2020 Election Lies, The Final Word

The 2020 Election Lies You May Have Heard
The Final Word

On an interview with Sean Hannity, Donald Trump finally admitted he lost the election.  It wasn't stolen, it was lost.  He describes it was shocking, somehow justifying his lies with "And shockingly, we were supposed to win easily at 64 million votes. And we got 75 million votes. And we didn't win..."

So all the trauma he subjected this country to, up to and including a insurrection against the Congress of the United States was because he was "Shocked".

Shocked gets you 3 days of bad behavior.  Maybe a week because it took a while for the official counts were in .  Shocked does not get 2 months of lying to your followers, many who believed your lies in their heart and soul.  And indeed, many still believe them.  

All the while he knew he lost, but "reverted to type".  Which in the past, after all contracts are signed, work is done, and Trump was holding the check for final payment, he would try to rework a deal.  A behavior he proudly describes in his book, "The Art of the Deal".

I had a hard time running down a video of the interview, I tried to find one on Fox News, where it was broadcasted, but no luck.  So this link is for the best I could find on secondary sources..

CNS News

On a side note, Giuliani has been temporarily barred from practicing law in New York for his part in inventing and promoting the many lies he told about the 2020 election.

Other lies you may have heard:

The Final Word

Addresses to Vacant Lots

Pennsylvania's Million Vote Dump

Nationwide More Ballots Than Voters

Stuffing the Ballot Box Video

Poll Worker Changing Votes Video

Lies, Damn Lies and Statistics

Votes Changed in Frankfort Germany

PA County with More Ballots Than Voters 

More Votes than Voters in Detroit

More Votes than Voters in Atlanta 

On the Job Front

 On the Job Front

By the Numbers

There is a lot of numbers on the job front.  Unemployment is going down, jobs are being created, employers cannot find workers.  Workers can't find jobs, workers won't find jobs. These all seem so contradictory.  

And they are.  The only thing the conflicting agendas can agree on is the economy is in a serious churn. And so there are numbers to support every position. 

At the gym, two different news channels.  "559,000 added to the payrolls", which on any other month would be great news, and on the other display the headline reads "-7.6 million since Feb, 2020".    

I do not believe that companies that added 559,000 jobs in a month are not able to find workers.  And I do not believe  "Generous unemployment benefits" kept those workers from seeking, and securing a position.  For those half a million jobs, employers and workers came to an agreement, and are now back in the races.

It's companies that refuse to acknowledge the world has changed.  They are doing things the way they used to, and workers are not accepting it.  Because, in addition to  "Generous unemployment benefits", people have reduced their expenses to a minimum, and are not as desperate to purchase that new toy.  

We survived 16 months of isolation, we can wait a little longer for reality to hit. 

After the Spanish flu pandemic. Wages went up significantly, from below a dollar an hour to about 1.75/hour by 1922.  Employers were desperate for workers, even with a flood of returning soldiers from WWI.  

After the Black Plague worked it's way through Europe.  Wages went up significantly as well.  We are seeing the signs now.  Efficiency has gone up.  So corporate costs are down.  Some of them are using that efficiency to hire top talent at a good price.  Others are waiting for the price of the talent to go down, and they now are complaining when it is not available or sub standard.

Many businesses are trying desperately to fight a rise in the minimum wage.  Many of them may not even have employees making minimum wage on their payrolls.

Why?  Because in this country, you do NOT get what you earn.  You get what you negotiate for.  And negotiation is not a skill set for many.  It certainly isn't one of my best skills.  So you have to start at a number.  And there is an axiom in negotiation.  The first person to put out a number has lost.  And if you find negotiation makes you uncomfortable, that number is out there for you.  

It's $7.25/hr.  That is the number you have to justify in your negotiations that you are worth more than.  Are you worth double minimum wage?  Triple?  Quadruple?  

And someone making $22/hr is doing fairly well on that scale and is probably happy.  But if the minimum wage is now $15, he has to start thinking that he is underpaid and deserves $45/hr.  And he is probably right to do so.  Employers don't want to go through that hell.  

But that's ok, because some other company will pay him $45/hour now.  Or close enough as to not matter. 

