Coronavirus, Mid February, 2021
By the Numbers
If you live in Pennsylvania,
to find out if you are eligible for the vaccine, the website is: https://covidportal.health.pa.gov/s/Your-Turn
For everyone else, you’ll have to look up your own state. Every state is different.
The holiday surges are
receding. From my estimated peak of 5.4
million active cases on Jan 17 to 2.6 million on Feb 18. This is about the same level Nov 15, when the
number of active cases was growing about 3% per day. The mortality rate, a seriously lagging indicator, has dropped to around 2,500
daily. About where we were in early
December.
The number of new active cases has dropped dramatically, to about the same level as mid October. There is no clear consensus why this is so.
The reasons postulated:Strong winter weather.
Immunized population growing.
The number of people especially vulnerable to the virus, for whatever reason, have gotten it, so there are fewer available easy targets.
All of these reasons have
flaws in their logic and against evidence.
People suddenly “getting it”?
There is no evidence to support that ever happens, let alone
suddenly. Strong winter weather? Then why is this happening in India as
well? Immunized population growing? Maybe, but at most 4% of the population
immunized by vaccine, and maybe 20 million recovered and in the immune response
range, we are still only about 12% immune, far under the 70-80% range for herd
immunity. Fewer easy targets? I don’t know, there is no studies one way or
the other there. It seems if that is the case the first surge should have burned through them eliminating the second surge.
Synergistic combination of all the reasons? It would have to be a multiplier, not just additive. So I have no explanation and would be willing to listen to others.
In the US, at least 36 million have received 1 dose of the vaccine, and about 12 million the second. This does not 100% prevent you from actually getting Covid, but reduces the percentage dramatically, and if you do get it, your symptoms and length of illness will be far less. So wearing masks is still a requirement to prevent transmission to other until the numbers are significantly better.
On giving blood: I have taken this time of isolation to donate blood regularly.
If you have been given the vaccine, you have to tell the Red Cross which one you have received. There is no wait time for the vaccine manufactured by AstraZeneca, Janssen/J&J, Moderna, Novavax, or Pfizer.
However, eligible blood donors who received a live attenuated COVID-19 vaccine or do not know what type of COVID-19 vaccine they received must wait two weeks before giving blood.
On Hydroxychloroquine: I have not weighed in on the Hydroxychloroquine (here after referred to as HCQ) argument because it was clearly just a political endorsement by a serial liar speaking without the benefit of consul by his chief medical advisor. And frankly, with the vaccine rolling out, this should be a dead issue. But there have been several unsolicited interjections of HCQ in my comms that I decided to look into it a bit more.
Every study regarding HCQ last year has either proved no efficacy, or was invalid due to a lack of a control group. Some studies involved dangerous dosages with harmful results.
Even as late as January, 2021, you can find articles that the drug is ineffective against C-19 in prestigious journals such as The Lancet and the New England Journal of Medicine.
And all this time the supporters of the drug are claiming “you aren’t doing it right.”
In the Journal of Medical Association there is a new study that shows some efficacy, providing it is started early enough. Preferably before you even know you have the virus. Once you are hospitalized, there is no benefit at all.
Operative text reads: " 1) when started late in the hospital course and for short duration's of time, antimalarials appear to be ineffective, 2) when started earlier in the hospital course, for progressively longer durations and in outpatients, antimalarials may reduce the progression of disease, prevent hospitalization, and are associated with reduced mortality"
Caveat: I am not a doctor, or a medical professional, I am basing my opinion on my understanding of studies performed by doctors, and reviewed in prestigious journals. I would suggest if you have a doctor prescribing HCQ after a diagnosis of Covid, that you get a second opinion. If he is suggesting it as a preventative without a diagnosis, then that is <lower case> ok. It is taken as an antimalarial throughout the world safely, and can cause no harm in recommended doses.
No comments:
Post a Comment