with Covid, but Omicron itself has not been verified in the rest of the group, but a relative of one of his group, a man in his 60's, was later infected with the Omicron variant.  He had been vaccinated and boostered, and suffered only mild symptoms.  See here.

This incident predates South Africa's announcement of Omicron's existence, proving that Omicron was world wide before it was even detected. 

 

In my last report I stated that Omicron has gone from newly detected to dominating the case numbers in major regions of South Africa.  What I could not find out then, was if the variant  Beta, formally known as "South Africa", was still the dominant strain in SA.  Since then, I have finally had evidence that Beta had succumbed to Delta in SA like everywhere else.   

Why this is important is this.  If Omicron is out performing its parent Beta, that is one thing, but Delta is another.  I am writing this only a couple of days after my last missive, and it seems like Omicron has legs.

 

The latest surge in South Africa has been dramatic.  On Nov 1, the number of daily new cases was 350.  On December 16, it was 26,000.  Most of them have been the new Omicron variant.  But so far, the anecdotal reports are that it is less dangerous.  

South African Scientists have preliminary evidence that Omicron spreads more than twice as quickly as the delta variant in that country.   And "this new variant is more capable of bypassing antibodies generated by a prior infection than previous variants".  Which means, any "Natural" immunity is now out the window.

Pfizer lab studies show that three doses of their vaccine is able to provide adequate protection from Omicron.  Statistics in the wild will need time to be acquired.  

In Denmark, over 1,280 cases of Omicron have been detected, about 5% of the total number of Covid cases.

19% of those cases were among those that have booster shots.

But little or no deaths have been attributed to this variant.  

A South African study of 78,000 Omicron cases found the risk of hospitalization is 29 per cent lower compared with the original Wuhan strain, and 23 per cent lower than Delta, with vaccines holding up well.  ICU requirements in SA is 5% the number of cases, vice 22% for delta.  That that seems high to me.  Does it mean 5 and 22 of total cases, or just those hospitalized?  I am thinking hospitalized.

An anecdotal story about Omicrons ability to spread.  November 27, there was a Christmas luncheon held for some 150 students in Viborg, Denmark.   64 were later diagnosed with Omicron.  How many people came in with Omicron is unknown.

I'm thinking of getting this tattooed on my shot arm, any thoughts?