Coronavirus, The Early October Edition

Coronavirus, The Early October Edition 

By the Numbers 

The Numbers:

The number of new cases went into a steep decline starting around Sept 21. Nationwide, about 3-4.75% drops in new cases every day has been observed. In just one week the estimated number of active cases nationwide went from 3 million to 2.5 million.

Then it stopped declining. In the last week, there has been a very slight growth in the daily new cases, about .5% growth every day, causing the total cases to hover around 2.35 million. 20 states are still in a decline, the remaining are increasing their daily new cases. Overall, the states hit the hardest by this surge have had the greatest decline. Alabama, Florida, Arkansas Mississippi all have seen weekly declines of 20% or more.

States that were declining, are now surging again.  Michigan(12,200), New Hampshire (2,317), Kansas(3,030), Idaho(8,310) and Minnesota(19,300) all have seen 50% increases last week.

In Pennsylvania the number of new cases has been increasing by about 1% per day. Averaging 4,900 last week and has reported the largest single daily number for this surge last week at 6,289.

I think the cause is the churn of the schools. PA Department of Health reported that from 9/8 to 9/14 7,218 cases of Covid was identified in children. The following week it was 7,352. 10 times the cases in children last year for the same time periods. Compare that to PA's weekly numbers around 33,000, that is a serious addition.

I have no reason to believe other states are any different.

So it seems that Covid in Adults are in decline, but children are now picking up slack.

Vaccination Rates Increase:

In Pennsylvania, the number of at least partially vaccinated adults hit 85% at the end of September. Up from about 68% in August. PA Department of health reported that 95% of the Covid hospitalizations and 97% of the deaths were among the unvaccinated. Fear seems to be a good motivator.

This was reported in the "Patch".

Nationwide, the number of vaccinated has gone from 67% in July to 72% by mid September. About 13 million more Americans.  Segway too...

Is Partial Vaccinated Enough?

According to Wisconsin Department of Health Services, no.  Their count of hospitalizations by Covid for partially vaccinated people is 9 times that of fully vaccinated.  See here for their report.

It makes that 5% Covid hospitalization rate for vaccinated look even better if 9 out of 10 had not yet had their second jab.

Masks in School or Not?

The CDC published a study in Arizona schools. Schools that had masks enforced were 3.5 times less likely to have a Covid outbreak those that did not.  See here for details.