A Challange to the Anti--Vax Crowd

 By the Numbers

I have a challenge for the anti-vaxers. Convince me you are right. There must be a reason you are so passionate about not adequately protecting yourself and family.

I have heard very many of your complaints, and the problem is, that so many of them are deliberately fabricated lies that you are telling yourselves, and you believe them.

So think about this, if your side is publishing lie after obviously proven lie, then why do you think you have any credibility at all?

I would really be interested in hearing any validation of your opinion.

I'm am going to provide a few examples here.

Recently, an anti-vax comment was posted on a local neighborhood forum. "Benner Road". This forum is designed for local neighborhood issues like, lost pets or school issues. The comment was in regard to school board decisions on masking the student body vice going back to virtual learning. And it read something like, "My boyfriend from Trinidad got the vaccine and his testicles got swollen and now he is sterile, and that is why she isn't getting the vaccine."

My thought's were, that is interesting, someone in "Benner Road" has a friend in Trinidad. Now Benner Road is in suburban Pennsylvania, and has 220 subscribers. What are the odds that any of them have any contact with someone in Trinidad, a small island off the coast of South America? Let alone be friends with possibly the only person on the planet that suffered swollen testicles after getting the vaccine?

But you know, I don't know this person, it could be true. But it wasn't worth my time to comment.

Then 3 days later I hear a joking reference on BBC4 about a rap artist, Nicki Minaj, making the claim that her cousins wedding was canceled because her fiance from Trinidad suffered swollen testicles after getting the vaccine? OK, now what are the odds? There couldn't be two men from Trinidad with this problem. World wide, about 1.5 billion men have received the vaccine, and the only two men that reported this issue live in the same small country of 1.4 million? Not impossible but...

And one of them is friends with someone that lives within a quarter mile of me? This is defying credulity. Obviously one is just lying that "they know someone." And, as it turns out, they are both lying. As declared by Trinidad and Tobago Health Minister, Terrence Deyalsing. He declared that checking on this claim was a large waste of his departments time that could have been better spent elsewhere.

Then there was this deliberately created fabrication. Bill Gates is a fanatic on vaccines of all types, and his foundation has put serious money into things like vaccines for malaria. The anti-vax crowd has openly attacked him by declaring that this elitist is trying to save the planet by reducing the human population to a manageable level, and the Covid vaccine is part of the plan. To support that position, they published this photo.

They really rely on no-one checking on these things. 

What is actually said on the wall is literally, ENGRAVED IN STONE.

So if you tell me a more lies, why should I believe you?  More to the point, why are you believing them?

I have had as evidence presented to me that masks do not provide protection which had headlines stating they do not work, but if you actually read the article, their results show that masks do work. Or they are on articles that not about masks at all. One anti masker provided a list of 40 such studies. None actually supported their position.

Then there are those that state that masks are harmful. In Japan, mask wearing is the primary source of preventing infection. They wear them everywhere. Are we saying that the Americans more frail than the Japanese? 

And in Japan, which doesn't have a major pharmaceutical industry, had to wait 3-4 months before the vaccine was available to them. They fought the virus with social distancing and masks. The result? With 1/3 the population of the US, concentrated 10 times as many people per sq mile, 1/40th the infections and deaths. Social distancing and masks. Proof they work.

Then we have the latest surge in Covid. In every hospital the unvaccinated outnumber the vaccinated by 19-1 for Covid treatments. And yet, the unvaccinated are insisting that Ivermectin will save them. What is this based on? There has been over 50 studies on Ivermectin that showed no efficacy, but a single study from Egypt says it did. So which study does the anti-vaxers chose to believe, and repeat? Even if that study is accurate, does improving your survival rate 2-1 once you have Covid somehow better than 19-1 of not getting hospitalized to begin with?

When radio personality Bob Enyart,  KLTT-AM, Denver, claimed vaccine was developed using aborted fetal cells, where is his evidence?  Why should I believe anything else he said? FYI, he succumbed to Covid Sept 12.

The Covid deniers claim C-19 is just like the flu.  But when did the flu kill 500,000 Americans in a single year?  The answer is, the Spanish flu of 1918-1919.  Total US deaths 670,000, current Covid deaths 720,000, and as of Sept, 2021, growing about 1,500 daily.

Covid deniers constantly mock news sources MSN and CNN as fake news.  Are you trying to tell me the hospitals are not full of Covid victims?  We all know people that have died of Covid.  My personal count is 11 infected, 2 dead, 2 "long haulers", 4 had a rough go of it.  How is MSN and CNN even in this narrative?  And for the record, the last time I had on CNN was during the Jan 6 insurrection.  And MSN not at all.

How about 5G network causing the virus, promoted by Robert F. Kennedy Jr., one of the Disinformation Dozen?

 Covid vaccines have microchips and causes infertility.  Where is the proof?  

So please, what is the real reason for your vaccine refusal?  Bear in mind, my goal is to keep you and yours alive and healthy, stop this pandemic, so we can all go about our lives. 