That is another reality in today's world.  The only way to get a good raise is from another company. This has been true for decades, but it's going to be more true now.

Employers that hire the talent now are going to succeed, the ones holding on to the old scales are doomed.

Here is my perspective.  I am a contractor.  My previous position ended on 12/2019.  I took a month off, and then the world changed...

I am used to finding work.  I have been doing it since 2004. My skill sets are in high demand, and I am at the top of my field.  Normally it takes me 6 weeks between positions.  

And the positions were being posted, all through Covid I was receiving prospects.  Companies with self described "Urgent Needs".  And I applied and received very few replies.  I probably applied to over a 1,000 positions in 16 months.  And that is not an exaggeration.  I had talked to recruiters and asked what's up?  They all said the companies are not answering back.  They put out requirements, accept names, and nothing.  

So why were companies putting out requisitions?  They think they were building stables of available talent.  So a thousand companies think I'll be available when they are ready, All of them were disappointed.  I still get a dozen prospects a day.

Now we have another case.  A young man, talented, some experience, and a degree in business from a major university.

He can't find a job.  Employers are not calling back.  The same employers that complain they cannot find workers, but ignore the prospects that are answering them.

One explanation is they are used to a lower wage, and don't want new hires locked into a higher tier.  But then the question is, why put out the requisitions at all?  

I don't believe in conspiracies, especially if it covers 10's of thousands of entities.  So I'll look for environmental behavior drivers.  

My current theory is information overload.  If you put out an Facebook ad looking for workers for your company, how many replies did you receive? On the low end 100's.  Could be 1,000's.  On the company's end there is one guy.  How many will he reply too?  10 a day? How many can he interview?  How many are qualified?  This could all be down to percentages.  

Call it chaos theory, or call it luck.  

So the companies that adapt to the new environment will get a head start at this new race.  The others will fall behind.  

So if you are an investor, I would look at a company that complains it cannot find workers and use that as part of the decision tree not to invest.  And look for companies that are quietly moving forward.  

There is no guarantees here, but frankly, they had 16 months to prepare for reopening.  Those that failed to plan on new on-boarding are now flailing in the economic churn.  To those that did plan, the talent is available in numbers, ready for the picking.

Just my 2 cents.

 

 

 

 

 

Coronavirus, the Late June Edition

 

Coronavirus, the Late June Edition

By the Numbers

The overall number of active cases continue to plummet, and I do not use that word lightly. Crashing through the 6 digit figures.  

Date    Calculated umber of active cases (in hundreds of thousands)
6/20            200's
6/12            300's
6/6             400's
6/1             500's
5/29            600's        
5/23            700's
5/21            800's
5/17            900's

=================================================================

Factors in the low number of active cases are, of course, the vaccination rate continues to climb.  (But then, it cannot decline)  And those testing for Covid are increasing coming up negative.  At it's peak in Pennsylvania, 12% of all tests were positive, now the number is 1.5%. 

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The Variants FAQ

Since the Variants are now being identified as Greek letters, here is a chart to help

A) Officially known as B.1.117, formally named as "Kent".  The major vaccines have demonstrated at least 90% effectiveness.  The variant is minorly more infectious and no less lethal.

B) Officially known as B.1.351, formally named as "South Africa".  The major vaccines have demonstrated at least 75% effectiveness.  The variant is minorly more infectious and more lethal.

G) Officially known as P.1, formally named as "Brazil".  The major vaccines have demonstrated at least 95% effectiveness.  The variant is minorly more infectious and no less lethal.

D) Officially known as B.1.617, formally named as "India".  The major vaccines have demonstrated at least 88% effectiveness.  But otherwise this variant is the most infectious, and more lethal. 

E) Officially known as B.1.429.   The major vaccines have demonstrated at least 95% effectiveness.  The variant is minorly more infectious and no less lethal.

I) Officially known as B.1.526.   The major vaccines have demonstrated at least 95% effectiveness.  The variant is minorly more infectious and no less lethal.

