Coronavirus, Mid Feb Edition, 2022

 Coronavirus, Mid Feb Edition, 2022

By the Numbers

 

The Numbers:

The Omicron surge continues to abate.  Despite the surge in the sub variant "BA.2", aka "The Son of Omicron."  This week, Feb 4-10, the number of new cases has been decreasing over 6% per day.  The current number of estimated active cases is approaching 4.5 million, down from the peak of 10.3 million 3 weeks ago.

The daily deaths, a lagging indicator, seems to have peaked last week at over 3,000 last week, and and is still bouncing around between 2 - 2.7 thousand daily.

 

Son of Omicron:

Sometimes I start writing a new one of these posts on the same day as publishing the last. A newer variant of Omicron is taking root.  Labeled as BA.2, it is reported as 50% more infectious than Omicron by the Statens Serum Institut in Denmark.  Where it is now the dominant strain.  Cases have been identified in half the US and everywhere in Europe. This one seems to have legs.

More Infectious?  What does that mean?

Omicron BA.2 is 1.5 times more infectious than BA.1.

Omicron is 3 times more infectious than Delta.

Delta is  2 times more infectious than Alpha.

Alpha is 1.5 times more infectious than the original Covid.

So if you multiply this out, is BA.2, is 13.5 times more infectious than the original Wuhan virus?

There seems to be a bit of hyperbole with headlines for the infection ratings.   They are not even within the range of rounding errors for the sake of the narrative.

The R0, for the reproductive rating for Omicron, BA.1, is 7.  This means, on average, 1 person with Omicron can pass it on to 7 others.

Delta is 5.

The original strain is 2.79

. 

For comparison purposes:

Seasonal flu is 1.2.

Mumps is 7.

Measles is 12.

 

See here...  And here. 

 

And what are the odds of Covid?

Per the CDC, on 1/22, here.

This encompasses the Delta dominant period during the months of October and November, and not  Omicron. 

Per 100,000 weekly     Cases        Deaths

    Fully Vax+ booster    25             .01

    Fully Vaxed               88             .06  

    Unvaxed                   348           7.8

Month of December, 2021, assuming a lot of Omicron cases

Per 100,000 Weekly    Cases        Deaths

    Fully Vax+ booster    149      

    Fully Vaxed               255

    Unvaxed                    726

Deaths for the Omicron period are not in the article.  This could be that it is a lagging indicator, up to 6 weeks, and not fully compiled by the writing of the article.

 

Some of the increase in numbers is due to the increased infectiousness of Omicron, others are a decreased protection of the vaccine, which, if I am reading this right is downgraded from 93% to 80%.

 

The 1918 Flu Pandemic, Two Years In:

An interesting article suggested to me on Yahoo! News.  By Jan, 1920, the Spanish flu was about to hit it's fourth surge, with headlines in New York like "Best Health Report for City in 53 Years,"  Many thought the pandemic was over.  The NY Health commissioner predicted the surge would be milder and those who that contracted it previously would be immune.  And he was wrong.  The 4th wave proved deadlier than waves 1 and 3 combined.  

Unlike Covid, the flu seemed to dial in on the youth, killing around 10% of the 20-30 year olds in the country.  One number had the life expectancy nationwide drop by 12 years.

As a side, and barely relatable note, the invention sulfa drugs a 15 years later increased the life expectancy by about 10 years.

By Feb, 1920, the New Jersey court system halted proceedings because of the illness.  One physician wrote a letter to the editor in the New York Times in the winter of 1920, begging people to avoid "needless exposure to influenza" through unnecessary social contact.

 

But flu fatigue affected the news headlines, desperate for something else to report on, and the excess mortality was relegated to the 4th page news. 

Sound familiar?