Coronavirus, the Late July Edition
By the Numbers
The over all numbers. The number of new cases has risen dramatically. From a low average of around 12,200 per day to over 67,000. From an estimated 265,000 total cases (6/26) to over 720,000 (7/27).
We should have anticipated this. The average held steady all of June in the 12,200 new cases per day. Since there was no further decline, then a new surge was a certainly.
And while nationally, this surge is upsetting, it is surging within the unvaccinated communities. Not the vaccinated. So within those communities, it is effectively double the impact.
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Lets go over a virus's Reproduction rating (hereafter referred to as the R rating). The R rating is the number of people a virus will infect from a single infected person. The normal rating is referred to is the number in an unprotected population. This number will change depending on the environment of the virus, like quarantine or vaccination percentage, environment, or natural herd immunity.
It is the R rating that got the medical systems of the world in an uproar about Covid last year.
The Alpha variant had a rating of 4, so every infected person was going to infect 4 others. For the sake of comparison the regular flu is a 2, the Spanish flu of 1918 was a 1.8, and the C-19 Delta variant is a 5.
OK, blah, blah, blah, numbers, what does it mean?
Refer to the chart below
Virus weeks later............
0 1 2 3 4
Flu 1 2 4 8 16
Alpha 1 4 16 64 256
Delta 1 5 25 125 625
In an unrestricted environment, these are the number of infected people you will have starting at 1 person at the end of 4 weeks. The difference between the flu's R rating of 2 and Alpha's R rating of 4 is 16 times. This was THE main reason for the economic shutdown last year.
This is the potential growth of the virus, until something changes. With the flu it tends to end when the weather improves. And is mitigated by the most vulnerable getting flu shots, about 160 million in the USA in 2018. So the flu will not expand by it's natural rating of 2-1 but by closer to 1-1 in a normal season.
Now look at the difference between Alpha and Delta at 4 weeks. This more than double the number of cases over 4 weeks.
And if you are one of those who think this is total bullshit, and there are a lot of you, remember, at one time there was just 1 person that had C-19 in the USA. He arrived that arrived in Washington State on Jan 21, 2020 having traveled to a number of provinces including Wuhan. I started logging the number of active cases on Feb 2, by then there were 13 known, with quite a bit more unknown cases in the USA. Then the number of cases started tracking somewhere between the Alpha and Delta progression rates.
Number of known infected starting at
1/21/2020 and the weeks following:
0 1 2 3 4
USA Corona 1 x 35 75 541
Of course the data is far from complete. But the progression of known cases was still very dramatic. Note also, testing was done very poorly then, and these were just the cases we knew about.
Put this in perspective, In 2019 Influenza vaccinations, about 160 million, prevented an estimated 7.52 million illnesses, 3.69 million medical visits, 105,000 hospitalizations, and 6,300 deaths due to influenza.
Note 7.5 million illnesses and 6,300 deaths. That's .084%. C-19 is about .9% fatal and has about 2.7% long term disabling affects. That's 10 times as deadly, and in the end of 4 weeks, 39 times more infectious than the flu.
During this 5th surge, Los Angeles hospitals are reporting 99% of the C-19 victims have not had the vaccine. The Delta variant has found a home in the half of the population that refuse to get it. I have seen similar reports from Louisiana, Georgia and Pennsylvania.
This is how it affects all of us.
1) It is causing an increased load on the medical system.
2) C-19 hospitalizations are being paid for by the federal government. So each one of these refuse-nicks are now free loaders on the system.
3) This also allows for more churn and opportunity for the next big variant. The current Greek letter designate is Lambda, aka "Peru". At this time it is unknown if the variant Lambda is more infectious or more dangerous.
4) The Delta variant kills you faster. Where Alpha's often took 4-6 weeks to succumb, Delta takes 1-2 weeks. So the refuse-niks won't be on the medical dole as long.
5) If workers feel unsafe, they will not work. Which is why there are shortages. Dockworkers, truckers, ware houses, all are understaffed.
So, for what ever reason the vaccine refuse-nicks claim, they certainly cannot claim patriotism, or compassion for their fellow man. And if they do get the virus, it is pretty certain, they will be passing it on to their family and closest friends.
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The following is not based in fact, but derived anecdotal commentary from medical professionals. The Delta variant may be deadlier, but there is a study or two that says it's not, But it does work faster. Where Alpha cases often took 4-6 weeks to succumb, Delta takes 1-2 weeks.
Also there is much commentary about Delta patients are trending younger. My opinion that is not because Delta is targeting the young. My opinion is that the elderly have either been vaccinated (72-84%) or culled from the herd. So if the 65 and older crowd is no longer available, so of course the currently infected are going to trend younger.
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Long term efficacy of the 2 shot vaccines, Moderna and GSK seems to be holding. Of course we only have a couple of months data so far from the original test groups, and December/January early adopters. But at 6 months, the vaccine seems to have only degraded about 3% from 95 in 6 months. Giving hope that a booster would not be required against currently known variants.
The Chinese vaccine, has been reported to be totally ineffective after 6 months. That does not effect the USA and Europe, but woe betide the rest of the world.
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The J&J single shot seems to be not as effective against the Delta variant. One report I saw stated it was only 56% effective. Just one so far. From Jerusalem. Normally I would give the Israeli's more credit, but have seen some contrary information from them regarding the pandemic.
But do not panic over this. Even at 56%, it still reduces symptoms substantially.
But please, if you are concerned, or are showing any of the major symptoms (fever, shortness of breath, fatigue, body aches) mask up and see your doctor.
Remember, I am just some guy on the internet. I'm trying to do good, but I am not a medical professional.
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From an on line conversation. "Variants are never as deadly as the original."
"Have you heard of the Spanish flu?"
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