Not yet assigned, I guess Californians is fair game to stigmatize.  Officially known as CAL.20C, formally named as "California".  The major vaccines have demonstrated at least 95% effectiveness.  The variant is minorly more infectious and no less lethal.

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In a press briefing on June 22.  Dr Fauci and others mentioned that  20% of Covid survivors, that were asymptomatic during the disease, were later treated or hospitalized for one or more of the "long hauler" symptoms including pneumonia,  shortness of breath, chest pain, and fatigue.

Reported in the Lancet earlier this year, that among the severe Covid cases, 7% suffered a stroke within 6 months.  

A group of researchers in Texas has uncovered genetic manipulation the virus in areas where it was deep seated.

Anecdotal story:  We have a local coach that caught C-19 and his comments afterwards.  "Covid was nothing, but then I caught pneumonia and spent weeks in the hospital."  Mike drop...

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Experimentation on humans is largely regarded as bad thing.  So experimentation mainly takes the form of statistical analysis with attempts to separate all the other causes that may be the root of the problem.

There are those that reject the vaccine, because they do not want to be experimented on.  Well then, welcome to the control group!

The Delta variant, formally known as "India" is now the dominant variant in the UK.  In the US, Delta has taken root in the swaths of unvaccinated population, mostly in the southern areas.  How much more infectious?  How much more lethal?  We are going to find out.  Welcome to the control group!

Brazil's leader has enforced HCQ as the only effective treatment, and his country is paying the price.  They sell it as a cocktail called "Early Treatment".  It is a mix of anti-parasitic, anti-bacterial, vitamins, and HCQ.  Of the first three, none are effective on viruses, and HCQ has been shown in only 1 study to be have some minor efficacy if taken before the disease is caught.  

But this cocktail is the only treatment allowed by the government.  So far, 500,000 have died, and the number of active cases in Brazil has doubled since February.  

So next time someone complains about not allowing HCQ as a treatment, we can reply, "Thank God, look at Brazil!" 

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Anecdotal story: The IT Department in a Florida government building, Manatee County.  Experienced a Covid outbreak of the "Delta" variant.  7 people, all serious cases, 2 dead, 4 more hospitalized.  The only uninfected member of the team was vaccinated. 

They wore masks as mandated indoors, but the general rules do not take into account the time factor.  8 hours exposure with a mask could be like 15 minutes unmasked.  I don't know the exact ratio here, but time is a factor.  That is one reason that wearing a mask outdoors is mostly useless.  If you are just passing an infected person, that 15 seconds is the more dominant factor.   

Statistically, with millions of examples, extreme clusters are going to happen.  That is how random numbers work.  But it is a poignant example, none the less.

Back last year, Dr Fauci tried to explain this, and did so poorly, and was totally taken out of context to mean that masks didn't work.  Then later they claimed he flip flopped.  He didn't change is mind there, but didn't explain very well the time factor.

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What are monoclonal antibodies?  I know I am getting ad's for this treatment, often in the form of "Why doesn't the government want me to be treated with it?" 

First, monoclonal antibodies are clones of the antibodies you want to have to attack the disease in question.  This is not new science.

They have only been tested in mild to moderate cases of Covid.  The company claims 87% reduction of hospitalizations and death.  The FDA tests have 7% deaths in a placebo group vs 2% in the treatment group.  So they do seem effective. 

The FDA has approved their use since February.  So ad's about the government not allowing them are lies.  And frankly, if you lie to me in the headline, I am not interested in reading the text.  Some claims of cures within hours defies credulity.  

It seems that the cost is driving this treatment.  I am seeing $95,000 as a treatment cost.  This explains the excessive advertising. 

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Not Covid related, but I couldn't resist.  

Doctors in Germany had a patient in the emergency room after overdosing on a homeopathic remedy.  

Homeopathic medicine is an extremely diluted solution.  But magically done in a way that maintains the "essence" of the active ingredient, while removing the active ingredient itself.  You will see somewhere on the box a number and an X, euphemistically referred to as "Potency".  6X is common, but it goes up to 30X.  Each 'X' has 1/10th the active ingredient of the previous X.  At around 24X, depending on the amount (18 grams), there is a 50/50 chance of having a single molecule of active ingredient.

