Coronavirus, Late August 2023

Coronavirus, Late August 2023

 By the Numbers

The Numbers: 

The weekly hospitalization numbers with Covid was 12,600 for the week ending Aug 12. This is up from 7,100 around July 21. For perspective, the lowest weekly hospitalization numbers was in June at 6,200. The highest was over 100k last year.

Source Covid-19 hospitalizations here...

Dominant Variants in the US:

XBB's  60% Down from 83% in Mid July
EG.5    23.9% Up from 11% in Mid July

FL 1.5   13.3% Up from zero in mid July

And the rest...

Per CDC tracker...

Repeat Covid Summer "Bump"

This is a rerun, as the numbers of the bump have increased since last missive. From a low of 6,200 to 12,600 for the week ending Aug 12, more than doubled.

The main Covid news is about the increase in Covid hospitalized cases reported late this month. Explanations as to why range from new variants to increased traveling.

My theory, and it is just my theory, is that our Covid herd immunity is timing out. The body has two types of immune memory. One is short term, as with the common cold or flu, and the other is long term, as with mumps and measles. Our body's defenses treat Covid like a cold and relegate it to short term memory. So the 4th booster shots and last major surges in December are timing out. Combined with increased exposure through things like air travel and other normal human behavior, and you have a bump.

Another reason is only 17% of the population received the latest bivalent booster.  81% received the original vaccine.   

The "Bump" no longer accurately describes this increase, now double, in the number of cases.  Hospital systems are considering going back to requiring masks on the premises.  

EG.5, aka "Eris"

You may see headlines of how the variant "Eris" is now the dominant strain of Covid in the US. While totally true, it is also totally misleading. See the above numbers. EG.5 is gaining traction, but the total of the XBB's is still the majority of the cases.

There is no increase in cases or deaths or that infections involving this variant are more severe.

The Next Vaccine

The next vaccines are scheduled for release in mid September. The vaccine was built from the XBB 1.5, "The Kraken", variant. Currently about 5% of all infections are XBB 1.5, but most of the the variants, including "Eris", and FL 1.5.1 totaling 97% of all current infections, are descended from it.

The new vaccines will be produced by Moderna, Pfizer and Novavax. J&J is no longer producing Covid Vaccines. 

An Anecdotal Story About Mask Effectiveness

A story related by Dr. Steven Novella on the latest podcast of "Skeptics Guide to the Universe."  His hospital went mask optional 3 weeks ago.  And he now has caught his first cold, not Covid, in over 3 years.  No mystery as to why.  He sees many patients a day, some of which had obvious sniffles or other cold like symptoms.

The Skeptics Guide to the Universe podcast is on my short list of podcasts I listen too when I am running errands.  Regulars include a pair of doctors and a few science geeks.  They tare into current bullshit fads with evidence based information.

Covid Mortality vs the Flu

I was asked if Covid mortality rates had hit flu levels yet?  The answer then was I wasn't sure, so off to Google land. 

I found this article analyzing databases provided by the Veterans Administration (VA) for the time period between 10/22 and 1/23.  Mainly the Omicron variant, which is far less lethal, but more virulent than the original Covid Variants.

Short form.  If hospitalized, the fatality rate for Covid was 6%, Flu was 3.75%.  In the pre-vaccine days of Covid, the fatality rate was around 20% of hospitalized cases.  Flu was 3.8%, and so largely unchanged.

In addition, there were 9,000 hospitalizations for Covid, 2400 for Flu.

You could multiply that out and make a case that Covid is still 6 times deadlier than Flu.  Or just note that the number hospitalized for Covid was more than triple that of Flu, during the height of Flu season.  

Note: The peak hospitalization during this period of time for Covid nationwide was 44,000 in a week.  Vice 12,600 two weeks ago.  Flu hospitalizations peaked at 26,000 for the week of Dec 12.  

Currently the number of weekly Flu hospitalizations in the USA is around 675.

Since this study was based on VA data, the study group was from older and predominantly male population.