 

Coronavirus, the Late September Edition

 Coronavirus, the Late September Edition

By the Numbers

The Numbers 

Nationwide, the numbers continue to oscillate around 3 million active cases. Almost all the states are in decline,

Sending the kids to school seems to be a major factor. In Pennsylvania, 30% of the new cases, some 20,000 of the 70,000 new cases in the last two weeks, are school age children.

San Francisco seems to be doing a good job on tracking sources of infection, and identified that the vast majority of school age infections were acquired in the home, not at the school.

Booster shots

The information on booster shots changes daily. Currently the CDC is recommending booster shots for "at risk" people whose last vaccination was 8 months ago. The reported decline in efficacy of the vaccines is still wildly varied. But even the lowest numbers, about 65%, are above what immunologists would consider effective. 

Ethicists are complaining, and rightly so, if Americans don't want the vaccine, then ship it to locations around the world that need it. Let none go to waste. The logistics of shipping the mRNA virus is daunting as they require a very cold environment, but doable. It would be a great photo op to have thousands of Nigerians lining up at the air plane for their shots. We could tell the Refusenicks the Nigerians are getting their shots. 

Refusenick Hell

I have tried to avoid talking about the death counts in my missives. My goal is not to induce fear, but provide context through the numbers. But sometimes, the death count is what is required to make the point. 

How badly is the current Covid surge affecting the refuseniks of the vaccine? At the peak of the pandemic, the 15 weeks from November 2020 to February 2021, 286,000 Americans died of Covid out of an adult population of 255 million*, or about 1,122 out of every million. 

During the 15 weeks from June to September 11, 75,000 died of Covid. The CDC places this loss as 85% unvaccinated so the number of the unvaccinated that have died is 63,900. Every hospital graph I have seen puts this at 95%+**, and I have seen dozens of them by now, but I have to assume the CDC did a better job of looking at all hospitals, and not just the ones promoting their beds dedicated to Covid. So I'll use their lower number.

The number of unvaccinated adults from June-Sept is around 97 million. This puts the death count per million at 736 per million. In the same time frame the death count for the vaccinated is 71 per million. 

And this does not consider the long term debilitating effects of the virus settling into your vascular system. This seems to effect about 32% of all the moderate to serious cases of Covid. Assuming the serious cases are all hospitalized and that number is closed to 3 million, almost 700,000 died, giving us around 730,000 with various "Long Hauler" effects.

So it is the concentration of Covid that is the major problem. This is nothing we didn't already know. But even in those areas, Covid is not spreading as badly as it did at it's peak last winter. Even in the refusenik strongholds about 40% are vaccinated, and that seems to have mitigated the disaster that has fallen on them. It's just those areas tend to be much poorer and less able to deal with a reduced version of this plague. 

*I know children are catching Delta now, but they are still a small percentage of the serious cases. Feel free to distort my numbers a couple of percentage points to account for them.

**DC reports their breakthrough rate at .72%, PA at 6%, NJ at .002%. A very wide range.

Which States are still growing, and which are declining.

The graph below is the counts of NEW cases for each state and protectorate for the last 4 weeks. 

2 states and the Navajo nation are still showing an increase from last week. the rest are reporting a decline. 10 have a less than 10% decline, the rest more so.

27 states and protectorates still have more new cases this week than 4 weeks ago.

Looks like my prediction of a sharp drop in September was bogus. 

