Coronavirus, Mid-September, 2024

 

Coronavirus, End of September, 2024

 By the Numbers

Some of this information is old, as I am trying to keep these missives to once every 2 months.

The Numbers: 

The number of Covid cases has been climbing steadily over the summer. This is born out in the statistics on the number of hospitalizations from Covid.  From a low of 1.1 hospitalizations per 100,000 population in April, to 2.5 in June, to 4.8 in August.  This has started to drop by the end of August.

Peak for the year was the first week in January at 7.6.  For a comparison, the peak for last year was 7.7, in Dec, 2023, and the year before at 10.9 in December, 2022.

Source Covid-19 hospitalizations here...

The number of weekly deaths has risen to about 700 in July/August, to just over 1,000 in September.  This is up from 330 in May. Peak for the year was 2,500 in January.   See here...

The pattern for rise and fall has been nearly identical since 2021.

And where is Covid increasing?  Here is a link to the wastewater tracking information...  This chart used to be more localized "dots" on a map, but now it is just state by state. 

Dominant Variants in the US:

Various KP's, 83%

LB.1  11% and declining

Others   6%

Per CDC tracker...

I was traveling in a plane earlier in August, and got a renewal of the older booster.  I have had 3 friends catch Covid recently while attending a convention a spacious, well ventilated convention center.  This also means I won't be eligible for the latest formulation until November or so.

I'm almost at that "free" shot.

Free At Home Tests

Last month, the government announced a renewal of free at home Covid tests starting later in September. Not yet available till Septembers end.  But the link should be here.

New Booster Available

The FDA has approved updated Covid booster shots to be available soon.  They are "Comirnaty", by Pfizer-BioNTech, "Novavax",  and Spikevax by Moderna.  

Both boosters are based on the variant  KP.2.  I see that Spikevax is recommended for ages 12 and up.  Comirnaty ages 6 months and up. 

The previous booster, available from 2023 till August 2024, was based on the variant BA.5 and the original virus.

The new boosters should be available as of this publishing.   Recommended for all at risk population who has not had a booster or case of Covid within the last 4 months.  And face it, everyone on my email list is in that group.

Personal Experience with Covid

I have been writing these missives for over 4 years now.  More or less trying to provide the straight information, but without any first hand experience.

Until now.

I flew to Europe for a gaming competition and then followed on with a site seeing tour of Lisbon, Euro-Disney and Paris.  8 days after arrival, Joanne came down with what we now believe to be Covid.  At the time it seemed like a head cold, a seasonal crud, and after napping most of the day, she was out and about.  The Paris bus tour, the Louvre, Eiffel Tower and dinner cruises.  All with a fair amount of foot pounding.

3 days later we boarded the plane for home and I slowly declined during the flight.  I must have looked horrible, as 3 strangers asked me if I need help going through the de-boarding process. Two worked for American Airlines, so full marks for customer service.  One of them followed me briefly with a wheel chair.  

On arriving home, and feeling worse, I took an expired (all my at home tests are expired at this time) Covid test and it reported an emphatically positive result.  Joanne took one of the less expired tests and which was also unambiguously positive.  

I have reported before, that the government tests the old tests for efficacy.  The rule of thumb is, if it reports positive, it's positive.  A negative result should be regarded as uncertain.

Slept for 12 hours, woke up, my phone's face recognition software did not know who I was.  Or maybe it was just a bad hair day. :)

At 8:30, I called the VA.  The VA called back within the hour. They accepted my test results as valid, and ordered Paxlovid(tm) for treatment.  By 11am, I had taken the first dose.  By noon, I was back in bed.  At three I woke up with, "My God, 'IS THAT MY BREATH!'"  I had read about it, heard some commentary, and if I was lackadaisical in my responses, for that, I am truly sorry.

Paxlovid has a bitter tasting compound that  causes your saliva to generate the antigens to deal with the virus.  The counter point is you are going to have bad breath for a while.  

And regarding the aches and pains that is Covid suffering, I did not have enough sympathy there either.

Now back to bed again.

 

Health Benefits of Childhood Vaccines
This is a bit long, and somewhat political and not strictly about COVID.

These are excerpts from the recent CDC report on the "Health and economic benefits of routine childhood Immunization."

