Coronavirus, Late June Edition, 2022

Coronavirus, Late June Edition, 2022

By the Numbers

The Numbers: 

Nationwide, the estimated number of cases, using official numbers, have been oscillating, between 900,000 and 1,000,000.  The estimated under count ranges from 3 to 20 times that number currently infected with the more benign Omicron sub variants.

More in keeping with reality, the number of people hospitalized with Covid is climbing.  27,000 for this week, up from 24,000 the week of memorial day, and a low point of 10,200 on Mar 23.

Government Issued Tests:

I ordered the next set of tests from the US Government and found their expiration dates to be August of 2022.  Thinking that was odd, I looked up the original set I ordered and they were dated April, 2023.  My wife is traveling, and the required tests for that are specifically listed, and she had to order them special, and they're expiration dates are 2023.  

What are the current numbers really?

To compare to seasonal flu, 2010-2011.  21 million cases, 32,000 deaths, 1 person in 650 died that had symptomatic symptoms of flu.

Covid, from day one, almost 2.5 years now, 89 million cases, 1,040,000 deaths.  1 person in 85 died that had symptoms.  

From Mar-June 2022, 1 person died in 356 that  reported symptoms.  It is considered that the number of cases is under-counted by 2/3rds or more, putting Covid deaths per cases around the level of season flu.

Comparing unvaccinated vice vaccinated.  In Mar, 2022 when Omicron was approaching 100% the number of cases.  For Pennsylvania, the number hospitalized Covid patients are 33 unvaccinated to 11 vaccinated.   Death rates in the same time period is 2.3 unvaccinated  to 1 vaccinated.  

Since the flu numbers include vaccinated and unvaccinated as well,  we can assume that the 1 in 650 deaths of flu also would be much lower for the vaccinated in that group as well.  

More on the current numbers:

In the UK, a group of people were tested, none of which had a positive covid test, were tested, and 95% had the Covid antibodies.  Meaning they had it, but it wasn't serious enough to warrant any attention.  To some, that means fatalism has set in, "its only a matter of time".  But so is death.  And we avoid that whenever possible.  

Repeat Omicrons:

Omicron has only been around for 8 months, and already some have caught it 3 times.  It seems an infection with Omicron produces a far weaker immune response, which seems to wane quickly, compared with infections with previous variants.   See here...

It has been noted that vaccinated people do not reinfect as easily as unvaccinated.  And recently boosted people less likely as well.  but there are no hard numbers to support this.

Heavy reading on the subject by the Lancet.