Thursday, February 24, 2022

Coronavirus, Late Feb Edition, 2022

 Coronavirus, Late Feb Edition, 2022

By the Numbers
 
Not much new here, save yourself 5 minutes and click off.  I'll never know...
 
The Numbers:
The Omicron surge continues to abate.  The average number of daily new cases continues to decline about about -6% per day.   About 80,000 new cases per day, down from a million a day in the second week of January.  The estimated number of total cases nation wide is about 1.6 million at this time.

The mortality rate peaked about 4 weeks after the top end of the surge on January 21 at around 3,000 per day and has been declining since.  The average for that is about a 1,500 a day.

On Removing the Restrictions:
Will removing all Covid restrictions cause another surge?  Probably not.  Logically, removing the restrictions CANNOT lower Covid new infections.  The question is by how much.
 
But truth be told, with the high level of civil disobedience regarding even the least restrictions, all removing the restrictions means is acknowledging what is fait accompli.  I was going to make a prediction here, but my hit/miss rate on them has been abysmal, so, I'll focus on what can be measured.

Why Not Just Get It Over With?:
There is a fatalistic thought that you might as well catch Covid now, and get it over with.   If you are vaccinated and boosted, your odds of dying of Delta, if you caught it, was just about 90 in 10,000.  We have had a lot of improvement on treatments since June.  I haven't seen any good numbers on Omicron yet.  But Omicron peaked at 4 times the number of cases of Alpha same time last year, and the number of deaths about the same, that puts the Omicron mortality rate at about 22 in 10,000.

This back of the envelope calculations here.  So take all this with a grain of salt.
 
Of that 22, the vaccinated are contributing about 2 deaths, unvaccinated 20.   See, here.

For flu 2017-2018 season, there was a 41,000,000 estimated number of cases in the US, 61,000 deaths.  That's 15 per 10,000. So we are in the same range as Omicron for an individual mortality rate.  But this does not take into a account the reinfection rate, which for Omicron is around 7, vice the flu's R rating of between 1.2-2.  
 
So when you roll those dice for the 22 in 10,000, you are forcing 7 people you know to also roll those dice.  
 
The odds of dying of Omicron, if you get it, is .0022 to 1.  Another way to look at it is the odds of surviving a single case of Omicron is .9978 to 1. 
 
One infection generation out there are now 8 cases, the 1 case, you, plus 7 new cases, the odds of all them surviving those cases is .9825 to 1.
 
Or the odds of at least one fatality is .0175 to 1.  This still seems like pretty good odds.

Compare against to the seasonal Flu.

The odds of dying of Flu, if you get it, is .0015 to 1.  Another way to look at it is the odds of surviving a case of Flu is .9985 to 1.   In both cases, the healthier you are, the better your odds, though Covid is still known to take healthy people as well.
 
One infection generation out there are now 2.2 cases, the 1 case, you, plus 1.2 new cases, the odds of all them surviving those cases is .996 to 1.
 
Or the odds of at least one fatality is .003.  (there is some fraction rounding here)

So for all the talk of Omicron being less deadly, it is still 5.8 times deadlier than Flu when taken out 1 infection generation.  
 
Now lets take this to two infection generations, with Omicron, there are 58 infected people, the odds of all of them surviving is .88%.  Note: that is point 88% as in under 1%.  Compare to Flu, infecting 3.6 people, the odds of all surviving is .994, or 20 times the odds of someone dying. 

And if you don't have to roll those dice, why would you?  There is no upside here.

The one argument is to catch Covid on your terms, and give you increased immunity of natural infection + vaccine for when you catch Covid again.  And this is true.  Being vaccinated and catching Covid confers more protection than either alone.
 
But the problem is no matter what the extended protection is, it is not zero.  Which means you have to roll the dice again.  Along with everyone you know. 

But why would you do that?
 
The Vagaries of the Numbers:
It's Tuesday, cup of mocha in hand, cat purring on the chair next to me, the heater is making a gentle hum, and I download the and compile the numbers.   27,798 new cases for yesterday.  I blink and while excel is bouncing back and forth doing calculations programmed years ago, (almost two years, think about that) and the number hit me.