In the report summary:
Among children born during 1994–2023, routine childhood vaccinations will have prevented approximately 508 million cases of illness, 32 million hospitalizations, and 1,129,000 deaths, resulting in direct savings of $540 billion and societal savings of $2.7 trillion.

These are big numbers.  Made somewhat possible by the 1994 program, U.S. Vaccines for Children (VFC). Which has covered the cost of vaccines for children whose families might not otherwise be able to afford them.  Published CDC report can be found here: https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/73/wr/mm7331a2.htm

Now the Gallup Polling company has been posing a question over time, from 2002 to 2024,  "How important is it that parents get their children vaccinated -- extremely important, very important, somewhat important, not very important or not at all important?"

For all Americans, the number for Very Important or above sat at 64% in 2002.  This declined to 54% in 2015 with a rise to 58% in 2019.  In 2024 fell to 40%.

Part of the reason for the gradual decline from 2002 to 2019 is that for most of our lives, we have lived in a world with a seriously reduced childhood disease environment.  Where as in 2002 many people have lived in pre-polio vaccine world and has memories of measles, mumps and rubella outbreaks maiming and killing children.

Now plus 20 years later, that cultural memory is fading, combined with vaccines have done their job of dealing with the threats very well.

With the politicization of the Covid vaccine, the numbers have gone south quickly.

In the Gallup article, it also covers the same question, indexed against party affiliation for the answer "Extremely Important." 
2002 66% D, 62% R
2015 59% D, 52% R
2019 67% D, 52% R
2024 63% D, 26% R 

So there was a small difference between 'D's and 'R's in 2002.  And with the drop in 2015, the difference tracked together.  Then in 2019, there was an increased separation.  More D's answered "Extremely Important", while the R's stayed the same from 2015.  Now, after 4 years of Covid, the R's response took a dive.

One implication is that the news feeds for the R's were effective in sowing distrust of all government provided information, including the Covid vaccines, and by inference, all vaccines in general.  While promoting ineffective treatments.  But another implication is that having survived the pandemic, other fear mongering has taken it's place.

There was another question, "should the Government require vaccinations for children?"  In 1992, 81% said yes.  In 2019, 62% said yes.  In 2024, 51% said yes.  This breaks down to 69% D and 36% R.

And the final question on the list, "Do you think vaccines are more dangerous than the diseases they are designed to prevent, or not?"
In 2002, the number that replied yes was 6%.  Broken down to 5% D, 6% R
2015 9%    Broken down to 8% D, 8% R
2019 11%   Broken down to 10% D, 12% R
2024 20%   Broken down to 5% D, 31% R

Gallup poll published here: https://news.gallup.com/poll/648308/far-fewer-regard-childhood-vaccinations-important.aspx

Considering how successful childhood vaccinations have been in the last 30 years, we are talking trillions of dollars to the country, it is reprehensible that as one of Trumps stump speech items is that he will, "Sign a new executive order to cut federal funding for any school pushing Critical Race Theory, and I will not give one penny to any school that has a vaccine mandate (emphasis mine) or a mask mandate."  See here:

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/trump-vows-to-defund-schools-requiring-vaccines-for-students-if-hes-reelected

Fast forward to 37 seconds in the video for verification. 

For the sake of full disclosure, the official Republican party platform stops short at de-funding schools at just CRITICAL RACE THEORY, RADICAL GENDER IDEOLOGY, AND OTHER INAPPROPRIATE RACIAL, SEXUAL, OR POLITICAL CONTENT ON OUR CHILDREN, (their caps, not mine) but is silent on vaccinations.  See the official Republican party platform here...

And if you accept that Project 2025 will be used as a blueprint for a Trump administration, it does state,  "Never again should CDC officials be allowed to say in their official capacity that school children “should be” masked or vaccinated (through a schedule or otherwise) or prohibited from learning in a school building."  (emphasis mine).  For a PDF of Project 2025, see here...  page 454.

 

 

 

The Charge of the Tired Vacationer

The Charge of the Tired Vacationer
with apologies to Lord Tennyson.

Half a block, half a block,
Half a block onward,
All in the valley of Disney
Walked the six hundred dollars.
‘Forward to Pooh, we say!
Pass the cars and cups we said.!’
into the valley of Disney
Walked the six hundred.