State	8/25 to 8/31	9/1 to 9/7	9/8 to 9/14	9/15 to 9/21	4 weeks change	Last week change
Alabama	7,805	11,695	11,765	6,923	89%	59%
Alaska	2,499	3,039	4,679	4,307	172%	92%
Arizona	22,387	21,730	21,129	16,919	76%	80%
Arkansas	14,023	15,050	13,795	9,191	66%	67%
California	82,920	85,150	74,143	54,379	66%	73%
Colorado	8,271	12,020	12,492	8,672	105%	69%
Connecticut	4,659	3,872	4,985	5,418	116%	109%
Delaware	2,159	3,098	3,332	3,245	150%	97%
DistrictOfColumbia	1,355	991	1,871	1,402	103%	75%
FederalPrisons	7,797	7,703	7,991	5,417	69%	68%
Florida	130,389	86,716	82,082	49,333	38%	60%
Georgia	47,404	47,389	48,877	27,390	58%	56%
Guam	5,483	4,231	3,012	2,010	37%	67%
Hawaii	6,279	5,815	4,504	3,246	52%	72%
Idaho	5,189	6,406	10,222	7,888	152%	77%
Illinois	18,818	22,841	27,389	15,963	85%	58%
Indiana	21,067	21,312	27,941	17,022	81%	61%
Iowa	559	1,918	734	437	78%	60%
Kansas	4,534	4,074	7,051	5,314	117%	75%
Kentucky	22,206	22,319	29,798	20,077	90%	67%
Louisiana	18,992	8,583	17,813	8,597	45%	48%
Maine	1,722	2,690	3,884	3,264	190%	84%
MarianaIslands	867	1,000	1,402	944	109%	67%
Maryland	8,031	8,932	9,073	8,621	107%	95%
Massachusetts	8,075	8,912	13,665	9,248	115%	68%
Michigan	6,754	7,037	13,710	13,280	197%	97%
Minnesota	10,872	10,361	15,867	15,686	144%	99%
Mississippi	16,799	13,883	15,150	10,555	63%	70%
Missouri	16,802	16,625	18,936	13,934	83%	74%
Montana	3,374	3,758	6,684	6,552	194%	98%
NavajoNation	142	151	109	127	89%	117%
Nebraska	3,934	3,117	4,607	3,244	82%	70%
Nevada	5,726	6,036	8,487	5,534	97%	65%
NewHampshire	1,436	1,239	2,465	1,580	110%	64%
NewJersey	13,908	14,955	18,571	15,419	111%	83%
NewMexico	4,303	4,230	4,604	3,143	73%	68%
NewYork	29,912	36,878	42,310	37,892	127%	90%
NorthCarolina	32,047	33,214	41,509	29,736	93%	72%
NorthDakota	2,062	2,986	4,084	3,153	153%	77%
Ohio	31,225	47,032	57,247	46,633	149%	81%
Oklahoma	17,280	12,660	16,764	9,952	58%	59%
Oregon	11,945	11,119	13,790	8,858	74%	64%
Pennsylvania	22,757	27,602	34,542	32,415	142%	94%
PuertoRico	210	223	248	248	118%	100%
RhodeIsland	1,557	1,509	2,543	1,843	118%	72%
SouthCarolina	22,981	25,450	30,040	17,973	78%	60%
SouthDakota	2,613	2,389	2,969	2,385	91%	80%
Tennessee	25,980	42,424	42,194	19,165	74%	45%
Texas	104,973	121,365	141,900	79,116	75%	56%
USATotalNotincludedintotals	909,368	941,555	1,090,958	753,411	83%	69%
USMilitary	2,572	2,183	4,540	2,001	78%	44%
Utah	6,103	6,931	11,428	7,448	122%	65%
Vermont	912	1,281	1,259	1,391	153%	110%
Virginia	19,319	23,199	29,887	21,523	111%	72%
Washington	17,676	18,907	24,838	14,822	84%	60%
WestVirginia	5,787	10,007	14,676	12,707	220%	87%
Wisconsin	10,478	11,778	16,640	16,339	156%	98%
Wyoming	3,194	3,095	4,402	3,266	102%	74%

Coronavirus, the Early September Edition

Coronavirus, the Early September Edition

By the Numbers

The Numbers 

Nationwide, we seem to have hit peak, and the number of new cases is now in a slight decline.  The last 4 days are showing about 2% fewer new cases than the week before.  The estimated total of active cases is over 3 million.  However, there is a 3 day holiday in the totals, and that tends to reduce the number of cases as it screws up the reporting.  But even the Thursday number, 160,748, is less than last Thursdays of 182,593.  So the decline seems real.

Nationwide, the estimated number of active cases continues to hold at just above 3 million.  Where it has been since 9/1/2021. 

Why is no one is dying of Covid in Florida anymore?

Florida changed how they report Covid death counts.  From the date the death certificate is processed, to the date of the actual death.  Because of this, if you were to graph Florida's deaths, it will now always look liked it peaked a few days back, and is now in decline.  When in fact, with Florida, the number of deaths is increasing commensurate with their disproportionate number of active cases.  Florida has 16% the number of cases in the nation, apportioned to 6.5% of the population.

But there is another subtle change in the day to day statistics.  If you look at Florida's numbers today, or yesterday, there are zero deaths.  So someone looking at the charts would think Florida is doing a good job as no one has died.  Their count of total deaths continues to go up, it is just not graphed.  See this web site.

 

An example Wednesdays numbers vs Thursdays.  Florida logged in 9 new deaths, but their total deaths went from 46,942 to  48,273.  +1,331!

Mu

The variant known as Mu, mutated in existence in Columbia, where it is the dominant variant.  The press is saying much about Mu, while knowing very little.  I have notice the word "could" used a lot.  Could be vaccine evading, could be more infectious.   The short answer is We... Don't... Know...

First on vaccine evasion.  This is just a fear mongering press trying to get head lines.  We... Don't... Know...  Mu mutated in Columbia in Jan, 2021, so it is impossible that it mutated in response to the current vaccines.

Mu has been identified in every state save Nebraska.  In each area, it represents less than 1% of the total cases.  Far less.  For example, in California, 380 cases have been identified, as opposed to an estimated 254,000 active cases, or .15% the total.

My thoughts are that if Mu was more infectious/deadlier/vaccine evading, it would be more prominent than that.    With a press corps tired of reporting about Covid, this is just something new to write up.

