Coronavirus, Early February, 2021

 Coronavirus, Early February, 2021

By the Numbers

Deceptive Vaccine Headlines:  I have seen a number of headlines that read "something" disheartening about the vaccine, only to open it up and find that it is just that, a headline, that technically is true, but totally deceptive. 

For Example:  17-year-old was hospitalized in an ICU unit after receiving second coronavirus vaccine dose.  Totally true.  However the text notes this was after 2 days and has intense chest pains and nothing else.  Not even an implied cause and effect other than the headline.  And it happened in another country, and so not likely one of our vaccines.

Another one screamed about a doctor being hospitalized after getting the vaccine, and the article pointed out it was a week later, and the hospitalization was not vaccine related.

Then there is the nurse that was the first in the USA to receive the vaccine, getting the virus a week later.  Lunatic fringe groups are now claiming she died.  The clamor is so much, the hospital has presented her several times to the media.

Think about the probability.  The mortality rate of the USA at 18 people per million, per day. 

We have injected the vaccine into 35 million as of this writing.  Probability suggests that 630 of them have died on today alone.  Doesn’t matter which day, pick any one.

“Virus cases are falling more sharply in the U.S. than at any previous point.”  Another absolutely true, and totally misleading headline.  The day before the NYT published this, we had 151,000 new cases, down from the 301,000 peak on Jan 8.  What is buried in the text is that in September, we had 36,000 new cases per day.  So, down 50% from peak, but up 420% from Summer.  It all depends on the emotion you want to convey.

So don’t get excited by headlines.  Read the article.  The headlines can, and do, give you a false impression. 

On AntiVaxers:   The antivax conversation has been in the chatter since at least last summer.  Initially it was extremist rhetoric in an era of having no choice anyway.  With the existence of a vaccine it has now become a concern for those whose personal threshold of risk is lower than average.  My opinion on them is to “let it go”.   Statistically, as long as vaccines don’t go wanting for lack of arms, this not something to be concerned about.

The whole plan is about the percentages.  To me, it doesn’t affect the infection count one wit if someone passes on the vaccine and another gets it in their stead.  The overall protection of the herd has increased.  So until almost everyone is vaccinated, it is not worth the argument. 

In truth, it just raises the angst level of the population and we don’t need that either.

Their concerns are valid.  These vaccines have not been tested to the level they would in a normal world.  We do not know the long term effects.  This time around, the whole world is on “3^rd stage trials”.  And if your risk aversion is not up to it, then so be it. 

Next year, there will be a headline somewhere about someone refusing to be vaccinated giving Corona to his dear old auntie, whose immune system wouldn’t permit it as well.  With billions of people and millions of reporters looking, it is going to happen.  But so are two people passing it on to each other because it is only 95% effective.  So the odds would be 1 in 400.  But what we won’t see anymore is C-19 being passed on in super spreader events. 

An anecdotal example:  My wife has a lower risk level than I.  I see it in a number of things.  She starts getting antsy when the gas tank is at ¼ full.  I drive to ‘E’.  But then, she has run out of gas a few times, me only once, and at that time I was able to coast to the next gas station.  And there is a big culture difference between a helpless woman at the side of the road and a 6’ 2” foot male.  So her concern is valid.

She also restocks toilet paper when a fresh case is broken open.  Or when it’s on sale.  I figure each of the three bath rooms has 4 rolls available, and will wait till the fresh case has been distributed.  FYI, when the hoarding of TP was a thing last year, we were still on November’s supply which ran to June. :)

On Herd Immunity:

There is a real world example that trying to reach “Herd Immunity” through natural means is not a good idea.  Brazil’s overall leadership is following the Trump model, including denial, expectation of a miracle and promoting treatments that do not work. 

Manaus, a city in Brazil of some 2 million people, had 2/3rds of their population infected by June of last year.  Also noted during the April – June period, they were the first city in Brazil to dig mass grave sites getting there.  By the end of June the C-19 infections did go to a minimum level and they largely went back to normal behavior believing they had achieved “Herd Immunity.”  Starting in September, however, what immunity that was conferred started wearing off.  Currently their death rate is 200 per day, in a city where 40 per day were considered normal.  As compared to the USA where the death rate is 18 per million per day.  (see previous comments about headlines)

There is no hard number as to what constitutes Herd Immunity, but estimates range from 70-85%.  So 66% isn’t quite there, but was considered good enough. 