‘Forward the six hundred!’
Was there a mortal dismayed?
Not though’ the foot did swell,
Or some blister raised.
Theirs not to make reply,
Theirs not to reason why,
Theirs but to walk and die:
Into the valley of Disney
Strolled the six hundred.

Strollers to the right of them,
Wheelchairs to the left of them,
Tourists in front of them,
Jostled and impeded,
Assaulted by sun and sound,
Boldly they strolled and well,
Into the jaws of merchanting,
Into theme park Hell
Rode the six hundred.

Flash Passed their status be,
Scanned their credit cards in air,
Exchanging with the merchants there,
Charging up an army, while
All the world wondered,
Plunged into the faux-smoke.
Right through the queue they broke,
Mickey and Donald
Reeled from their card swipes.
Debited and defaulted,
then they strolled back, but not
Not the Six hundred.

Stores to the right of them,
Peddlers to the left of them,
Restaurants behind of them,
Bassed and trebled,
Assaulted by sound and smell,
While cash and card fell,
They that had saved so well,
Came through the Jaws of Disney,
Back from theme park Hell,
All that was left of them,
Left of the six hundred.

When can their glory fade?
O the wild charge they made!
All the world wondered.
Honour the charge they made!
Honour the Vacationer,
Noble six hundred!

A Week in Politics, Late July

 A Week in Politics, July 21-28, 2024

As a political animal, I try to stay on top of current events.  As a historian, I try to keep a perspective.

But this week, wow.

That Biden would step down was something largely regarded as unthinkable.  It was considered a killer for the party in power.  Last standing president not to run was Lyndon Johnson (D), and the presidency was then decided in favor of Nixon (R).  Before that was Truman (D), and it went to Eisenhower (R).  After that it was Coolidge to Hoover, both R's. So the odds were not good.

But there seemed to be a lot of pressure from the party leaders to step down.  To the jeering for the pundits on right.

Be careful what you wish for.

As far as the news cycle is reporting, this just happened.  The decision was described as "finalized" on July 21.  This I do not believe.  

The reason I do not believe this is because the advertisements to donate to Harris were in my feeds less that a day later.  Through multiple channels.  They were polished and ready.  There was no sign that this was a slap dash put together at the last minute, but a well organized and orchestrated event.  

And she pulled in 200+ million dollars, 66% from first time donors, is evidence of how well this was done.  

Something like this requires talent and time.  Which is why I disbelieve the decision was made on July 21st.  

The timing was too perfect.  The Republicans had just ended their convention anointing Trump / Vance as their ticket.  Typically, a candidate gets a convention bounce in the polls the week after the convention.  Trump's polling was riding high on his surviving the assassination attempt, and ahead of Biden in the swing states that mattered.  He could count on a nice bounce for the following week, possibly all the way to the Democratic National Convention.  

This announcement took the wind out of his sails, in the polls, and it seems to have taken a toll on his personal morale.  His insults had no bite, his witty-in-his-own-mind stories were just sounding weird.  But I get the off the cuff commentary.  Can you imagine the same speech every day, for years.  You got to change it up.  Unfortunately for his staff writers, Trump knows best on how to play his audience. 

Meanwhile, by day 2, Harris had just about everything she needed to lock up her nomination.  By Wednesday, her approval rating was announced as higher than Trump in many of the "Battleground" states.  So Trump did not get a convention bounce, but actually declined.  All the benefit of free advertising from the assassination attempt and the RNC bounce just evaporated.

If Harris wins this election, this was the moment it happened.  It will be regarded as a master stroke.  And who engineered this master stroke?  Our cognitively challenged president, Joe Biden.  Really?  Who else?  He may be in decline, but he has never lost an general election. Ever.  For 54 years!  That doesn't just happen either.  He knows how to play this game to win. 

 

 

Coronavirus, End of July, 2024

Coronavirus, End of July, 2024

 By the Numbers

The Numbers: 

There has been a number of news reports on an increase in Covid cases.  This is born out in the statistics on the number of hospitalizations from Covid.  From a low of 1.1 hospitalizations per 100,000 population in April, to the current 2.5 last week.  