The Amazing Randy would prove the ineffectiveness of Homeopathic medicine by taking a whole box or two.  

So this German got a box of incorrectly processed remedy, and started having nerve problems, because it contained about 600 times the normal dosage of atropine normally used to dilate you eyes.  

FYI. Atropine is used to treat soldiers from nerve gas attacks.  But you first have to make sure you have been poisoned, or else the cure will kill you.  

He did live, so no Darwin here.

Coronavirus, the Mid June Edition

Coronavirus, the Mid June Edition

By the Numbers

5,235.   My spreadsheet posted this number without comment, my internal music did not do a fanfare.  Out of habit, I then looked at the calculated* number of  active cases.  And noted in satisfaction that the total dropped into the high 600,000's.  

Then it truly hit me.

5,235.  On Memorial Day, the official count of new Covid cases, NATION WIDE, was just 5,235!

Whoa....

I know I am over emphasizing this.  But you have to understand, I am a numbers guy.  Numbers tell me stories.  And I have been reading this story 15 months.  I have now turned a page to reveal the final chapter.  The American medical system, the hero of this story, after dealing with tragedy, loss, adversity, and incompetency, is working towards the final win.  To use a military metaphor, this is D-Day at Normandy.  We are now on the ground and working towards the final defeat of the villain of this story.

Then for an epilogue, a Marshall plan, to save the rest of the world.  This time with the help of strong allies.

Let me put this in context.  First of all, having a plunge in new cases over a weekend, especially a holiday weekend, is not new, but an aberration of of the statistical accumulation and reporting.  (boy, was that pompous...) More people caught C-19 than was reported.  They will cycle through the system of testing and reporting through the rest of the week.  Typically Thursdays have spikes in the numbers.  And by Thursday, the number had risen to 17,821.  Which was down 22% from the previous Thursday at 22,800.

But the last time I saw a number of new cases with only 4 digits, even on a Sunday, was...

...

Never...

I didn't start logging "New Cases" until Sept. 2020. I did a switch over from reported "Active Cases" to "New Cases" to put some realism into inflated numbers that was reported as currently infected.  On Sept 21, 2020, we had 36,372 new cases.  At that time the new case number was increasing about 2%, per day.  That is a doubling rate of 36 days.  30 days later, the number of new cases was 63,663, and increasing by 3% per day, now doubling every 24 days.

The peak was on January 8th, when the CDC reported 301,000 new cases, of which, around 2,800 would die.

When I first started, my wife asked me why I am doing this?  My reply was, "How can I not do it?"  It was later I realized that just keeping this to myself was a bit of perverse masochism.  And so I started putting out out my reports, first as an email blast to friends, but eventually on the more formal blog post format.

And for the record, looking back at semi-official sources, the last time we saw a 4 digit number of new cases, was Mar 23, 2020.  At that time the number of new cases was growing about 25% per day.

================================================================

On June 6th, the estimated number of cases plunged below 500,000.  Down from a million 3 weeks earlier.  The last time we had that few active cases was April 10th, 2020. By Thursday, June 10th, the number was 428,000.

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The variants of C-19 will no longer be named after their location where first identified, like Kent, South Africa, Brazil or India, but by Greek letters.  Alpha, Beta, Gamma, and Delta.  So we no longer stigmatize the Africans, Brazilians or Indians, but the Greeks are fair game. ;)

There is an official variant identification, like for South Africa, but  B.1.351 just doesn't roll off the tongue like "Beta".

Is this going to work?  Or will it be Pi in the Psi? Or is Alpha nothing?  Or will it Eta way at them?

I think I'll need to put a a Kappa on this.

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An update on the Seychelles Islands, population 98,000.  Since it is an island and as close as possible to an isolated experiment with human subjects.  

Recap:  For most of 2020, The Seychelles shut down all travel, and from what I can see in the charts, had just one case of C-19 until December, 2020.  From Dec to April they had between 0 to 50 new cases reported daily.  From then to the end of April they fought the virus with lock downs and managed to vaccinate 62% of their population.  On April 28, with only 610 active cases, they removed restrictions. Their vaccination rate was the highest in the world, and they had a vested interest in rebooting their tourist industry, they reopened the country.

