Coronavirus, Late July Edition, 2022

Coronavirus, Late July Edition, 2022

By the Numbers

The Numbers: 

Nationwide, the estimated number of cases, using official numbers, have been creeping upward to around  1,100,000.  The estimated under count is unknown.  But could still range from 3 to 10 times the number of officially infected. 

More in keeping with reality, the number of people hospitalized with Covid is also climbing.  To about 38,000 for this week, up from 27,000 last report, 10,000 in April. The peak was 150,000 in January.

Vaccines weaken, but still do very well:

In Pennsylvania, over the first 5 months of this year, the ratio of hospitalized patients with COVID, vaccinated to unvaccinated was 19 to 81.  The overall population ratio is 84% vaccinated with at least one shot, to 16% unvaccinated.

Multiply that out, if you are vaccinated, even minimally so, you are 24 times less likely to be hospitalized with COVID, as the unvaccinated.

It has been noted that among the vaccinated and hospitalized group, that most of them have not had a recent booster.  See PA Gov PostVaccination Data for this year.

This is reinforced by a recent report from the CDC which states in this year, for those over 50, 94% of the deaths with Covid are unvaccinated.   See Here...

Ninja Sub Variant:

The press needs descriptive keywords, but haven't settled on one for Covid-19 Variant BA.5.  Ninja and Deltacron are battling it out for market share.  Apparently BA.5 is even more able to dodge antibodies, and more infectious still, to the point where the R number seems no longer relevant to report.  Unlike other Omicron's, BA.5's symptoms are more like Delta, in that it settles deeper in the lungs.  Making it more dangerous than Omicron.  

Similar to the common cold, the Omicron's do not provoke a long term immune response from the body, so reinfection rate with the Omicrons is higher than previous variants.

BA.5 is now the dominant variant in the US. Possibly the world.  Japan has hit their peak, ever, number of Covid cases this week with this variant.

Long Covid

A study of Long Covid cases shows that the odds of getting Long Covid double with each reinfection.  There are already many cases of reinfections of BA5 alone. 

Reinfection Causing More Long Covid:

There was a very large study was done comparing a pool of 5.7 million US veterans and against a control group of 5.4 million civilians that had not had COVID yet. 

To quote the study, "The exact increase in risk from reinfection depends on the particular disorder in question—and whether you’ve been vaccinated and boosted. Broadly speaking, however, the likelihood of heart and clotting problems, fatigue and lung damage roughly doubles each time you catch COVID".

See Here...

Update, Expiration date, Government Issued Tests:

In my last posting I mentioned that the newest set of tests I received from the government had an expiration date of Aug, 2022.  It turns out this was just a labeling problem on the box.  The box said 8/22, but the packaging in the box were labeled April, 2024. 

New Vaccination Tech on the Horizon.

I heard this on a podcast put out by Skeptics Guide to the Universe*, aka "SGU", episode 887, and verified by an article by the Lancet.  Nano particles have been developed to deliver up to 60 different vaccines at one time.  It is described as a "cage" that the active ingredients are attached to.  I am envisioning a styrofoam block that a florist uses for displays.  

The idea is to supply a range of vaccines vice just 1 to 3, like is done with the flu, in order to cover all the bases for a rapidly evolving virus, or one, like the flu, we don't know which one will come to dominate this season.

Tested in mice, where the control group had 100% fatality to exposure to a version of C-19.  Another group was inoculated with this nano particle with 5 different variants, one of the variants was the variant the mice were infected with.  The mice all lived.  

Most significantly, a third group was inoculated a cage with 5 different variants, and then infected with 2 different variants.  None of the variants or infections were exact matches,  IE, it was a scattershot approach, but this group had a high survival rate.

Tests have since been performed on primates to good effect.    Human trials have been started.

Omicron Specific Vaccine Update.

Up to now the only vaccine available has been created on the original C-19, the boosters are just a half power version of the same vaccine.  Since then C-19 has evolved to a number of iterations, much faster than our process to update the vaccines.  

Everyone is working on a Omicron specific vaccine, and both Phizer an Moderna are in Phase 2 out of 3 trials.  The Pfizer site is stating that the vaccine effectiveness is good against the current BA3/5 versions of Omicron, with more data forthcoming.

The hope is these will be available this fall.

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* I heartily recommend putting the SGU on your pod cast list.  They do a great job of providing up to date information on current science related news, and debunking current crap about UFO's, Covid/Vaccine deniers etc...