Peak for the year was the first week in January at 7.6.  For a comparison, the peak for last year was 7.7, in Dec, 2023, and 10.9 in December, 2022.

Source Covid-19 hospitalizations here...

The number of weekly deaths has been around 330 since May, down from 500 in the April/May time frame, and 2,500 in January.  See here...

And where is Covid increasing?  Here is a link to the wastewater tracking information...  This chart used to be more localized "dots" on a map, but now it is just state by state. 

Dominant Variants in the US:

Various KP's, 62%

LB.1  17.5

Various JN.1.X's  7%

Per CDC tracker...

A Covid Cannabis Risk Factor?

Between 2/1/2020 and 1/31/2022, UW Health(Wisconsin and Illinois area) asked anyone that showed up at their hospitals with Covid a few questions.  One was had you used cannabis (ingested or smoked) at least once in the previous last year.  They also asked about smoking. The sample looked at 72,000+ Covid cases.  Of which 51,000 were hospitalized, 4,700 were sent to the ICU, and 2,700 died..

The results were that the cannabis users were 1.8 times more likely to have needed hospitalization, and 1.27 times more likely to need ICU over non cannabis users. For Smokers was 1.72 and 1.22.  

From JAMA... 

From what I understand, cannabis use has been associated with suppression of the immune system.  So this would be a correlation to that.

From NCBI...

 

Have You Seen This Gene?

In 2021 UK researchers intentionally infected 16, unvaccinated, but otherwise healthy people with Covid to study how the disease progresses. Of them, only 6 contracted the disease.  Of the 10 remaining, 7 never tested positive at all.  3 never felt sick, but tested positive.  

These 10 had an "high expression"* from the gene, HLA-DQA2.  Noted was an immediate interferon response in the nasal passages.  The 3 that never felt sick had interferon response in their blood.  Sick individuals took up to 5 days for the interferon response to show up.

See the BMJ...

So if you have never gotten Covid, it could be your genetics.

*what does "high expression" mean?  I have no clue.

 

 

Ottocon, 2024

A Headless Body Production

Venue: In an undisclosed basement, somewhere in Carlisle, Pennsylvannia
Event: OttoCon!*
Players: Various
Game System: Various

A HOTT** Time in Old Barsoom (pun intended)

GM Eric Ackermann

*NOT to be confused with the younger, but better promoted, Ottocon of Hudson Valley, just a week earlier on June 8th. A link to their web page...

 ** Hoards of the Things.

First game of the day. In the sky's over Barsoom.

It's a classic forces of evil v good. The cities of Yars (yeah!) and Taros(boo!!!), in a desperate for a mythical artifact yet to be uncovered in a recently discovered ruin.

The Yarsanian (Yari? Yarsoomian? Yarphas?) flying high on their imported Yaris's.

But the malicious and unkind Tarosians (Tari? Tarsoomian?, Tarocs?) also have their flying Taurus's

The most valuable unit in the Yars line (+6 v all), stands read in the rearmost position of the line.

Tarok, the great general of Taros, plants his banner in the middle of the line.

Near the inland sea of Balkania, the mysterious ruins of Yarboaryon hold mysteries yet to be revealed.

The actual preview of the game.

The rules are just H.O.T.T**

Just to pages of rules. And half of the landscape is charts!

There was some aerial action earlier, but in the end, it's just a scrum down the line.

Where the evil and vile men of Taros (Tari? Tarsoomian?, Tarocs?) heavily disorder the Yars line.

A Yars Yaris is flanked and force to turn.

and subsequently crashes to the ground.

The forces of good perform a "reorganize the lines" tactic. AKA, "Run away".

The Tarosian hero (Boo!!!), may his naval lint fester, advances to support their flying Taurus's

But with redoubled effort, the great hero of Yars (Yeah!!!) advances and smites the villian!

The Villains however, sneak their small aerial Sma' t' vehicle, ambushing the our hero.

The distraction was enough to bring another Yaris flying car to the ground.

But their win had came at a price, as the Sma' t' car is punctured and ruined.

Now, our hero is surrounded, and pounded from the air. He rises back once, then twice, before collapsing to the ground.