An example from the NY Daily News on press prevarication, "The U.S. saw its peak of Mu variant cases in mid-July but case numbers involving that variant have been declining since, signaling either a weakening of the strain or indicating a worrisome future."

Ivermectin 

The anti-parasitic drug Ivermectin has captured the imagination of meme developers everywhere.  Here is what we know.  Ivermectin and HCQ have both been looked into extensively as a treatment for Covid.  Both have been suggested in looking for a reason the Covid has not cut a swath through equatorial Africa.  Both drugs are in heavy use there for treating the various parasites in that region.

Ivermectin's supporters claim it has not been studied, and allude to pharmaceutical company conspiracies.  Anti-vaxers have latched onto it as an alternative to vaccines.

 

It has been studied.  At least 57 studies so far.  And only one study has shown efficacy.  The rest have not. 

 

The one study has been heavily downloaded and shared on the anti-vax boards.  The study as it was originally published, was not peer reviewed.  But that is part of the normal process.  We have a month or so now of medical researchers looking at the paper, and they have issues with methodology and record keeping.  Notably duplicate patient numbers and incomplete records of patients that showed positive effects vice those that did not.

 

The American Journal of Therapeutics, where they looked at many of these studies and posted their results here.   In their final evaluation, with the exception of just one category, all the "quality of evidence" ratings of these studies is rated "low" or "very low".  However, that one category is "death from any cause".  78 out of 1,000 for no ivermectin verses 48 per 1,000 for ivermectin.  A 61% improvement in death from any cause. So the Journal's conclusion reads:

 

"Moderate-certainty evidence finds that large reductions in COVID-19 deaths are possible using ivermectin. Using ivermectin early in the clinical course may reduce numbers progressing to severe disease. The apparent safety and low cost suggest that ivermectin is likely to have a significant impact on the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic globally."

Unfortunately, this has been taken to heart by the anti-vax refusenicks as meaning they do not need the vaccine. They are only told ivermectin is an effective treatment, and can be used as preventive medicine.  

 

And many are raiding veterinary supplies for non prescription ivermectin.  Unfortunately the recommended dosage's are in mcg per kg of the patient.  You know, metric, and you have to do math.  And it comes in pills and liquid.  People are getting it wrong and adding to the ER load.

Where the logic falls down is 61% improvement on outcomes with ivermectin is not as good as 17-1 (94.2%) benefit of the vaccine is currently (CDC Aug 13) showing at preventing hospitalizations, this number has Delta factored in, but may not be weighted properly, but I'll go with the experts.  If you want ivermectin after you get hospitalized, I have no problem with that, but also be aware, it is not just ivermectin, but there is no established treatment regimen yet in this country, or any western country.

Where there is a treatment regimen is in Brazil.  A cocktail of ivermectin, HCQ, anti-inflammatory drugs,  tetracycline, azithromycin, referred to as "early treatment". So we have a real world experiment on the value of this drug.  Brazil has a population 2/3rd's the US, and 584,000 deaths compared to the US's 666,000.

It's not an either or thing with ivermectin, except for the anti-vax refusenicks.  They have signs up declaring "We have ivermectin, you can keep your vaccine." 

 

States in decline

I missed this last surge was going to happen.  During all of June, the numbers averaged 11,600 new cases daily.  Down from a peak of 301,000 on Jan 8.   I was lulled into a sense that Covid was over.  The vaccine had won, and we could go about our lives.  I was contemplating the final edition of this missive.

 

Evidence of this surge was there in the numbers, and I missed it. The clue was the stabilization.  Which implies the bottom of the curve, when it should have continued to decline.  When you bottom out, you can only go up.  I didn't catch that, while some  states were in decline, others were increasing.  Concentrating in the Covid denial areas and growing.  

 

As of today, we do have the reverse situation happening.  Most states are in decline.  This is the list where Covid is still climbing:

Iowa            1,613 new cases last week, a 283% increase over the previous week.
Louisiana    11,977 new cases last week, a 150% increase over the previous week.
West Virginia 8,975 new cases last week, a 136% increase over the previous week.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

These states are still increasing but between 101 and 113% of the previous week.
Maine
Nebraska
Ohio
North Dakota
Puerto Rico
Pennsylvania
New York

The rest of the states, protectorates, military, and districts are in decline.

 

Though, Florida is in doubt, as their change in counting makes it seem like they are in serious decline, at 44% the previous week, but that is just statistical bull shit.

Coronavirus, the Late August Edition

 Coronavirus, the Late August Edition

       By the Numbers 

The FDA has granted full approval for the Pfizer vaccine. One less excuse for the refusenicks.

=====================================================================

The number of daily new cases and the total number of active cases continues to grow.  My earlier prediction that we would hit 2 million active cases by Aug 18 was exceeded by 5 days. 

The rate of increase is leveling off.  We currently have an estimated active case count of 2.7 million.  The average number of daily new cases last 7 days was 120,600, increasing by just 1.05% per day, compared to late July when it was between 10-15% per day, but we haven't plateaued yet.

