Coronavirus, Early April Edition, 2022
The Numbers:
Nationwide, the estimated number of cases has been dropping very slowly now, by about .5%. The drop in new cases of the version Omicron being almost matched by the rise of the "Stealth Omicron" variant.
I based new cases identified, we are hovering around 370,000 total cases currently with the virus. 16,100 are hospitalized, the lowest number since 7/2020.
The Next Booster Shot:
On 3/29, the CDC announced its recommendations for the next booster shot. If you are over 50, or have immunocompromised conditions, and the last booster shot was at least 4 months ago, you are eligible for the next booster shot, either one of the mRNA's or Johnson and Johnson.
How effective is the booster shot?:
From statistics published in the Lancet Regional Health. These percentages are taken from patients already hospitalized with Covid, and so does not take into account that you are less likely to be hospitalized with Covid if you are vaccinated.
Fully vaccinated and boosted: Mortality rate 7.1%
Fully vaccinated, no booster: Mortality rate 10.3%
Unvaccinated: Mortality rate 12.8%
Are We There Yet?:
We are into the 3rd year of this pandemic, and plague fatigue is sitting end with even the most ardent followers. I wanted to close down this bi-weekly reporting last July, and then Delta hit. Based on the timeline for the Spanish Flu, we are almost there.
Timeline “Spanish” Flu
1/1918
Believed first cases of Spanish Flu in the US
3/1918
First known case of Flu in the US
First Wave: 3/1918 to 8/1918
Not a significant increase in the number of deaths. 75,000 for the season in the US as opposed to 63,000 in 1915.
Second Wave: 8/1918 to 1/1919
The deadliest wave, 330,000 deaths in the US.
Third Wave: 1/1919 – 6/1919
128,000 deaths in the US
Fourth Wave: 12/1919 – 4/1920
150,000 deaths in the US.
2 years, 3 months
Timeline Covid
12/2019
First cases in China.
1/2020
First case in the US
First Wave: 3/2020 to 8/2020
158,000 deaths in the US
Second Wave: 8/2020 to 2/2021
The deadliest wave, 292,000 deaths in the US
Third Wave: 7/2021 to 11/2021
“Delta” 156,000 deaths in the US
Fourth Wave: 12/2021 to present
“Omicron” 222,000 deaths in the US.
2 years 5 months
A lot of notable similarities. The waves mimicking their duration's, or just human nature for categorizing them. Second wave was the deadliest. We adapt, and third wave less deadly, we get fatigue of dealing with the pandemic and the fourth is deadlier. The fourth wave of the Spanish Flu, like Omicron, had mutated with a lower mortality rate, but more infectious.
As a historical FYI, the Spanish Flu did not originate in Spain. It may have mutated first in the US, as the first known case was an Army Cook in Kansas. Maybe he was experimenting with bat stew.
There was a war on, and the flu was affecting operations in France, so there was censorship in the press in all the warring nations. But Spain was neutral, and reported her cases freely, and so Spain got the blame for being ground zero for the plague.
More Evidence On Pandemic Fatigue:
We passed a million deaths from the plague last week, and I the only headline I saw about it was this week, and the article mentioned we were nearing a million dead. And since we crossed before the Oscars, so it wasn't the slap event either driving it from the headlines.
How much anti-vax propaganda was Russian generated?:
It has been well known, for over 5 years at least, that the Russians have set up organizations to create conflict within the western world using social media. It didn't matter the topic. If you were of one political alignment, they had bots to point flaws in the other. Any disagreement was being magnified. But how much was honest disagreement, and how much was Russian bots and agents, "stirring the pot"?
Since a lot of the internet traffic emanating in Russia has been cut off, we have been getting a substantial quieting of arguments.
For instance, NPR's forums and twitter accounts are now nearly devoid of anti vax come backs on articles on vaccine effectiveness.
I have noticed also a quieting on local forums along a similar vein. Anti vax supporters are virtually gone.
Also political attacks and snarkieness. From both sides.
Another anecdotal story of a "bot holiday" of Russian supplied invective. A Dr. Fisman, an ardent vaccine supporter, when he comments on Covid would get many angry replies to any tweet, including a test tweet stating simply, "Kids are Remarkable". Now receives none since Feb 28.
But it is not entirely due to being Russian internet traffic being blocked, the Russian bot farms are also redirecting to war propaganda. Since the invasion of Ukraine, 650,000 twitter accounts were created, spawning over 5 million pro Russian tweets. About 7% of the totals for this time period.
No comments:
Post a Comment