The reason is the type of protection the body’s immune system uses against C-19.  The body has long term protection plans and short term protection plans.  For what ever reason, C-19 is being treated as a short term plan by the body, like the common cold.  And so the protection generated by the body after natural exposure seems to last 3-6 months.  The theory is that if the body regarded every infection as long term, we would be nothing but immune system libraries. 

Other News:

Merck has canceled its vaccine project, citing disappointing test results.

Johnson and Johnson are posting good news with their trials.  They are posting that their vaccine prevented 66% of moderate and severe cases, and 85% of severe cases, 100% hospitalizations and deaths.  The chief advantage of the J&J vaccine is that it is one shot and done.  I have conflicting reports on when it will be available.  J&J are saying March.  Another report says next (Jan31-Feb 7) week. 

Novavax, an American firm, has passed clinical trials with its vaccine tested in Britain and South Africa.  The company announced its results on January 28th. In the British trial, the Novavax vaccine was nearly 90% effective against symptomatic covid-19 when given in two doses 21 days apart. In South Africa, however, the same regimen was only 60% effective (and down to 49% when people with HIV were included)—though these figures are still preliminary and may change)

Of all the current approved vaccine regimens, there is not a single known death from C-19 for anyone that has had the vaccine. And the number of cases of hospitalization required if C-19 is caught is way down. 

A couple of weeks ago Pennsylvania announced it would be offering the vaccine to the next priority tier (1B).  This was based on the Trump Administration recommendation.  However it has since come to light that the federal stockpile was depleted and could not support the additional load this entailed.  So PA is back to tier 1A.

The number of new infections has declined somewhat.  To around 125,000 per day, down from their peak of 300,000 in early January.  This puts us about where we were in early-November.  But the death rate, a lagging indicator, hovered at around 4,000 per day, only dropping to 3,000 per day in February.  This is actually raising the mortality rate for the first time since April, 2020.  Last month, the mortality rate was around .8%, it is now closer to 1.5%.  I assume hospital overload is the cause of this. 

Updates on the new strains:

The mutation from the UK is called Kent.  It spreads faster than the original version, and is no less lethal, and is becoming the dominant strain in the UK.  Fortunately, the current vaccines should handle it.

The other prominent version is called South Africa.  It spreads faster than the original version, and is no less lethal.  It is more resistant to anti-bodies used to target it, reducing the effectiveness of the vaccine.

Some headlines will mention these are deadlier versions, and from the point of view they spread more easily, they are.  But at this time, they do not show higher mortality rates if you catch one of them.  At the risk of repeating myself, vaccinated people that do catch C-19, even the South Africa mutation, are shown to have much lighter symptoms, and so far, no deaths.

Both strains have been found in the US.  Tracking efforts have failed to determine how they got here.  (Spontaneous Generation?)

Modura is reworking their vaccine to deal with these variants.

In the US, 35 million have received the first dose of the vaccine.  About 8 million the second dose.  We are currently tracking for 75% of the population to be immunized by September.

Boiler Plate:

We hit 450,000 deaths before months end.  The surge from the gatherings during Christmas peaked on Jan 8^th at over 300,000 new cases.  For most of January, the daily death count was over 4,000 a day, where it still hovers to this day.  Depending on your state, the current growth in new cases is between 5 and 10 times what it was in September.  In my state, Pennsylvania, from 700 new cases per day in September to 10,000 on Jan 8, before settling down to 3,700 on Jan 31.

The total number of active cases on Feb 4, I estimate* to be at 4.15 million, even though on the CDC website it is listed as 11 million.  This is up from an estimated 850,000 in September using the same methodology, and down from a peak of 5.3 million on January 19 -20.

*Since the states have done a lousy job of keeping up with "recovered" patients, the official active case count is inaccurate, but you can't just ignore the CDC numbers.  They are the official ones.

To deal with this problem I am using a formula.  The virus runs around 21 days, so I count up the last 21 days of new cases, and multiply by 6% to account for ICU cases which can take up to 6 weeks.  This gives me an estimate of active cases.  This may be a bit on the high side.  But I am probably within 20% of "real".  I feel this gives a better consistent result.  I am more interested in the percentage increase/decrease than the exact number.