27K?  Wait, weren't we just at 100K last week?  That's wonderful!  

Alas, with realization, the day before was Presidents day.  Where Washington comes out of his burrow, and if he sees Lincoln's shadow, we have six more weeks of Covid.
 
Various testing, reporting and psychology to any medical procedures get under reported on Sat, Sun. and holidays.   Throwing the day-to-day numbers out of whack.

One of my ways of dealing with this is to calculate a rolling average week by week, which mitigates the day to day peaks and troughs.

Still good, with the average day to day drop of new cases at 6%.
 









Thursday, February 10, 2022

Coronavirus, Mid Feb Edition, 2022

 Coronavirus, Mid Feb Edition, 2022

By the Numbers
 
The Numbers:
The Omicron surge continues to abate.  Despite the surge in the sub variant "BA.2", aka "The Son of Omicron."  This week, Feb 4-10, the number of new cases has been decreasing over 6% per day.  The current number of estimated active cases is approaching 4.5 million, down from the peak of 10.3 million 3 weeks ago.
The daily deaths, a lagging indicator, seems to have peaked last week at over 3,000 last week, and and is still bouncing around between 2 - 2.7 thousand daily.
 
Son of Omicron:
Sometimes I start writing a new one of these posts on the same day as publishing the last. A newer variant of Omicron is taking root.  Labeled as BA.2, it is reported as 50% more infectious than Omicron by the Statens Serum Institut in Denmark.  Where it is now the dominant strain.  Cases have been identified in half the US and everywhere in Europe. This one seems to have legs.

More Infectious?  What does that mean?
Omicron BA.2 is 1.5 times more infectious than BA.1.
Omicron is 3 times more infectious than Delta.
Delta is  2 times more infectious than Alpha.

So if you multiply this out, is BA.2, is 13.5 times more infectious than the original Wuhan virus?
There seems to be a bit of hyperbole with headlines for the infection ratings.   They are not even within the range of rounding errors for the sake of the narrative.

The R0, for the reproductive rating for Omicron, BA.1, is 7.  This means, on average, 1 person with Omicron can pass it on to 7 others.
Delta is 5.
The original strain is 2.79
For comparison purposes:
Seasonal flu is 1.2.
Mumps is 7.
Measles is 12.
 
See here...  And here
 
And what are the odds of Covid?
Per the CDC, on 1/22, here.
This encompasses the Delta dominant period during the months of October and November, and not  Omicron. 
Per 100,000 weekly     Cases        Deaths
    Fully Vax+ booster    25             .01
    Fully Vaxed               88             .06  
    Unvaxed                   348           7.8

Month of December, 2021, assuming a lot of Omicron cases
Per 100,000 Weekly    Cases        Deaths
    Fully Vax+ booster    149      
    Fully Vaxed               255
    Unvaxed                    726

Deaths for the Omicron period are not in the article.  This could be that it is a lagging indicator, up to 6 weeks, and not fully compiled by the writing of the article.
 
Some of the increase in numbers is due to the increased infectiousness of Omicron, others are a decreased protection of the vaccine, which, if I am reading this right is downgraded from 93% to 80%.
 
The 1918 Flu Pandemic, Two Years In:
An interesting article suggested to me on Yahoo! News.  By Jan, 1920, the Spanish flu was about to hit it's fourth surge, with headlines in New York like "Best Health Report for City in 53 Years,"  Many thought the pandemic was over.  The NY Health commissioner predicted the surge would be milder and those who that contracted it previously would be immune.  And he was wrong.  The 4th wave proved deadlier than waves 1 and 3 combined.  

Unlike Covid, the flu seemed to dial in on the youth, killing around 10% of the 20-30 year olds in the country.  One number had the life expectancy nationwide drop by 12 years.

As a side, and barely relatable note, the invention sulfa drugs a 15 years later increased the life expectancy by about 10 years.

By Feb, 1920, the New Jersey court system halted proceedings because of the illness.  One physician wrote a letter to the editor in the New York Times in the winter of 1920, begging people to avoid "needless exposure to influenza" through unnecessary social contact.
 
But flu fatigue affected the news headlines, desperate for something else to report on, and the excess mortality was relegated to the 4th page news. 

Sound familiar?