And the cases exploded 175% to 1,068 in 6 days.

Then it got worse. The day after I reported on this, on May 5th, they added another 500 new cases in a single day.  For comparison, if that percentage was applied to the USA, it would be like adding another 1,500,000 new cases in a single day.   As mentioned above, the USA peaked at 301,000 in a single day.

It has declined since, to between 100 to 200 cases a day.  Their vaccination rate is now 67%.  

This comparison gives evidence that the shutdowns in the USA did prevent a massive pandemic.  Back in Mar, 2020, we were projecting 8 million cases by the end of May.  "Flattening the curve" reduced that to "only" a million.

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The controversy on if the the virus was a natural mutation or not is gaining traction in the media.  First, to be clear, there is no new evidence bring this to the forefront.  

Other than it "just happened", the theories are:

1) China created and released this virus deliberately  

    While China has zero regard for their people, they are not stupid.  If this was an intentional release, they would have released it anywhere but next to one of their labs.

2) China created and released this virus accidentally.

        Various geneticist's have done forensics on the virus and have found no evidence of tampering. 

3) China was studying an unmodified version of the virus and it was released accidentally.

    This could be true.  There is no evidence one way or the other.  China has not been very forthcoming to the investigators.  If it is true, then China looks like bunch of idiots.  

4) The US created the virus and released it in Wuhun to blame China as part of it's ongoing war with China.

    ....

So you'll hear more about this in the news, but what you won't hear is anything new.

As a side note, the above theories have been suggested for all of the disease outbreaks in the last 20 years.  So nothing new there either.

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New Jersey has published information on "Breakthrough" cases of C-19.  IE, people that have been vaccinated but got it anyway.

.06% of the vaccinated group got C-19 anyway.  So 6 in 10,000 totaling 1,319 cases.  505 had symptoms, 92 were hospitalized, 14 died.  The number of actual cases is probably higher for those who had C-19, but didn't seek help, as they had minor symptoms or did recognize them.  

Compared to the expected 95% efficacy rate, this is excellent news.  .06% is about 80 times better than 5%.  Even if the number of "Breakthrough" cases is 10x that number, the efficacy rate is still much better than advertised.

72% of New Jersey is fully vaccinated and their new case numbers are around 200 per day, down from 400 per day 3 weeks ago.

I object to the media term "Breakthrough" cases.  It reeks with hyperbole.  It implies the virus is chiselling away at the vaccine wall.  But what can you do?

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The Texas Experiment continues.  The numbers now reflect the population differences.  PA has 40% the population of Texas.  The numbers represent the average daily new cases.

WeekEnding   Texas    PA
12/14/2020  14,412    10,493 <- PA's worst week
1/11/2021   22,927    8,732 <-Texas's worst week
3/1/2021     7,113    2,614 <-Texas removes all restrictions
3/8/2021     5,413    2,487
3/15/2021    4,437    2,492
3/22/2021    3,647    2,976
3/29/2021    3,443    4,019
4/5/2021     2,816    4,063
4/12/2021    3,467    4,336
4/19/2021    3,013    4,782
4/26/2021    3,095    3,821
5/3/2021     3,106    3,190
5/10/2021    2,200    2,299
5/17/2021    2,075    1,762
5/24/2021    1,666    1,342
5/31/2021    1,234      794
6/7/2021     1,197      487

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The final data is in on traffic deaths in 2020.  It was noted earlier that fatalities per mile were up, but overall miles traveled was down, so overall the roads were safer.

It turns out this was wishful thinking. Both deaths per mile AND total fatalities on the roads were up in 2020.

Total fatalities was up 8% (42,060) in 2020 over 2019, and the fatality rate per 100 million miles traveled is up 24%.  People are taking advantage of the reduced traffic to drive at insane speeds.

One example is in Minnesota.  In 2019, they issued 500 tickets for drivers going over 100mph.  In 2020 that number was 1,068.