With his final breath, was the utterance, "save yourselves". And with that began the great retreat to Yars.

Meeting Engagement, Tuesday, 1943, Robert Ricigliano

Meanwhile, on another world, one where the men with theodolites are held in high regard, a German Panzer Battalion, Pz III's, supported by STG IV's (count the road wheels) and mechanized infantry, begin to advance.

I am guessing KV-1's in the lower half, and Model 1941 T-34s in the upper half.

WWII very small scale action standing by.

This segment of OttoCon is brought to you by Leninade. If you're thirsty, and don't care about the flavor, reach for Leninade. It may not quench your thirst, but it won't leave you wanting more!

Solomon Kane and the Devil of Arnescote

Tough choice for 2PM. Space battles or Solomon Kane RPG?

GM: Jeff Wasileski

Description:Puritan hero investigates devilry in a Royalist stronghold.

(Investigate: verb, "to commit justice")

The recently taken castle of Arnescote. What mysteries lay in the ruined church near by.

The Battle of the Nile, with great effects.

Arnescote has been recently been taken by Parliamentary forces. It's lord lies in state in the ruined church.

A small garrison of Parliament soldiers have been left behind.

Product placement of Leninade.

The question was never answered. WHO's "small cloths" are those?

The inner details of Castle Arnescote was amazing. Including pewter plates.

We held a meeting with the caretaker of Arnescote. He was mentally out of it.

 Also noticed were strong hints of vampyre.

 We are playing a party led by the famous adventurer, Solomon Cane in an effort to solve disappearances in the village of Arnescote after Parliment took control of the village towards the end of the English Civil War. 

Solomon Kane is a fictional character created by the pulp-era writer Robert E. Howard. A late-16th-to-early-17th century Puritan, Solomon Kane is a somber-looking man who wanders the world with no apparent goal other than to vanquish evil in all its forms. His adventures, published mostly in the pulp magazine Weird Tales, often take him from Europe to the jungles of Africa and back. 

Other characters were Jack Helmnsey, another adventure and monster hunter, N'Longa, and African Shaman and close ally to Solomon. A mysterious Mohawk, and one other monster hunter.

The game is a series of scenes. Some are narrative only, some are action. Scene two has us investigating the hanging hill. unsanctified land suitable for the burial of witches. Our investigation led to the discovery of several interesting artifacts. And an attack by wolves. Jack was fortunate to not be a target of a wolf, and was able to lend his sword to saving N'longa from a frantic attack.

This was an amazing layout for a grave yard.

Jack was disinterring the previous lord of Arnescote in the church when hoards of rats attacked the graveyard. Racing to the north corner, he saved the Mohawk and a couple of villagers we recruited. Then plugged one of the holes the rats were exuding from.

In the south, with the great hero Solomon, and two other characters, it looked like all was well in hand.

But the dice were fickle, and the rats proved to be very slippery and difficult to disperse. In the end, Jack grabbed a cracked tombstone, raced (this is a feat he had) across the yard, dispersed the rats and smashed the spawn point.

His personal count of saving other characters was now 3. Only Solomon Cane, remember Solomon Cane? This is a story about Solomon Cane, remained as a character not needing saving.

With the clues we had, we were sure there was a vampyre in the castle. But how to handle this. We had acquired a number of NPC's.
 

But somehow, a frontal assault seemed a bad idea.

As luck would have it, there was an impromptu witch hanging being organized. The victim to be was the chief cook if the castle.

Taking advantage of the shadow skills of the Shaman N'longa, we managed to spirit away the hapless cook. Which had two effects. One) and doubts she was a witch have been removed! Two) we now know about the not-so-secret underground passage into the castle.

 We split into two groups.

One party, lead by Solomon, sneaked into the recently renovated torture chamber in the basement.

 Where Solomon committed justice on a number of miscreants.

Jack, and one other adventurer (sorry, I don't know the name), and a couple of villagers take the canon.

Mayhem ensued. Armored warriors responded, but were caught in transit by N'Longa's electric spells, and literally poured out of the tower windows.

 Observing the pile of bodies, Jack stared at the captured gunners, "This is when you run away". 

And skedaddle they did.