If it wasn't for children being sent back to school I would say curve was about to level out around 3 million, followed by a sharp drop sometime the first week of September.  This fire has burned very bright, and against an ever reducing pile of fuel. There are only so many unvaccinated left, and by the end of August, the vaccination rate nation wide should hit 77%. 

But the politicos are insisting on sending children back to school.  And regardless of how well protected they are, this churn of the population cannot reduce the amount of Covid cases, so it can only increase it.  

A week after school opens, there will be cases among the children, which will have already passed onto their families.  A week later we will be back on virtual learning.  The systems are set up already, so this time around it shouldn't have even been a question.

=====================================================================

On Variants.  All Covid is effectively the Delta variant  now.  It was 51% of the cases in June, 83% at the end of July, and is well over 95% now.

Lambda is concentrated in LA and Houston areas and represents about 1% the total cases in those areas.  Any articles you read regarding Lambda's mortality rate, infectiousness, and ability to "breakthrough" vaccines is hyperbole right now.  I noticed the word "may" distributed liberally in those articles.  

We don't really know.  

But, if Lambda was more infectious, lethal, or vaccine avoiding compared to Delta, I think we would have a better hint of it by now.  

=====================================================================

The articles about breakthrough rates and Delta and vaccination loss of efficacy were across the board. But now I am seeing a consensus with the major medical services.

I have had to rewrite this section 4 times in 9 days due to the deluge of newly  uncovered information.

Rather than posting various reports I'll just cut to the (current) finals.

The effectiveness of Covid-19 vaccines among front-line workers declined to 66% after the delta variant became dominant.  The formal report, dated Aug 18 from the CDC is here.

This is pretty much in alignment with Israel's health ministry regarding  putting Delta  at 64%.

Now take this with a grain of salt.  Assuming front-line workers are properly protected, but they are also exposed 8 or more hours a day.   Time of exposure is also a factor.  15 minutes in the grocery store is not really a problem.

Since May, there has been 41,000+ deaths in the USA due to Covid.  The CDC's counts of total breakthrough deaths at 1,829.  This puts the vaccination to unvaccinated ratio at around 19-1 for hospitalizations and death.  I have seen over a dozen reports from individual hospitals all saying the same thing. 

=====================================================================

The topic of booster shots evolved quickly in the last 2 weeks.  What you heard in beginning of the month may not apply now.

By mid September, all American adults will be eligible for a booster if their last vaccine was 8 months ago, or if they are immunocompromised.

It is recommended your booster be the same brand as your vaccine, but it is not mandatory.   There is some chatter that mixed vaccines is better.  

At this time, the booster will be exactly the same vaccine as you received earlier.  Work is being done on tuning them for "Delta", but that is still a work in progress.

=====================================================================

As mask requirements are being heavily suggested or required again, the mask-deniers are back in force.  Beware being presented with studies with false headlines.  I just got one with the headline broadly proclaiming masks don't work, when in the summary the study proclaims they do work.  Followed by a long line of comments of "I knew it!" from people that didn't read the article.   This particular study was not even about testing if masks work or not, but about some masks work better than others.  

And proper fit is important.  

So nothing new here.

=====================================================================

There is a good article on myths being put out by refusenicks, mask-deniers and other "it ain't so crowd" put out by the Boston University.  ... here...

On Battery Life

On Battery Life

By the Numbers.

We no longer can live without our devices of convenience.  All of which require frequent charging of their batteries to remain active.  Over time the batteries grow weaker and eventually fail.  And most times this leads to replacing the device.  Whether that is preplanned obsolescence or adopting the latest and greatest technology is your call.

There are steps that can be done extend the battery life of your favorite device.  Put another way, avoiding things that are damaging the battery.

My formal training is with electronics and as such, I have worked on a variety of electronic/electrical equipment, including battery chargers.  Most recently with a company called Lithium Battery in Plymouth Meeting, PA.  They make specialized batteries for things like submersibles.  Over the years I have observed numerous behaviors about batteries and evolved strategies on mitigating them.

Here are some thoughts you may want to consider.  Some of these are easy to implement, others border on being a pain in the ass.  They are not "all or nothing".  Just decide on the ones you wish to follow. 

Batteries will get weaker over time.  This is unavoidable as batteries store energy chemically, and over time the chemicals dispersed in the structure, or the structure is weakened and breaks down.  As the chemicals are stored in a cellular  pattern, individual cells break and become useless, but the remaining cells is holding charges, and so the battery gets weaker, but doesn't fail.

#1)  Don't leave your device on the charger over night.  

Chargers are, by and large, built by the lowest bidder, and as such, are probably very cheap, and cheaply built.  Leaving the device on the charger over night will cause the battery to over charge by a very small amount, for a long period of time.  Overcharging will cause the battery to weaken sooner.