* the sum of the last 21 days of new cases, times 6% for serious and ICU cases

Coronavirus the Memorial Day Edition

Coronavirus, the Memorial Day Edition

By the Numbers

We hit a threshold right after last the last edition.  On Monday, May 17, the calculated number of infected went under a million, the growth rate about -.3%.  The last time we were under a million was October 11, when the number of new cases was growing by +3% per day. Then plunged faster than Bitcoin, to 890,000 5 days later, then under 800,000 2 days later (5/24).  As of 5/28 the estimated number of active cases is 729,000.

 

=====================================================================

 

I was on the PA state website regarding C-19, looking at county by county vaccination rates (Montgomery 59%, Chester 66%, Bucks 51%, state overall 41%) and noted a disclaimer on the recovered rate.  PA, like many other states is using an algorithm to determine the actual number of current cases.  Stating that if you haven't died, you recovered.

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As of 5/22, the state with the highest new cases, per capita, is Rhode Island, followed by Washington (state)  and Puerto Rico.

The states are, in order of the highest per capita of new cases

Order Number    State    Estimated 21x * 1.06 new cases   
1    Rhode Island     6,901    0.65%
2    Washington      35,393    0.46%
3    Puerto Rico     13,712    0.40%
4    West Virginia    6,344    0.35%
5    Colorado        18,075    0.31%
6    Delaware         3,005    0.31%
7    Pennsylvania    38,020    0.30%
8    Montana          3,027    0.28%
9    Maine            3,784    0.28%
10    Michigan       28,025    0.28%
11    Illinois       35,015    0.28%
12    Kentucky       12,043    0.27%
13    Wyoming         1,558    0.27%
14    Minnesota      15,115    0.27%
15    Oregon         11,019    0.26%
16    Indiana        17,541    0.26%
17    Florida        52,778    0.25%
18    Nevada          7,435    0.24%
19    Missouri       13,823    0.23%
20    North Carolina 22,705    0.22%
21    Idaho           3,740    0.21%
22    Utah            6,678    0.21%
23    South Carolina     10,418    0.20%
24    North Dakota     1,536    0.20%
25    Alabama     9,861    0.20%
26    Alaska     1,425    0.19%
27    Ohio     22,349    0.19%
28    New Mexico     3,851    0.18%
29    Arizona     12,710    0.17%
30    New York     32,566    0.17%
31    New Jersey     14,514    0.16%
32    Maryland     9,861    0.16%
33    Louisiana     7,568    0.16%
34    Wisconsin     9,038    0.16%
35    Kansas     4,519    0.16%
36    Arkansas     4,474    0.15%
37    Georgia     15,671    0.15%
38    Massachusetts     9,972    0.14%
39    Vermont     868    0.14%
40    Iowa     4,118    0.13%
41    New Hampshire     1,714    0.13%
42    Tennessee     8,526    0.12%
43    Texas     35,060    0.12%
44    Nebraska     2,315    0.12%
45    Connecticut     3,806    0.11%
46    Oklahoma     4,118    0.10%
47    Virginia     8,815    0.10%
48    Hawaii     1,358    0.10%
49    South Dakota     757    0.09%
50    District Of Columbia     601    0.09%
51    Mississippi     2,337    0.08%
52    California     27,224    0.07%

 

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The Texas Experiment continues. The number represented is the daily average of new cases for the week.    So for the first week represented, Texas had 99,223 new cases, or 14,175 per day.

WeekEnding     Texas    PA
12/7/2020     14,175   9,348
12/14/2020    14,412  10,493
12/21/2020    16,467   9,078
12/28/2020    13,270   7,669
1/4/2021      16,891   7,337
1/11/2021     22,927   8,732
1/18/2021     20,734   6,366
1/25/2021     18,815   5,305
2/1/2021      18,267   5,969
2/8/2021      12,487   3,895
2/15/2021    9,410    3,226
2/22/2021    5,012    2,681
3/1/2021     7,113    2,614  << Texas lifts restraints
3/8/2021     5,413    2,487
3/15/2021    4,437    2,492
3/22/2021    3,647    2,976
3/29/2021    3,443    4,019
4/5/2021     2,816    4,063
4/12/2021    3,467    4,336
4/19/2021    3,013    4,782
4/26/2021    3,095    3,821
5/3/2021     3,106    3,190
5/10/2021    2,200    2,299
5/17/2021    2,075    1,762
5/24/2021    1,666    1,342

5/31/2021                   <<PA Lifts restraints

Fully Vaccination Rates

PA   42%

TX   35%
USA 40%

Partially Vaccination Rates

PA   57%

TX   43%
USA 49%

 

The numbers say that Texas was right to lift restraints when they did.

