Coronavirus, by the numbers, as I see it. Early October

Coronavirus, by the numbers, as I see it.  Early October

It has been 6 or more weeks since my last update.  I started writing this 3 weeks ago, but it was a lot of samo-samo, so I wasn’t going bore you with the details.  Then yesterday, the world changed.

First the nuts and bolts:

The OFFICIAL number of ACTIVE cases is in a slight decline, about -.1% per day.  I stopped believing the official active case count as an accurate reflection, because many reporting states were not updating their recovered counts.  Worst case was Florida, which peaked at over 500,000 active cases, and for the longest time had no recoveries.  Other states tried to keep up with the recovered numbers, but it was a haphazard situation.  Florida gets the focus here because it is highly infected, and by itself represents 20% of all the active cases in the US. 

I believe the actual number of active cases is far smaller.  This conjecture is based on the cycle time of the virus, 3 weeks normally, 6 weeks in severe cases and the number of new cases, does not add up to the number of active cases reported.  This makes sense, as most cases are identified, and sent home and never counted as recovered.  So the number of active cases continues to grow, when I suspect we have been in decline all summer.  If I just do a multiplication of new cases times 21 days and again by 1.06 for to factor in the severe cases, the number of projected active cases is around 1.1 million, and not the 2.5 million listed on the CDC web site. 

I do the math that way because it is more easily(?) explainable, I could just short cut it to times 22.26, but then I would have to explain where that number came from😊

I am not declaring this as some grand conspiracy, but just bureaucratic error. The medical system is overwhelmed by gearing up with the pandemic, and reporting recovered patients is probably a very low priority.

To that end I am going to start tracking new cases along with active cases.  Also, because of this load of “recovered” still mixed in as “Active”, the current surge in “New” cases has gotten masked.  40,000 new cases on a million is a 4% rise, where as with the official Active Case count of 2.5 million it is just 1.6%.

About 1/3 of the states seem to have taken the tact of doing a redressing of this.  Periodically, their number of active cases will drop dramatically overnight, and then start climbing upward at an understandable rate again.  These states are more in alignment with my 21 x1.06  x New Cases number.

I am now tracking new cases as well as active cases, but I only have accrued 11 days worth of data.  The average increase in the numbers per day over that period is 4%.  We have not seen a growth rate like this since April. 

Currently, 12 states are in decline with ACTIVE cases. This is down from 20 states previously.  I have not yet adapted this tracking to New Cases.

The summary is this.  We had a hiatus over the summer.  Masks and social distancing were working to reduce the spread, even if the official numbers didn’t reflect this.  But winter is here, and indoor behavior is increasing, and so is the virus.

 

 

The day the world changed.

Yesterday Donald Trump was diagnosed with C-19.  I have to admit, my first thought was ahhh, and sympathy for another victim I personally knew.  It was an emotional, heartfelt response.  Less charitable thoughts came later.

As of this morning (Saturday), the reports are that he is on an accelerated deterioration pattern for the disease, already entering the severe stage.  Several of his staff are testing positive and at least one US Senator. 

How this will change things?  I don’t know.  For every change in conditions causing one effect, there is a counter effect, and which condition will override the other is anyone’s guess.

For example.  Maybe 45’s supporters will finally take this epidemic seriously.  On the other hand, he may recover quickly, and then their intransigence will be reinforced.  Or he could die, and they will galvanized, or dismayed.  We can rationalize this forever.  He could recover and show more leadership on this problem.  He could recover and blame the problem on someone else.  No…One…Knows.  Anyone that says so is just writing a story in their minds.

How does this affect the election?  The constitution is silent on this matter.  Correct me if I am wrong, I have done some research, but I am not constitutional scholar by any means.  If 45 is disabled, the Republican party committee can replace him as a candidate on the ballot.  I think this is around 190 people.  They probably would pick Pence, but they could pick anyone.  Some states have restrictions on changing the ballot so many days before the election.  Nothing nefarious, just acknowledging the logistics.  The dead have been elected before in this country. 