The truth is, battery chargers do not "Know" when the battery is charged.  Cheap ones from the dollar store will just pump full power until bad things happen.  More advanced ones, like what comes with your cell phone has some ways of monitoring the situation, by temperature and power storage estimates, and will reduce the charge to a trickle when the battery is thought to be near fully charged.  This greatly extends the life of the battery, but is not perfect either.  

One way to tell if this is happening is when you take your phone off the charger first thing in the morning. Is it warm to the touch? If so, it was over charging the battery.

Anecdotal story:  I was issued a new company laptop way back when.  And I used it to entertain my son on a long drive.   I didn't have the ability to charge the laptop from the car.  I put in a DVD of a movie and took off.  The DVD ran the whole movie and just about died when we arrived at our destination.

Next year, same trip, same laptop.  The battery died half way to the destination.  The backup battery also ran flat before arriving.  One of the differences is that laptop was on a charger 24x7 for a year.  

Anecdotal story:  In 2017, I received a company laptop, a Microsoft Surface.  Which I basically used as desktop.  At home, it rarely left the cradle, but I also spent half my time on the road, so it wasn't on a charger 24x7.  About a year later, the batteries expanded (swelled, bulged), causing the case to round and rock.  But those batteries were now compromised and at risk of fire and explosion.  I called Microsoft, and even though the unit was out of warranty, they replaced the unit and copied over the drive for free.  While waiting for the work to complete, I found out that they had a warehouse full of these compromised units.  This is a major problem for Microsoft.  Over the next year, all four of the units we bought in 2017 failed in a like manner.  

I did Google search on this problem, I see units still being reported with battery "Swells", but many of the victims are reporting older models, and so are in the range of when our units were purchased.  I also found a reference just last year of firmware changes to prevent overcharging in Surface units.  My thought is that Surface batteries are still a problem, and I would not recommend buying one.

#2)  Don't charge your device to 100%

As you get closer to the battery capacity, the battery will also be damaged by a very-very small amount.  And over the years this adds up to a degradation of the charge.  For my phone, I only take the charge to 80% and then remove it from the charger.  It seems to work well.  My phone is now 4 years old and the the battery effectiveness is still rated at 80%.

I realize this tactic is in the range of "Pain-in-the-ass".  And I don't have a measured difference between taking it to 80%, and taking it to 100% before removal.  Once again, it's your call.

Now the companies know all this and do their best.  When your device is at 100%, it is not really at full charge.  It's at 80%(ish)  They set it that way to protect the phone from fully charged damage.  So when I remove the phone at 80%, it's closer to 64% of the real charge.  And for my needs, that is good enough.

And example of an excellent charging system is the Toyota Prius.  When introduced in 1997, there was a fear that they would be replacing their battery packs at 5 years, costing $3,500 (1997) and creating an environmental problem disposing of 110 pounds of lead acid batteries.  

And that didn't happen.  After 5 years, Prius's batteries were at about 80% effectiveness, more than sufficient to provide hybrid assist when needed.  Toyota accomplished this by really babying their batteries.  They spent significant R&D on the charging system.  In the end, they keep the charge on the batteries between 40-60%.  We know this because hypermiling enthusiasts modified Prius's to accept full charge in their efforts to get more MPG out of them.  And it worked, but we have no stats on how long the batteries lasted.

#3) Run on battery if you are using an external display.

The display is the major consumer of power of a laptop or phone, by a lot.  If you are using an outboard display/keyboard/mouse etc... then the battery will run all day long with normal usage.  Charge the laptop to about 80%, then unplug it.  

#4) Don't leave your device in the car.  

The trunk is OK, but the passenger compartment gets very hot, shortening the life of the battery.  I had a Garmin GPS unit on the dash board for about 10 years, it's last 5 years the battery was just enough to boot up and die.  In the end, the batteries were so dead, that even being on a power cord, it wouldn't boot up. 

Your car battery also suffers in the summer heat.  That is when it suffers the most damage. You only notice the problem in the winter because a cold engine needs more current than a warm engine to start.

Running battery saving modes.

There are many settings to help extend the length of the charge.  In essence, they all reduce performance and energy usage, but come up to full power when the device is in use. 

Which ones you should use is situational to you.  How mobile are you?  If mobile, and away from  convenient charging, then use them all.  Dim the screen a bit, slow the processor, set sleep for 5 minutes.  

If you are on a docking station. Turn them all off.  I find them really annoying to have my screen dim after a minute of reading.  But again, this is situational, you have to be the judge, and the settings are available to you.

;) Except for iPhone auto dimming.   Auto dimming is controlled by  4 of the settings, in different locations on the phone that are available to you, but one is not.  So don't bother.  It's going to auto-dim on you whether you want it to or not.  Consider it a feature. ;)

 

Coronavirus, the Mid August Edition 2

 Coronavirus, the Mid August Edition

       By the Numbers 

Often these missives start immediately after publishing the last, and numbers edited and new articles added over time.  This one was no exception.  However there has been so much news on the Covid front that the the overall theme and cadence of its unpublished predecessor is no longer supporting the ad Hominem like alterations.  So first, back to the basics.