By now, if there was to be a surge, then it would have happened, but Texas's drop in active cases is tracking with the rest of the country.

 

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I was listening to a Planet Money podcast that was interviewing an internet influencer on what message works the best to get people to accept the vaccine.

 

There has been extensive studies with feedback on what it takes.  Carrots or Sticks?  Oddball messages?  Social pressures?

 

Messages that did not work: 

    Shaming by showing what percentage your neighbors are vaccinated.

    Threats

    Offering $20

 

Messages that did work: 

    Telling someone that a dose has been reserved for them, and an appointment. (This worked the best)

     Offering $100

     Offering a free doughnut, every day, at Krispy Kreme.   

          A comment from one of the presenters, "That one is so stupid."  And the influencer being interviewed replied, "I thought so too, but my grandfather said that is why he got his."

 

 Planet money is always a good listen.  This podcast can be found at:

Podcast Article here

 

 

Coronavirus, the Mid May Edition

Coronavirus, the Mid May Edition

By the Numbers

The calculated number of active cases continues to drop. As of May 6th, the number of active cases was the new nationwide low for the year.  The last was on Mar 22 before the "4th", and hopefully last, surge, which was an estimated 1,347,000 afflicted. 

 

I do a calculation based on adding up the previous 3 weeks of new cases, and then multiplying by 1.06 for the estimated long term cases. This is because the various medical systems do not keep good track of the number of recovered individuals, and is why the CDC reports about 7,000,000 cases. They can only report the data they have.

As of May 12th, the estimated number of active cases was at 1,144,000 and falling rapidly.  The number of new cases was less than half the high of the last surge.

My estimated numbers may be off by as much as 20% from reality, and I suspect with better treatments they are, but I am going to ride them out till the end for consistencies sake. Keeping the comparisons "Apples to Apples".

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Even fully vaccinated people need to take care, especially if you are in the high risk category, which almost all of my readers are. (because that is my target group) Enough fully vaccinated people have now died of C-19 to have a reasonably accurate numbers.

The good news is that among the over 110 million fully vaccinated Americans, that the efficacy of the vaccines seems higher than the test groups of last year. In excess of 99% vice of 95%.  But I have suspicions about that.

For those that do catch the virus, the symptoms are much mitigated. More “asymptomatic”, shorter hospital stays, less severity. And most importantly a shorter time of being infectious.

But there are still fatalities. The numbers reported by the CDC is .008% has become infected, and of them, 1% has died. So the odds are 1 in 1,250,000. See the article  here.

I suspect however, that the 99% efficacy number for the fully vaccinated is not accurate. In the case described in the article above, the victim became ill, but was not tested for C-19, because he was vaccinated, and so, was misdiagnosed. He may have been saved otherwise. I suspect the 95% for the testing groups last year is closer to the truth.

Also, I believe that “It can’t be C-19, I’m vaccinated”, is probably a typical mindset.

So keep following the guidelines. Avoidance is still the best tool. Until the number of active cases is low enough that you are unlikely to be exposed in a group.

AND, IF YOU HAVE ANY OF THE SYMPTOMS, GET CHECKED. What bothers me about the numbers is the fatality rate for the vaccinated that catch C-19 is about the same as unvaccinated at 1%.

As of 4/20, 75 million vaccinated, 6,000 fully vaccinated were infected (<.1%) .  Of them, 400 were  hospitalized (<10% of 6,000), 74 died. (>1% 6,000).


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Interesting factoid on how pernicious this virus is. The Seychelles, an island in the Indian Ocean, with a population of 98,000, has vaccinated 62% of its population, the highest rate in the world. But still has had an outbreak in the last few weeks. On April 28, they had 612 active cases, and 6 days later the number grew to 1,068. Forcing them to go back into lock-down.

