A Week in Politics, Late July

 A Week in Politics, July 21-28, 2024

As a political animal, I try to stay on top of current events.  As a historian, I try to keep a perspective.

But this week, wow.

That Biden would step down was something largely regarded as unthinkable.  It was considered a killer for the party in power.  Last standing president not to run was Lyndon Johnson (D), and the presidency was then decided in favor of Nixon (R).  Before that was Truman (D), and it went to Eisenhower (R).  After that it was Coolidge to Hoover, both R's. So the odds were not good.

But there seemed to be a lot of pressure from the party leaders to step down.  To the jeering for the pundits on right.

Be careful what you wish for.

As far as the news cycle is reporting, this just happened.  The decision was described as "finalized" on July 21.  This I do not believe.  

The reason I do not believe this is because the advertisements to donate to Harris were in my feeds less that a day later.  Through multiple channels.  They were polished and ready.  There was no sign that this was a slap dash put together at the last minute, but a well organized and orchestrated event.  

And she pulled in 200+ million dollars, 66% from first time donors, is evidence of how well this was done.  

Something like this requires talent and time.  Which is why I disbelieve the decision was made on July 21st.  

The timing was too perfect.  The Republicans had just ended their convention anointing Trump / Vance as their ticket.  Typically, a candidate gets a convention bounce in the polls the week after the convention.  Trump's polling was riding high on his surviving the assassination attempt, and ahead of Biden in the swing states that mattered.  He could count on a nice bounce for the following week, possibly all the way to the Democratic National Convention.  

This announcement took the wind out of his sails, in the polls, and it seems to have taken a toll on his personal morale.  His insults had no bite, his witty-in-his-own-mind stories were just sounding weird.  But I get the off the cuff commentary.  Can you imagine the same speech every day, for years.  You got to change it up.  Unfortunately for his staff writers, Trump knows best on how to play his audience. 

Meanwhile, by day 2, Harris had just about everything she needed to lock up her nomination.  By Wednesday, her approval rating was announced as higher than Trump in many of the "Battleground" states.  So Trump did not get a convention bounce, but actually declined.  All the benefit of free advertising from the assassination attempt and the RNC bounce just evaporated.

If Harris wins this election, this was the moment it happened.  It will be regarded as a master stroke.  And who engineered this master stroke?  Our cognitively challenged president, Joe Biden.  Really?  Who else?  He may be in decline, but he has never lost an general election. Ever.  For 54 years!  That doesn't just happen either.  He knows how to play this game to win.