Coronavirus, Mid January, 2023
By the Numbers
Like checks, time to change the template date to 2023...
The Numbers:
Nationwide, the estimated number of cases, using official numbers, is dropping From 418,000 on Dec 28 to 300,000 on Jan 12. The official numbers continue be
under-counted by a factor of 3-10, depending on the source of the
estimate.
More
in keeping with reality, the number of people hospitalized with Covid
for this wave is still increasing from around 34,800 to 41,300 for around the
same time period.
The New York Times Interactive graph ( It can be found here...) has slightly different numbers and is reporting a slight rise in the number of cases. My source may not be as accurate as theirs, but I'll stick with it because it is an easy scrape, and is good enough. This is more about trends than anything else.
Dominant Variants in the US:
BQ's 55% Dropping 7 points
BA.5 4.4% half of the previous percentage.
BF.7's 4% Half the previous percentage
XBB 32% up from 18 last report
BN.1 3.0% Holding steady
Of note is the XBB variant, which is immune to treatment with monocolonal antibodies.
Per CDC tracker...
What's is Happening in China?
Frankly, we don't really know. Every article is full of hyperbole, derived from far from complete facts. I have been focused on the US, and only payed half an ear to China.
China's much maligned "Zero Covid" Policy, IMHO, has been way over-vilified in the press. China has been doing what needed to be done to stamp out the virus, because with 1.5 billion people, it would have cut a swath through the country like no other. Shutdowns of whole cities. Patrols put out to enforce the shut downs as only the 2nd* most tyrannical government in the world could.
Detractors said they failed. That would depend on how success is measured. Did they eradicate the virus in their population? No. Did they control the outbreak to some minimal level? The evidence implies yes. Did they control the outbreak when the variants were most lethal? Yes.
Of course, we do not have any real evidence. Worldpedia reported China yesterday as having only 5,243 new cases yesterday, about the same as Texas. While the NY Post reported 37 ..., MILLION new cases. Do I believe China's numbers? No. They rescinded their Zero Policy around Dec 7. Shanghai reported 35,000 new cases in one day earlier this month. I also cannot accept the Post's numbers, as there is no corroborating numbers elsewhere. According to one article, 87% of China's over 65 population is vaccinated. And about 40% of the remaining population. But vaccinated with what? China's vaccines, and there are 5 of them, are not mRNA, like ours. And articles written in other countries that used them put their effectiveness at around 50% compared to the mRNA's over 95%.
No matter the official numbers, China's hospitals are now being flooded with cases. Which implied the draconian measures in place for two years did work at keeping the virus under control. But was it worth the economic cost? That is a debate that will go on for decades.
The Variants in China are mainly BN and BQ series, both Omicron descendants. With an outlier variant labeled SVV, of which I am not finding any information on.
In summary, China managed to defer the pandemic while the most deadly forms of Covid existed, and is now dealing with the far milder version against a well vaccinated population. But like anything in China, that population multiplier is going to magnify the human misery by a couple of decimal points.
Covid Test Expiration Dates.
Covid test kits have a shelf life. We just don't know how long it is. As such, the FDA has
been running efficacy tests as time goes by, and has extended the
shelf-life of all iHealth tests (in an orange and white box) from 6 months to 12 months.
They will announce further, 3 month extensions if their testing warrants it. You can check your expiration date by lot number here.More Anti-Vax Lies.
I started this regular update on the state of the pandemic because I had the time and the skills to stay current on the news, and hopefully provide guidance to those who were less technically savvy.
The first thing I ran into was the wealth of disinformation out there, and so my second mission was to provide counterpoints to the covid deniers. Using the numbers as my guide. I went to battle with the internet trolls. First the covid deniers, then their follow-on's, anti-vaxers. My thought was that this was about life and death, and it was a hill I was willing to die on.
I haven't heard a lot from the anti-vax group lately, but I wasn't really looking, and Social Media adjusted their algorithms to minimize their penetration into the main stream. But their vehemence still exists on off brand forums and media.
But listening to the British Podcast, "More of Less", made me aware the anti-vax movement is still alive and well. Jan 11, 2023 episode here.
So we come to 24 year old Damar Hamlin, a football player for the Buffalo Bill's. He had a heart attack on the field on Jan 2. And 10's of thousands of fans got to witness how CPR really works. It wasn't Hollywood. The trainer, DennyKellington, kept Hamlin alive for 7 minutes until the professionals could arrive.
A day later Tucker Carlson made the claim that there was a "disturbing trend of athletes having heart attacks on the fields" and backed it up with some damning numbers.
Quoting Mr. Carlson, “Cardiologist Peter McCullough and researcher Panagis Polykretis looked into this trend in Europe, European sports leagues. They found that prior to COVID and the COVID-19 vaccines there were roughly 29 cardiac arrests in those European sports leagues per year,” Fox’s Tucker Carlson claimed in a segment Tuesday night. “Since the vax campaign began, there have been more than 1,500 total cardiac arrests in those leagues and two-thirds of those were fatal.”
Where do these numbers come from? The 29 number was from The International Olympic Committee in Lausanne, Switzerland, which studied documents from international data banks from 1966 to 2004. Those documents indicate 1,101 sudden deaths in athletes under 35 years of age, an average of 29 athletes per year, the sports with the highest incidence being soccer and basketball. This can be considered good science.
The 1,500 number, and currently it is up to 1,653, comes from this article written in the blog, goodsciencing. The article is here...
And they have decided to back up their numbers. They actually have a list of the 1,653 victims.
Remember, the first study is of athletes, under 35, participating in sport. And contrary to Mr. Carlson's claims, the 1,600 listed victims are not "in those leagues".
The site's list of victims attributed to Covid Vaccination induced heart attacks. Some of the names you will recognize.
Pele (81), former soccer star was vaccinated March 2021, then diagnosed
with colon cancer September 2021 and was admitted to hospital again
December 2021. He had prostate surgery in 2015. Notably, he was not in those leagues for over 40 years.
Hank Aaron (86), former Pro Baseballer received his COVID vaccine on
January 5th, 2021 to demonstrate the safety of the vaccine and encourage
other black Americans to do the same. Died two weeks later in his
sleep – listed as natural causes. And never was in those leagues.
Stewart Bondi (age 69), very keen runner from Devon, England and a founder
of a tough marathon on the South West Coast Path. His nickname was
“Rambo.” His body was found by the cliffs on the coast after an apparent
fall.
Curtis Robert Pettigrew (49), known as Bobby or Big Bob, former Wildkats
star, shotput champion and Kokomo High School assistant coach for 15
years and Howard County Sports Hall of Famer died in a car accident.
One survivor on the list and an actual member of those leagues, was playing football, and there was a pile up event with him at the bottom. His ribs cracked, collapsed his lungs, and he was taken to hospital. But GoodScience blames the vaccine.
While there are many younger, actual athletes, doing athletic things on this list. They are drawn from the entire world, where as the Olympic Committee was only looking at a professional and semi professional groups playing from a group of sports, in Europe.
This list is a compilation of anyone who's obituary had something sports related in their history that collapsed or died in a year, and then they claim the massive 5,600% increase in athletes events. It's an apples to oranges comparison.
Which was repeated by Tucker Carlson, and is probably believed by his loyal fanbase.
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*or 3rd, an argument can be made for 4th. North Korea and Burma are up there.