On Wed., Aug 11th, we had 144,635 new cases, for an estimated total of 1,690,000 active cases.  The nationwide growth rate is averaging 38% increase for the week, the week before was 37%, and the week before was around 21%.  The last time we had that many new cases, and growing, was November 11th, 2020.  One major difference is then, the weekly growth rate was 5% per week.

There is no sugar coating this, it's horrible.    In June, the average was 12,500 new cases a day, and an active case estimate of 270,000. 

So what went wrong?  Most of  country opened up before the vaccination plans were completed.  Vaccinated people celebrated and went on their lives, while the unvaccinated decided they were safe by virtue of of the arms of the vaccinated.  I'm being kind here.  I have seen their "echo chambers", and I lack the words to describe it.

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If you are Immunocompromised, then soon, a Covid "booster" shot will be available for you.  Dr. Fauci announced on 8/5 that approval for the boosters is in the works.

Priorities will be for the Immunocompromised and health care workers.  Among the 5,000+ known "breakthrough" cases, 44% are  with Immunocompromised people.  

Take a note on those numbers.  So far, there are only 5,000(ish) known "Breakthrough" cases, out of 3 million since May.  Those would be cases where the symptoms were severe enough that the person sought treatment.  Surely there are more, but they never reached the level of needing to seek help.  If you just look at the headlines you would think every other case was a breakthrough.

And the headlines will imply booster shots will be required for everyone.  So far, for the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines, the 6 month measurements show about only a 3% degradation in efficacy.  The articles regarding the J&J, is across the board in the 6 month efficacy tests.  Some say it increases in efficacy, others report a steep drop.  So a booster there may be in order there.  

There is a study being publish in Yale's Axios that puts the degradation in effectiveness much lower for Pfizer Moderna, especially against the Delta variant.  But that study has not yet been peer reviewed and contradicts other studies.  Stay tuned.

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Last month I reported the numbers posted by the CDC about "breakthrough" infections of fully vaccinated people in May.  They were small, totaling around 5,000 cases, constituting .15% of the hospitalizations and .8% of the deaths associated with Covid. 

The numbers were so small, the CDC decide to discontinue counting them.  That decision has been called into question and served as propaganda fodder for the refusenicks.  However, many states have continued counting and the problem of "breakthroughs" is growing and accelerating.  It is the states that do the actual counting anyway, the CDC is just accruing data sent by the states.  But without a single source, we have to go with a number of sources/articles/reports.

First, let me say, if you are vaccinated, the news is not as bad as the refusenick propaganda would have you believe.  Here are some numbers:

In Israel a 14 week study followed 1,500 healthcare workers looking for breakthrough cases. 39 became infected or 2.6%.  67% had mild symptoms, 33% were asymptomatic.  None were hospitalized.

See: https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2021/07/israeli-study-finds-26-covid-breakthrough-infection-rate

Cape Cod had a super spreader event in July.  469 cases of Covid, 346 were fully vaccinated.  Of the 346, about 1/3 was Delta, 1/3 Alpha, 1/3 unknown.  5 were hospitalized, none died.  Also noted in the article is that the source is the CDC, so they seem back in the game on counting breakthroughs.

See:  https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7031e2.htm

Iceland is having a surge of Covid, despite being one of the most vaccinated countries in the world (96% at least partial) The counts are small by US Standards, from the 10's in June and July to about 100 cases a day in August.  But no deaths since May.

See: https://qz.com/2044284/icelands-rising-covid-19-cases-demonstrate-vaccine-efficacy/

The example of the fleeing Texas legislature.   All vaccinated, 1 had it, 5 more got it.  2 had symptoms.

My wife's company's upper staff, all vaccinated.  5 caught it, 2 had mild symptoms.

The spread of the virus in the US has been described as a "Pandemic of the unvaccinated"  And in hospitals around the country the doctors will say it is true.  I have read 3 or 4 articles, which I did not log, from hospitals in Los Angeles, Georgia and Texas where the hospitalized are described as 95+% unvaccinated. And this seems to still be true.

This is all evidence that the vaccine is protecting its patients, and very well, but it is also clear that the vaccinated are getting and spreading Covid, we are just not paying the ultimate price for it.

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The fear of Covid seems to have hit some of the refusenicks.  Vaccinations have been up for a couple of weeks.  Almost 800,000 a day from a low of 400,000.  The peak was about 3.5 million a day.  

There is no clear vector to follow here.  The groups are clusters and not homogeneous within a cluster.  

As the unvaccinated are disproportionately feeling this 5th surge of the virus, by almost 2-1, so to will the effects of getting more vaccinated improve the situation with those groups.  

By that I mean, as an example if there are 102,000 new cases in the USA, it will feel like 204,000 if you are in the unvaccinated clusters.  Last year there were only 23 worse days than yesterday.  So in those areas, it is going to get much worse. 

