Sunday, July 30, 2023

Coronavirus, Very Late July, 2023

 Coronavirus, Very Late July, 2023

 By the Numbers

The Numbers: 

The weekly hospitalization numbers with Covid was 7,100 last week.  It was at 7,000 in early June, and dipped to about 6,200 in between.  Which could be due to school being out, and the little ones not churning the pot as much.

Source Covid-19 hospitalizations here...

Dominant Variants in the US: 

    XBB's  83%    Down from 97%  in June
    EG.5  11.5%  Up from zero in
June

    And the rest...

The XBB variant is immune to treatment with monoclonal antibodies.

Per CDC tracker...

Covid Summer Bump

The main Covid news is about the increase in Covid hospitalized cases reported late this month.  Explanations as to why range from new variants to increased traveling. 

My theory, and it is just my theory, is that our Covid immunity is timing out.  The body has has two types of immune memory.  One is short term, like with the common cold or flu, and the other is long term, like mumps and measles.  Our body's defenses treat Covid like a cold and relegate it to short term memory.  So the 4th booster shots and last major surges in December are timing out.  Combined with increased exposure through things like air travel and other normal human behavior, and you have a bump.

What is Variant EG.5?

It looks like Omicron variant XBB's dominance is being challenged by the EG.5 Variant.  My observations are that if a variant hits 5% against the champ, that it will become dominant in the future.  Again, that is just my opinion.  

EG.5 is variant of XBB.1,9.2.  With an extra spike mutation, which rates a different alphabet designation.  There is no increase in cases or deaths or that infections involving the virus are more severe.

Excess Deaths (good news)

The Excess Deaths indicator lags real time by a few months, as it takes time to assemble all the information.  It was one of the indicators used to shut down the Covid deniers arguments that Covid was being excessively counted.  If anything, the number of deaths caused by Covid was under counted by several hundred thousand.  See here, around the 3rd page.

At its peak, the excess deaths in the US was over 30% than it should have been.  Most of 2022 was 8%.   Since February, 2023, the number has hit zero, and possibly gone a bit into the negative numbers.

The virus isn't gone, as about 80 people die each day from/with Covid.  Out of an average of 7,700 total deaths per day.  So those of us with immune deficiencies need to take their normal precautions.  As they would anyway to protect themselves from every other communicable disease.  

The Next Vaccine

I have not found any real information about the next vaccine to be available for this fall.  I have seen recommendations of what it could be, but nothing real.

All the original vaccines have been retired.  The current one available is a bivalent version of both the original and the original Omicron variant BA.4.  





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