Coronavirus, Mid September Edition, 2022

 

Coronavirus, Mid September Edition, 2022

By the Numbers

The Numbers: 

Nationwide, the estimated number of cases, using official numbers, has continued to drop dramatically.  About 30% in the last 2 weeks to 568,000.  The official numbers continue be under-counted by a factor of 3-10, depending on the source of the estimate.

More in keeping with reality, the number of people hospitalized with Covid for this wave is also dropping at a more modest rate of 14%, from 34,500 to 30,018.

Dominant Variant in the US:

    BA.5 87.5%

    BA.4's 11.4%

Per CDC tracker...

New Vaccines Available Now:

The new bivariant vaccines are available now.  Basically they are 1/2 original Covid, 1/2 variant BA5, the dominant variant at this time.  When to get yours is subject to priorities, but I expect anyone can get it if they ask.  But should you?

In my humble opinion, the short answer is yes, but as a double boosted, I am going to wait a couple of months and top it off at the end of October.  There is advertising to get it when you get your flu shot, but flu shots also lose effectiveness over time, about 6 months, so that too can wait.

Long Covid

The current, Oct 22, Consumer Reports has an article on Long Covid.  I peruse articles like this in an effort to divine something new and interesting, and am often disappointed. 

Long Covid is the name given to a variety of symptoms that people experience long after the initial Covid has cleared out of the system.  They include in descending order of probability:

    Fatigue  (34%)
    Change/loss Smell or taste
    Shortness Breath(24%)
    Cough
    Headache(21%)
    Sleep Disorders
    Muscle Pain (17%)
    Cognitive Dysfunction
    Chest Pain (11%)
    Mood Change
    Stomach pain (9%)

While the overall cause of Long Covid is considered a mystery, to me, the answer is obvious.  Covid attacks vascular systems.  When it settled in the kidneys or heart, it killed people.  If it settles in the lungs, it tears up the lung capillaries.  If the brain, then Cognitive Dysfunction. This is long term structural damage that takes time to heal. 

Long Covid symptoms can persist on  average, up to 6 months.  About 2% last a year.  Some last two years so far.

Consumer Reports notes that women experience Long Covid 20-50% more often than men.  I think what they are seeing is that Women are just more in tune with their bodies then men, and men are just ignoring the symptoms.

Long Covid affects ages 45-69 more than other age groups, about 70% of the total cases.  I'm guessing here that under 45 do not get Long Covid as long and heal faster, and over 70 is just lumping the symptoms in with whatever else is bothering them.  

Not mentioned in this article is that the odds of Long Covid go up with each reinfection.  And with the severity of those infections.  

And the vaccinated experience Long Covid far less than the unvaccinated.

The recommendations in the article on what to do if you are experiencing Long Covid is boiler plate diatribe.  See your doctor.  Join a support group.  But somehow they slipped in "do-gooder" advice to change your diet.  And had a singular account of someone that changed their eating habits to the Mediterranean diet.  (Seriously, did anyone review this article?)

On Flying.

The skies are a mess, and in the last 6 weeks, four people I actually know, caught Covid while they were on a plane.  In two cases, on long flights, they tested negative when they left the US, and positive when they got to their destination.  And two people that flew, but didn't catch Covid.  I know that 5 of the 6 were fully vaxed and boosted.  All have since recovered, but one may be experiencing Long Covid now.    This is a small set of numbers, and not statistical at all.  And probably I'm just a little bit biased. 

Boeing commissioned a study on catching Covid while flying and their result was 1 in 1,700,000.  This study may be considered extremely biased. And about 6 orders of magnitude off from my personal observations.

MIT did a study from 6/2020 to 2/2021 and had the odds at 1 in 1,000 for a trip, but considered it a round trip, and with a transfer and layover, so 4 flights really, and calculated the odds are to be 1 in 250.  This was during the time period when masks were still required on flights, and preceded the current Omicron variant, which proved to be the most infectious of the variants.

So now, we are flying sans-masks, with the most infectious, but benign variant running around.  So my 4 in 6 observation is only between 1 and 2 orders of magnitude with the MIT study.

What to do if you think you have Covid:

I wrote this before, but it bears repeating.  If you have a home test, take it.  If positive, call your doctor for a Paxlovid prescription.  You probably will not need to go to his office.  He really doesn't want you there anyway.  This can reduce your symptomatic phase by days.  And the chances of Long Covid.

If you don't have a home test, call the pharmacy.  In some of them, they will test you, then call the doctor for the prescription, just one car trip for you.