As Solomon and company finished off the remaining guards, Jack used his running feat again to go past them. Throwing a grenade ahead of him, the managed to surprised the shocked caretaker. Disarmed him, and gained valuable information on the final Boss of the level.

It was a lady vampyre.

By this time we were all double armed with loaded pistols, and place a number of holes in her bustier. But did not inconvenience her over much.

Solomon went to work. With the last of N'Longa's magic, he was buffed and committed justice on her with his temporarily enhanced rapier.

It was a damaging attack, but not enough. Jack had one last feat as well, "Flourish", which did no damage, but force the vampyre back so that Solomon (aka, the hero), would not be attacked in turn. This completed his bucket list of personally saving every character on the board!

Having an extra action, Jack managed to put another cut on the lady. Followed up by the Mohawk, who had acquired a huge hammer in scene two, which pulped her head for the finish.

This was a great layout, and Jeff Wasileski did a great job of adjudicating, and frankly I couldn't have asked for a better group of players. With no experience in this game, who really didn't know each other. We pulled together in a loose team and had a great time.

We never got the story about the crucified skeleton either.

What is this? It is going to be futuristic terrain.

On Friday night we MST'd or Riff Tracked, the movie To the Shores of Tripoli. All of us having military experience, or wives that have decades of understanding, it was fun making commentary that did not require explanation.

High points include Maureen O'Hara giving the camera the same look she probably gave the producer when told she would do a (bad) belly dance. And the marines, despite having ample mules and wagons, still riding horses with their packs.

Saturday night was "Space Probe Taurus". Of which, the less said, the better. Best riff was during the credits. "Is that it, that's all?"

"You wanted more? You should be grateful it's over."

Purple hearts to be awarded to Tracy and Eric. Who sat through the movie twice. (shudder)

Putting this one on my Worst Movies Ever list.  See here...

Coronavirus, End of May, 2024

 Coronavirus, End of May, 2024

 By the Numbers

It's been a couple of months since the last update.  Not much to report, and that is a good thing.

The Numbers: 

The number of hospitalizations from Covid in the US seems to have hit its peak the first week of January,  and is now in decline.  My primary source for this information has changed their information layout.  I am not finding the raw hospitalization numbers, but instead a rate per 100,000.  So I do not have a direct apples to apples with previous reports.

This last surge of Covid peaked on Jan 6, 2024 with 35,000 hospitalizations for Covid.  This is listed as 7.6 per 100,000.  The third week of March was 9,300 or 1.9 per 100,000.  For the 3rd week in May hospitalizations was just 1 per 100,000

Source Covid-19 hospitalizations here...

Dominant Variants in the US:

Various JN.1.X's  48% down from 97% two months ago.

KP.1 and 2, "Flirt", 50+%

But at least it was easy to summarize.  

Per CDC tracker...

Again, the usual headlines about the latest version  is more infectious.  How else could it grow so fast?

My 2 cents.  JN.1 mutated rapidly into 5 or more variants, and not all variants win out, making room for the Flirt to grow in the power vacuum.  But that is just my 2 cents.

Average Covid Weekly Deaths per 100,000 in the USA.

I came across this graph in the New York Times. A good answer to the efficacy of the vaccines. 

Source: Our World in Data, C.D.C. | Numbers for the group “All” are age adjusted. | By The New York Times

What this means for the 6 month period of time, a total of 3.4 of all Americans out of 100,000 died of Covid every week.  2.5 of them were unvaccinated.

Those in retirement age, 46.5 out of 100,000, 33.5 were unvaccinated.

As of Oct, 2022, 68% of Americans were fully vaccinated and boosted and 80%, at least one shot, of the general population was vaccinated.  See USAFacts.

Using the "All" row,  when 2.5 of 3.4 (73%) of the deaths come from, at most, 32% of the population.  Another way of putting it is 1/3 of the population that is was unvaccinated is 2.8 times more likely to die of Covid. An "efficacy" rating of 8.4, and 14 if you use the at 80%, least one shot rating.

Is it time for a booster shot?

On Feb. 28, 2024, the CDC recommended a booster shot for ages 65 and over.  The shot will be the same as the one issued last fall.  There probably will be a reformulated booster available in the fall.  My intention is to get a booster about a month before my next travel overseas.   See CDC Media Statement.