Coronavirus, February 2024

Coronavirus, February 2024

 By the Numbers

The Numbers: 

The number of hospitalizations from Covid in the US seems to have hit its peak and is now in decline.  From 15,000 in November to 35,000 on Jan 6, 2024.  By Jan 20, the number of admissions had dropped to 26,600.  For perspective, the low for the year was 6,000 in May.  So the peak did not hit 44,000 that was the first week of January, 2023.  Covid deaths are now about 1,500 a week.  Covid has dropped to 4th most likely cause of death in the US.

Source Covid-19 hospitalizations here...

Dominant Variants in the US:

JN.1  86% up from 7.5% in November
HV.1    5.3% Down from 31% in November
XBB's   1(ish)%  Down from 12% in November
JD 1.1   1.6%, down from 7.7% in November
BA 2.86  1.5%, down from 8.8%  last month
And the rest don't matter...

Per CDC tracker...

All the dominant variants are still "Omicron" derived, and the latest vaccine is still effective at mitigating the symptoms. 

There has been hype about variant JN.1 now being dominant.  But it is mostly filler for the news.  The variant is no more or less lethal than its ancestor.  But again is listed as more virulent.  I have had so many variants listed as "more virulent" that the numbers just don't matter.

Long Covid Update

A Dutch study of 25 Long Covid patients has offered clues as to the reasons for fatigue suffered by Long Covid patients.  ..."acute exercise-induced reduction in skeletal muscle mitochondrial enzyme activity"...  Mitochondria turn sugar and oxygen into energy in cells.  If that is damaged, then the ability to exercise is limited.  So individuals inclined to hit the gym to rebuild their lost muscle mass and endurance can't.

Caveats however are the small sample size of 25 LC patients and a control group of 21. 

Covid v Flu Addendum

I do not think I was totally clear last article on the Covid v Flu differences.  Comparing Covid to Flu deaths last year, 98,000 to 4,900 would give the impression that Covid is 20 times more lethal.  But the number of flu deaths and hospitalizations are also way down from the average.  

In the last 10 years, the worst flu season, 2017/18, claimed 52,000 lives.  The least was 2011/12 with  12,000.  The average was 34,500.  About 1 person in 12 hospitalized by flu dies.   Per the CDC

Since 11/1/2022, with the dominance of the Omicron variant, the number hospitalized for Covid is 7.1 million, 68,000 have died, a percentage of just under 1%.  This seasons Flu has infected an estimated 18-35 million, 200-400 thousand have been hospitalized, of which 13 -38 thousand have died.  About .1% (that's point 1) percent if the estimated infected, and .8% of those hospitalized.  Per the CDC.

These statistics do not paint the complete picture.  And you will have to draw your own conclusions here.  The vast majority of flu sufferers do not get hospitalized.  Probably more than Covid.  But for the last year and then some, it is safe to say most Covid sufferers are also not being hospitalized.  

Since November, the number of weekly hospitalizations due to flu  peeked around Dec 30, at around 2,500, and has started to decline.

saRNA vaccines

Japan has authorized the first 'sa'RNA vaccine for Covid, referred to as "LUNAR-COV19".  The 'sa' stands for self-amplifying. While the previous mRNA vaccines did teach the body to make antibodies against Covid, the saRNA's teach the body to make more mRNA.  In theory this means a much smaller dose is required.  And it should last longer.  

A previous saRNA against flu required just 1/64th the dose.  

At this time, I am reticent about this.  A misfire could cause a "grey-goo" scenario.

For more information see here....

Required Corporate Disclaimer:  #CVSTeam  I am employed by CVS and the opinions expressed are solely my own and do not express the views or opinions of my CVS.