But this is what the Electoral College is for.  A group of people, selected by the states, to vote for the President.    The system is set up this way to deal with situations not already coded into law.  Most electors are not required to vote for their candidate, this varies from state to state.  But, as most are hand picked by their candidate, that very rarely happens.  So if 45 is retired by the virus, his electors are free to pick who they want. 

One last point and I’ll move on.  There are many unkind comments about 45’s illness.  Be it karma or glee.  To me, it was probability.  He socialized with so many people, who themselves socialized with so many people, who themselves…, that this was inevitable. 

Assume there are 1,110 people in a 3 layer chain and in groups of 10.  So 45’s inner circle has 10 people, and they each interact with 10 additional people who also interact with 10 additional people.  (10x10x10)  And each of the bottom tier has a .99% chance of not having the infection.  National odds are .972%.  The odds that the 3^rd layer, of 1,000 people, that no one has C-19, is about .004%.  But odds are that there will be around 10 groups in the third tier with potential of infecting the next tier up.

Assuming there is just a 1% chance of spreading upwards to the second tier.  The odds of no one in the second tier getting infected from the tier below is 35%.  From there to tier 1, 45’s inner circle is 9.5%.  Multiply this out by 10 weeks, the odds of avoiding infection is down to 60%.   20 weeks, 36%.  Not guaranteed by any stretch, but high risk none the less.

Now look at the same situation, but better precautions.  Assume .995% (from .99) chance of not having an infection in third tier base, and transmission to the next tier to .5%.    The odds of no one having it at the bottom tier is .67%, while still less than 1%, is about 160 times more likely.  This leads to having about 5 infected threads to the second tier.  The odds of infecting the second tier goes down to 2.5%, and from there to 45’s tier to around .03%.  For 10 weeks, the odds are .27%, 20 weeks .45%.  Note where the decimal points are.

This involves pretty conservative numbers.  45’s inner circle is bigger than 10, and I am sure each tier has more direct reports then 10 as well.

 

Now for other news:

Vaccine development seems to be on track for first rollout by the beginning of next year.  Priorities will be Medical professionals, then the most vulnerable, then the general populace.  Which I guess will be the second half of 2021.

You may have heard that Pfizer had to suspend its vaccine trials.  This probably made the headlines.  Those trials have since been restarted and that usually does not make the headlines.  A trial patient came down with something nasty and rare, 3 in a million rare, and they were trying to determine was it the vaccine or random happening.  They must have decided randomness, and restarted the trials, but will look for more occurrences.

One study pegs the odds of contracting the virus when indoors to be 18 times more likely than out of doors at the same level of precautions.  https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.28.20029272v2

While attributable to superior ventilation, the sun is a factor. See the study commissioned by homeland security with regards to weaponizing C-19 as a WMD.  When exposed to sunlight the virus embedded in vectors (Snot, spit, surfaces), attrits more rapidly than indoors. 

https://academic.oup.com/jid/article/222/4/564/5856149

At early stages the virus is more spreadable then later stages.  Evidence exists that when the virus is in the lungs, the spread is more “aerosolized”.  Many more particles, higher spread patterns, less protection value from masks. 

Once the virus settles into the rest of the body, the infection rate seems to drop.  My guess here that is due to the victim being less able to breathe properly.

The economic toll on the country cannot be understated.  Businesses are failing at an unprecedented rate.  The country is burning through its reserves also at an unprecedented rate. 

Another way to look at it is to measure the economic cost is to measure the loss of economic activity of an individual.

When someone dies at the age of 22, the country has lost all of the investment in that individual for 22 years, and all the economic activity that person could have generated over their lifetime.  Currently the cost taking a child from zero to 18 is $283,000 and if you throw in a college degree around $350,000. 

After that, on average, that individual is economic net neutral for a few years before being a net positive effect on the economy.  The numbers range wildly on the earning potential after that point.  I am going to use 1.4 million for High School, and 2.3 million college degree.

So each individual, with a degree that dies at 22, costs the economy around 2.65 million dollars prorated over 40 years.  Non-degreed 1.7 million.  Average that out with 37% American with degrees and we come to close enough to 2 million per person as to not matter.