That is about 1.5% of the unvaccinated population catching the virus in under a week. The main explanation is relaxed restrictions in anticipation of the tourist crowd.

It gives us a perspective of where "Herd Immunity" is. It was hoped that 70% would be enough, but this Seychelles "experiment" belies that.

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Another study has demonstrated that if you have had C-19 previously, then only one of the two-shot vaccines is necessary to get your system up to snuff.

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In it's latest guidelines, the CDC announced that “less than 10 percent” of Covid-19 transmission had occurred outdoors.  Other virologists state that while true, the number is really < 1%.  And those cases were crowds or close conversations.  So enjoy the out doors worry free.

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Since my spread sheet macros are still tracking Texas vs Pennsylvania. Here are the weekly averages up till now. Texas removed all restrictions on Mar 3, PA went to 25% restrictions (??) in Mid April, and plans to remove all restrictions on May 31.

This is an odd decision for PA. On Mar 3, only 3 counties were in the "Red" zone. But with the 4th surge, on April 29, all but 3 counties were back in the "Red" Zone. Counties that are in red zones have more than 100 new cases per 100,000 residents, per week.

Pennsylvania's population is 40% that of Texas, so this means Pennsylvania is more than twice as infected as Texas.

WeekEnding In        Texas       PA
12/7/2020            14,175    9,348
12/14/2020           14,412   10,493
12/21/2020           16,467    9,078
12/28/2020           13,270    7,669
1/4/2021             16,891    7,337
1/11/2021            22,927    8,732
1/18/2021            20,734    6,366
1/25/2021            18,815    5,305
2/1/2021             18,267    5,969
2/8/2021             12,487    3,895
2/15/2021             9,410    3,226
2/22/2021             5,012    2,681
3/1/2021              7,113    2,614
3/8/2021              5,413    2,487
3/15/2021             4,437    2,492
3/22/2021             3,647    2,976
3/29/2021             3,443    4,019
4/5/2021              2,816    4,063
4/12/2021             3,467    4,336
4/19/2021             3,013    4,782
4/26/2021             3,095    3,821
5/3/2021              3,106    3,190
5/10/2021             2,200    2,299

Coronavirus, the Late April Edition

 Coronavirus, the Late April Edition

By the Numbers 

The  nationwide increase in the number of active cases seems to have plateaued, and may be dropping slightly.  From an estimated number of 1,347,000 on Mar 22 to 1,612,000 on April 22.  Down to 1,535,000 on April 27.

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The hold on the J&J one shot vaccine has been lifted.  From what I can dig up, the hold was put on because it was thought a blood clot problem (thrombosis) developed in 7 out of 1,000,000 woman, ages 18-49, 7-14 days after receiving the vaccine.  An that at least 2 of them died. 

Upon review, only 15 cases were identified out of  8,000,000 vaccinated individuals.  All the cases were women, none died.  9 women had low platelet counts (thrombocytopenia).

For more information see: https://www.cnn.com/2021/04/26/health/blood-clots-johnson-johnson-vaccine-wellness/index.html

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The big news is that researchers in Lubbock, Texas, has discovered the mechanism with which Covid causes long term health effects.

The short form, it's editing the genes.

The study refers to patients with chronic long term effects like skin problems, shortness of breath, losing the sense of taste or smell, kidney and lung damage known as "Long Haulers".  I suspect we are going to see more of that word in the future. 

A brief article is at  https://www.studyfinds.org/covid-alters-genes-long-haulers/

While most Long Haulers are in high risk categories for Covid, there is a  growing percentage of people who were otherwise healthy before they became infected. But, the new cases of Covid are more affecting healthier individuals then before. 

Researchers of the BMA (British Medical Association) estimate about 10% of COVID-19 patients become Long Haulers, according to a recent article from The Journal of the American Medical Association and a study done by British scientists. 

Reading some of the research material says that 10% means 10% of all who tested positive have symptoms continuing beyond 12 weeks. Source: the BMJ a journal published by the British Medical Association.