Coronavirus, by the numbers, as I see it. Late October

Coronavirus, by the numbers, as I see it.  Late October

In mid September, I started tracking New Cases, in addition to Active cases.  So I have better figures on how fast the virus is growing.

By the end of September, the number of new cases was about 40,000 per day.

The rate of increase of new cases per day is accelerating.  From 2% at the beginning of October to 4% per day.  That means the doubling rate of new cases has gone from 36 days to 18 and it shows in the final count of over 91,000 new cases on October 29 alone. 

Back in April, the numbers reached a high of 35,000.  This settled down to about 30,000 per day through May, peaking again to 35,000 in the South East and Arizona in July, then settled down again to 25,000 per day in August.

So it is safe to say, the virus is spreading faster now than ever, straining the medical system ever more.  Some hospitals, even regions, are at 90% hospital.

Treatment techniques have improved, so the mortality rate is way down, from 25% in Feb/Mar to just over 1% today.   However the increased load is going to affect that.

Vaccine news remains unchanged.  At least 5 US companies are working on one, several are in large scale testing.  A couple has been stopped to examine what could be problems with the vaccine, but they have all been restarted.  The best hope is one will be available by year’s end, with large scale distribution no earlier than 6/2021. 

Some companies most affected, like Broadway plays, are setting expectations for even later. 

There is no permanent immunity.  The body treats this virus like the common cold instead of mumps or small pox.  Since August, there are clear and traceable cases that are without a doubt C-19 reinfection, with some fatalities.  A Russian scientist who had the disease in February, reinfected himself in an experiment to determine how long the antibodies last, and for him, it was 3 months.  News from Russia is not trustworthy, so you can take this with a grain of salt.

If you get the virus and are hospitalized, and uninsured, the Federal government will pick up the bill.  This was part of the CARES Act passed earlier this year.  Below is a link to a news article on the topic:

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/10/22/925942412/hospital-bills-for-uninsured-covid-19-patients-are-covered-but-no-one-tells-them

Both cats and dogs can catch Covid.  It had been reported previously that dogs were immune, but with experimentation that has been proven untrue, but I have not seen any articles that it has actually happened naturally.   All that can be said is that dogs are highly resistant, cats less so.  No tests have been done on birds and fish 😊

The excess death rate continues to track above the C-19 deaths.  Even though deaths from common causes, like flu and automobile accidents have dropped.  This implies many deaths not attributed to Covid really are.

Interesting note, automobile fatalities are down by 2% in 2020 over 2019, but fatalities per miles traveled are up.  So far in 2020, the number of miles traveled are down 16.6% .  Clearer roads have led to more risky driving behaviors.  Which, is normal human behavior.