Coronavirus, Late March Edition, 2022

 Coronavirus, Late March Edition, 2022

By the Numbers

 

The Numbers:

On Mar 23, we dipped below a 400,000 active cases.  Down from a million on Mar 2 and 10 million on Jan 21.   But the daily new case rate of decline is also dropping, on Wednesday it was just -.8% per day, down from 5.5% for most of February. So it looks like we have hit the bottom of the curve and from there it is most likely going to turn up.  All ready 17 states are now trending upwards.

Stealth Omicron:

I mentioned the next major variant, BA.2, in my mid February edition.   It has now been dubbed, "Stealth Omicron".  It is out competing the original Omicron variant, and is now the dominant variant in Europe, and fueling the current surge there, where as here, the numbers are still in decline.  

 

In the past, the US tends to follow Europe by 4 or so weeks, and based on that, we may experience a "Son of Omicron" surge shortly.  My logging of the new cases is showing a bottoming out of the drop  in new cases.  See above.

In the North East states, BA.2 is now 50% of the new cases.  This is reflected in the curve of new cases, which, as mentioned, which nation wide has been declining at a ever decreasing rate.  But has already trending upward in a few states.  Kentucky +90% at 1,100 new cases daily, Arkansas +31% at 606.  New York +25% at 2,337 lead the growth.  The next 3 highest are Michigan, Massachusetts and Vermont at less than 9% growth and small numbers.  And where the country is still in decline between -10 to -90% (Texas and Hawaii) over the last two weeks.

From Fortune article.

Fourth Jab:

Is a fourth dose needed?  We are entering the time frame where a fourth vaccine dose is being bandied about.  January studies show minimal increased efficacy.   A February study noted "low vaccine" efficacy against infections of healthy people.  

 

The CDC is reporting 78% effectiveness 4 months after the 3rd shot.  The threshold for being considered effective is 65%

In My Humble Opinion, it's too soon to punch your frequent Covid card.

 

 

Ivermectin (again):

Another study testing Ivermectin (read: horse pill) against Covid, and again it proved to be ineffective.

 

The study was on nearly 500 patients in a double blind study.  Among 241 patients who received ivermectin, 52 developed severe COVID-19, compared to 43 of 249 patients who did not take the drug.

 

About half the participants were fully vaccinated and of them, 17.7% in the ivermectin group and 9.2% in the control group developed severe disease.  From the article published in WebMD.