Even in Pennsylvania, after hovering at 140 new cases a day throughout June, yesterday was over 2,000, last week the growth of it concentrated in 6 counties.  This week, 50 out of 67 counties had reported over 40% growth. In New Jersey, just one county has half the new cases. 

This is not a tragedy.  Tragedies are accidental and just happen.  This is an Atrocity!  A man made event.

Once again the Disinformation Dozen are in the news as they are a main source of antivax hysteria.  A later study has shown that since April, 73% of social media misinformation on vaccines derives from one of these 12 people.

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The refusenicks have been fed the lie that this surge is due to undocumented immigrants being flown around the country.  At first it was 200,000 of them.  But as that number is not sufficiently scary  sounding, so now it's 2 million.   Meanwhile they deliberately reduce the numbers of refusenicks for statistical purposes to validate their world view.  One claimed only 18% (54 million) of "US Citizens" remain unvaccinated.  My calculations put it closer to 100 million.  48 million under 12 and can't, 46 million and won't, and about 6 million that are just late to the party.

And to over sell this lie, they claim that due to this immigrant surge, measles, mumps and whooping cough are also surging. Another lie they are being fed.  And its easily disproved. I looked them all up and none of them are surging, actually they are at an all time low.  Measles is at 2 (not 2 thousand, not 2 hundred, just 2) this year, down from over a 1,000 in 2017, and then that was mostly in American Samoa thanks again to the Disinformation Dozen.  Mumps are down also in the US, from about 3,500 cases around 2016 just 52 this year.  But a quick google will not show that, because mumps is increasing in the UK, and that is bubbling to the top of the results.  You also have to dig deeper for Whooping Cough, because of Finland's current outbreak is driving those articles to the top as well.

On Aug 5, Dr Fauci also counts the number of eligible but unvaccinated Americans at 100 million.  It's nice to get validation.  

So blaming 200 thousand or even 2 million immigrants for this surge is patently ridiculous.  Its an attempt to distract the conversation from the real problem.

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We hit 70% partially or fully vaccinated on July 28.  Which means we are now tracking to 70% fully vaccinated by Aug 28, partially vaccinated  around  77% the same date.  

70% has been bandied about as the herd immunity level, but that was always just a hopeful wish.  There is no fixed number, and immunologists regard herd immunity as between 70 and 80%.  So 70% was always on the low end.  And if you are talking Flu, with an R rating of 1.8, that is a lower case 'ok', and still kills 10's of thousands a year.  

But Delta's R rating of 5?  No one knows.  I'll throw a dart and say 85% (281 million) vaccinated is going to be required.  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Lies Continue

    The 2020 Election Lies You May Have Heard
The Lies Continue

The election is over.  The results long in the can and ratified, and yet, new lies are being created whole cloth out of nothing.

August 5, 2021, Mike Lindell (CEO "My Pillow") made the claim that he has evidence that China hacked the presidential election in 2020 and changed votes.

Including Clark County, Wisconsin.  

To be fair, he is claiming every state was hacked by the Chinese, but lets focus on Clark County for this one.

He claims that China hacked and changed 24,000 votes of Clark County's Dominion voting machines, and 45 actually won by 5,000 votes.

 There are a few problems with this.  

1)  Clark county only has 17,000 registered voters.

2) 15,000 of them voted.

3) Clark county doesn't use any machines.  They are still using paper ballots.  If you look at the data they provided the state on who won the municipal elections, it arrived as handwritten note, later scanned as a PDF file.

4)  45 actually did win the county by 5,000 votes.

What proof Mike has provided has been looked at by 6 cyber experts who state there is no evidence of anything there, let alone switching votes.

But after his proof has been repudiated, twice now, he has doubled down and stated he will broadcast the actual proof on a later date, along with discount coupons for "My Pillows"

 The CNN article, which is more complete than what I have provided, can be found here. 

I have seen Mike Lindell's commercial for his Cyber Security expo, and I have to say he does not look good.  I expected a raving loon version of his my pillow advertisements.  But no, he looks exhausted and trapped.  My impression is he painted himself into this corner, and doesn't know how to get out.  

He has bet his honor and his company on this nonsense, and has doubled down on his bet, where he is showing a 2.  It's called the "sunk cost fallacy".  He has invested so much, the only way out is to put more into it and pray.

But that is a fallacy.  What he as spent is gone.  He needs to stop digging the hole deeper so he can climb out and do damage control.  

Additional:

I went to view his Cyber Security Expo.  And it was not held.  Mike is claiming his servers were hacked.  So as of yet, he still has not presented any evidence he claims to have. 

Other lies you may have heard:

The Final Word

Addresses to Vacant Lots

Pennsylvania's Million Vote Dump

Nationwide More Ballots Than Voters

Stuffing the Ballot Box Video

Poll Worker Changing Votes Video

Lies, Damn Lies and Statistics

Votes Changed in Frankfort Germany

PA County with More Ballots Than Voters 

More Votes than Voters in Detroit

More Votes than Voters in Atlanta