Coronavirus, by the numbers, as I see it. Late July

 Coronavirus, by the numbers, as I see it.  Late July

During this pandemic I studied one unit of measure. The current number of active cases.  Counter arguments have implied this is the wrong way to look at it.  So I have spent some time pondering my methodology.

The counter arguments point out that the numbers are bogus to begin with.  Often supported by some news article about this or that state ignoring important facets of the tests.  And there is no doubt this has happened and the numbers skewed.  But, I am looking at a homogenization 59 reporting bodies and they are a homogenization of at least 6,000 data points.  One off errors in reporting, even by a whole state, doesn’t change the statistics by more than 2%. 

And the argument that 59 reporting bodies just spontaneously created this as fake news to make Trump look bad is patently absurd.   

The most compelling point is to look at the mortality rate.  That comparing New York, the former #1 infected state to Florida, the current champion, needs to also compare the mortality rate. 

                Active Cases                       Deaths                  Mortality

                                                                Per million          resolved cases

NY          152,000                                 1,670                     11%

NJ           56,000                                   1,780                     12%

Florida   325,000                              242                         11 %

Texas    167,000                                 148                         2.2%

Arizona  127,000                               401                         13%

Pennsylvania 23,281                        555                         8.4%

Idaho    11,192                                   71                           2.6%

Nationwide  2,000,000                    438                         7.25%

 

Note:  I wrote this up a week ago, so the numbers are a bit dated.

 

I originally started this list just to compare NY to Florida.  But added other states of interest to me for reasons of other conversations I am having elsewhere. 

 

So anyone looking at the list at deaths per million thinks Florida, despite having more than double the current number of active cases, is doing a better job than NY with 1/7^th the deaths per million, the population of both states are close to 20 million.  But New York has resolved (survived or died) almost 300,000 cases, and those are the only cases to compare the dead to, and so NY’s mortality rate is 11%.  Florida has only resolved 45,000 cases, and has a matching mortality rate of 11%.

Nationwide, the current mortality rate was 438 per million, or 7.25% of the resolved cases. 

That 7% figure is tracking downwards due to a number of reasons.  Since the numbers include earlier higher averages (25% initially) which will drag that number upwards till more cases resolve that will pull it downwards.  Per the CDC, last week’s mortality percentage is 6.4%.  I have seen some commentary that the curve on the mortality rate looks like it is going to settle in at 4.6%.  I have had not seen any correlative evidence of this.  And since 4.6% is lower than Germanys 4.8%, I suspect it is wishful thinking.  But New Zealand’s rate is 1.6%, so a lower number is possible.

Deaths is the ultimate lagging indicator, and is really only valid as a “current state of being” for states that have had time to develop the statistics.  A number of people are claiming the low deaths per million of the sparsely populated states is due to superior medical treatments.  Based on the numbers I see, they may have a point.  Let’s hope so.

Some of the more educated, mask-denying, I will not live in fear, and/or freedom loving people will insist that I am not using the correct denominator in the calculations.   They insist I should use Total Known Cases vice Resolved Cases.  Which will generate a mortality rate closer to what they want to hear.  First, that is adding in unknowns into the equation as the fate of Total Cases will include both deaths and survived.  Second, even if I did, the most the percentage would drop is by half.  It’s not the .001% number they want to see. 

The last serious argument I have had to look at was with the Excess Deaths crowd.  How many are dead this year over last?  If the Excess Deaths are +/- 3%, then Coronavirus is a non-starter.  We are just seeing statistical variations.  But another reason for this argument is that it is a bit more invisible, and so an easy one to stand on, because it’s all conjecture.  The irony is the same group of people will not consider conjectures, also referred to as data models, on their other political talking points.

But, as it turns out, these numbers are available; the CDC keeps a running count, and has been for years!

Since end of March, 2020, and for every week till now, we are above the expected death count.  Both in raw numbers and percentages.  Worst week was April 11 with 40% extra deaths, over 23,000 people.  The numbers have improved every week since.  This chart’s accuracy lags by up to two weeks for various bureaucratic reasons.  When I added up the excess deaths from March to July 11, the number was around 151,000, higher than the official death count by Covid-19 on that day of 147,000.

See:  https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm#dashboard

My conclusion is to keep monitoring the number of active cases.  It is from this number, all the other numbers are eventually derived.